2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

The 2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary took place on the first of February, 2000. New Hampshire traditionally served as the second state in a presidential primary cycle, after Iowa.

Senator John McCain of Arizona, who had diverted resources from Iowa to focus on securing victory in New Hampshire, won a surprising victory, defeating the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Governor George W. Bush of Texas. However, Bush would eventually secure the nomination, going on to be elected president in the general election.

Results
At his hotel in Nashua, McCain reacted to the victory by calling it "a win for the message."

Analysis
McCain's victory was the largest in the New Hampshire primary since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and the second political defeat for George W. Bush. Bush's defeat was one of the worst for a national front-runner in the history of the New Hampshire primary.

McCain won with independents, as expected, with more than sixty percent of their vote, according to surveys conducted by the Voter News Service. Independents accounted for forty percent of the electorate. He surprised observers by winning wide support from faithful Republican Party members, whom the Bush campaign considered reliable voters. The Republican vote was split evenly between Bush and McCain. Moderate voters split more heavily for McCain than conservatives did for Bush.

Bush attributed his upset defeat to McCain's decision to pull resources from the Iowa caucuses early and place relative emphasis on the state. Bush spent thirty-six days campaigning in New Hampshire, while McCain spent more than sixty-five, conducting 114 town meetings with voters. Within the Bush campaign, staff suggested the same, and further suggested that Governor Bush's decision to campaign with his father in the state had reinforced the impression that he was too reliant on the latter's popularity. Dan Balz of The Washington Post suggested that Bush's decision to skip two in-state debates hurt his popularity with local voters.

Aftermath
As a result of McCain's large victory, the Bush campaign placed increased emphasis on the February 19 South Carolina primary, a campaign marked by negative tactics and Bush's emphasis on his evangelical Christian faith.

Following his poor showing in the primary on the heels of a fourth place finish in Iowa, Gary Bauer withdrew from the race and endorsed John McCain.