2002 Portuguese legislative election

The 2002 Portuguese legislative election took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.

With just over 40 percent of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38 percent of the vote. This was the closest legislative election in Portuguese democracy until 2024. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.

As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5 percent of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background
After the disappointing results of the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 elections, the PS government entered in a series of crisis. Resignations of ministers from government and incapacity of passing legislation in Parliament led to controversial, and weird, alliances, like the 2000 and 2001 budgets which were approved by a sole CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) Member of Parliament, Daniel Campelo, in exchange for the government approving a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown, Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district.

Fall of the government
The Socialist Party suffered a big, and unexpected, defeat in the December 2001 local elections. The party lost major cities across the country, mainly Lisbon, Porto, Sintra and Coimbra to the Social Democratic Party. Due to this surprising defeat, Prime Minister António Guterres announced he was to tender his resignation as Prime Minister in order to avoid the country falling "into a political swamp". Shortly after, President Jorge Sampaio accepted Guterres resignation and called snap elections for March 2002.

PSD 2000 leadership election
After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized. In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute. Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:

! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * bgcolor=orange|
 * align=left | José Manuel Durão Barroso
 * align=right | 469
 * align=right | 50.3
 * bgcolor=orange|
 * align=left | Pedro Santana Lopes
 * align=right | 313
 * align=right | 33.6
 * bgcolor=orange|
 * align=left | Luís Marques Mendes
 * align=right | 150
 * align=right | 16.1
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" |  Turnout
 * align=right | 932
 * align=center |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: Results
 * }
 * align=right | 932
 * align=center |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: Results
 * }
 * }

PS 2002 leadership election
Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader, the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, and PS member Paulo Penedos, were the two candidates on the ballot. Around 121,000 PS members were registered to vote. In the end, Ferro Rodrigues got almost unanimous support by being elected with almost 97 percent of the votes. The results were the following:

! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * bgcolor=|
 * align=left | Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues
 * align=right |
 * align=right | 96.5
 * bgcolor=|
 * align=left | Paulo Penedos
 * align=right |
 * align=right | 2.7
 * colspan=2 align=left | Blank/Invalid ballots
 * align=right |
 * align=right | 0.8
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" |  Turnout
 * align=right |
 * align=center |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: Results
 * }
 * align=right |
 * align=center |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: Results
 * }
 * }

Electoral system
The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.

For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:

Parties
The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999–2002) and that also partook in the election:

Opinion polling
The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1999-2002). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

National summary of votes and seats
! rowspan="2" colspan=2 style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left|Parties ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Votes ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|% ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|± ! colspan="5" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align="center"|MPs ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:right;" |MPs %/ votes % ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align=center|1999 ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align=center|2002 ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|± ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|% ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±
 * colspan=11| Portugal Parliament 2002.svg
 * colspan=11| Portugal Parliament 2002.svg
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * 2,200,765||40.21||7.9||81||105||24||45.65||10.4||1.14
 * 2,068,584||37.79||6.3||115||96||19||41.74||8.3||1.10
 * 477,350||8.72||0.4||15||14||1||6.09||0.4||0.70
 * 379,870||6.94||2.1||17||12||5||5.22||2.2||0.75
 * 149,966||2.74||0.3||2||3||1||1.30||0.4||0.47
 * 36,193||0.66||0.0||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * 15,540||0.28||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * 12,398||0.23||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * 11,472||0.21||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * 4,712||0.09||N/A||N/A||0||N/A||0.00||N/A||0.0
 * 4,316||0.08||0.0||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#8b0000 align="center" |
 * align=left|Left Bloc/People's Democratic Union
 * 3,911||0.07||N/A||N/A||0||N/A||0.00||N/A||0.0
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#000080 align="center" |
 * align=left|National Solidarity
 * 0||0.00||0.2||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total valid
 * width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,365,881
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|98.03
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|230
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|230
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|—
 * colspan=2|Blank ballots
 * 55,121||1.01||0.1||colspan=6 rowspan=4|
 * colspan=2|Invalid ballots
 * 52,653||0.96||0.0
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total
 * width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,473,655
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|
 * colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout
 * 8,902,713||61.48||0.4
 * colspan=11 align=left | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }
 * align=left|National Solidarity
 * 0||0.00||0.2||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total valid
 * width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,365,881
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|98.03
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|230
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|230
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|—
 * colspan=2|Blank ballots
 * 55,121||1.01||0.1||colspan=6 rowspan=4|
 * colspan=2|Invalid ballots
 * 52,653||0.96||0.0
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total
 * width="65" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|5,473,655
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|
 * colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout
 * 8,902,713||61.48||0.4
 * colspan=11 align=left | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }
 * colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout
 * 8,902,713||61.48||0.4
 * colspan=11 align=left | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }
 * colspan=11 align=left | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }

Distribution by constituency
!rowspan=2|Constituency!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S!!%!!S !rowspan=2|Total S !colspan=2 | PSD !colspan=2 | PS !colspan=2 | CDS–PP !colspan=2 | CDU !colspan=2 | BE
 * - class="unsortable"
 * - class="unsortable" style="text-align:center;"
 * style="text-align:left;" | Azores
 * style="background:; color:white;"|45.4
 * 3
 * 41.0
 * 2
 * 8.4
 * 1.4
 * 1.4
 * 5
 * style="text-align:left;" | Aveiro
 * style="background:; color:white;"|46.4
 * 8
 * 33.5
 * 5
 * 12.9
 * 2
 * 2.6
 * 1.8
 * 15
 * style="text-align:left;" | Beja
 * 21.2
 * style="background:; color:white;"|43.5
 * 2
 * 3.7
 * 24.2
 * 1
 * 1.9
 * 3
 * style="text-align:left;" | Braga
 * style="background:; color:white;"|44.4
 * 9
 * 37.4
 * 8
 * 9.3
 * 1
 * 4.4
 * 1.7
 * 18
 * style="text-align:left;" | Bragança
 * style="background:; color:white;"|53.2
 * 3
 * 30.0
 * 1
 * 10.9
 * 1.9
 * 0.9
 * 4
 * style="text-align:left;" | Castelo Branco
 * 38.3
 * 2
 * style="background:; color:white;"|46.1
 * 3
 * 7.1
 * 3.3
 * 1.5
 * 5
 * style="text-align:left;" | Coimbra
 * 41.0
 * 5
 * style="background:; color:white;"|41.3
 * 5
 * 6.7
 * 5.1
 * 2.4
 * 10
 * style="text-align:left;" | HS EvoraÉvora
 * 25.3
 * 1
 * style="background:; color:white;"|42.8
 * 1
 * 4.6
 * 21.8
 * 1
 * 1.8
 * 3
 * style="text-align:left;" | Faro
 * 37.7
 * 4
 * style="background:; color:white;"|40.5
 * 4
 * 8.3
 * 6.3
 * 2.8
 * 8
 * style="text-align:left;" | Guarda
 * style="background:; color:white;"|48.5
 * 2
 * 34.7
 * 2
 * 9.6
 * 2.2
 * 1.2
 * 4
 * style="text-align:left;" | Leiria
 * style="background:; color:white;"|50.8
 * 6
 * 29.5
 * 3
 * 9.8
 * 1
 * 4.1
 * 2.2
 * 10
 * style="text-align:left;" | Lisbon
 * 35.7
 * 18
 * style="background:; color:white;"|38.7
 * 20
 * 8.5
 * 4
 * 8.8
 * 4
 * 4.7
 * 2
 * 48
 * style="text-align:left;" | Madeira
 * style="background:; color:white;"|53.5
 * 4
 * 25.8
 * 1
 * 12.1
 * 2.5
 * 3.1
 * 5
 * style="text-align:left;" | Portalegre
 * 30.6
 * 1
 * style="background:; color:white;"|45.2
 * 2
 * 6.4
 * 12.4
 * 1.6
 * 3
 * style="text-align:left;" | Porto
 * 40.0
 * 16
 * style="background:; color:white;"|41.2
 * 17
 * 8.4
 * 3
 * 4.6
 * 1
 * 2.7
 * 1
 * 38
 * style="text-align:left;" | Santarém
 * 38.1
 * 4
 * style="background:; color:white;"|38.4
 * 4
 * 8.4
 * 1
 * 8.6
 * 1
 * 2.9
 * 10
 * style="text-align:left;" | Setúbal
 * 24.7
 * 5
 * style="background:; color:white;"|39.3
 * 7
 * 6.9
 * 1
 * 20.5
 * 4
 * 4.6
 * 17
 * style="text-align:left;" | Viana do Castelo
 * style="background:; color:white;"|45.5
 * 3
 * 35.3
 * 3
 * 10.3
 * 3.5
 * 1.8
 * 6
 * style="text-align:left;" | Vila Real
 * style="background:; color:white;"|54.1
 * 3
 * 31.9
 * 2
 * 8.1
 * 2.0
 * 0.9
 * 5
 * style="text-align:left;" | Viseu
 * style="background:; color:white;"|52.1
 * 5
 * 31.1
 * 3
 * 10.6
 * 1
 * 1.5
 * 1.4
 * 9
 * style="text-align:left;" | Europe
 * 36.9
 * 1
 * style="background:; color:white;"|42.1
 * 1
 * 5.0
 * 4.8
 * 1.1
 * 2
 * style="text-align:left;" | Outside Europe
 * style="background:; color:white;"|66.3
 * 2
 * 21.5
 * 3.4
 * 0.9
 * 0.4
 * 2
 * - class="unsortable" style="background:#E9E9E9"
 * style="text-align:left;" | Total
 * style="background:; color:white;"|40.2
 * 105
 * 37.8
 * 96
 * 8.7
 * 14
 * 6.9
 * 12
 * 2.7
 * 3
 * 230
 * colspan=12 style="text-align:left;" | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }
 * 10.3
 * 3.5
 * 1.8
 * 6
 * style="text-align:left;" | Vila Real
 * style="background:; color:white;"|54.1
 * 3
 * 31.9
 * 2
 * 8.1
 * 2.0
 * 0.9
 * 5
 * style="text-align:left;" | Viseu
 * style="background:; color:white;"|52.1
 * 5
 * 31.1
 * 3
 * 10.6
 * 1
 * 1.5
 * 1.4
 * 9
 * style="text-align:left;" | Europe
 * 36.9
 * 1
 * style="background:; color:white;"|42.1
 * 1
 * 5.0
 * 4.8
 * 1.1
 * 2
 * style="text-align:left;" | Outside Europe
 * style="background:; color:white;"|66.3
 * 2
 * 21.5
 * 3.4
 * 0.9
 * 0.4
 * 2
 * - class="unsortable" style="background:#E9E9E9"
 * style="text-align:left;" | Total
 * style="background:; color:white;"|40.2
 * 105
 * 37.8
 * 96
 * 8.7
 * 14
 * 6.9
 * 12
 * 2.7
 * 3
 * 230
 * colspan=12 style="text-align:left;" | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }
 * 0.4
 * 2
 * - class="unsortable" style="background:#E9E9E9"
 * style="text-align:left;" | Total
 * style="background:; color:white;"|40.2
 * 105
 * 37.8
 * 96
 * 8.7
 * 14
 * 6.9
 * 12
 * 2.7
 * 3
 * 230
 * colspan=12 style="text-align:left;" | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }
 * 230
 * colspan=12 style="text-align:left;" | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
 * }
 * }

Aftermath
After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government, the first since the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the early 1980's. This government was marked by the fragile fiscal and economic situation of the country and the 2003 Casa Pia child sexual abuse scandal. During this government, Portugal became a major ally in the War in Iraq, which divided public opinion. In the 2004 European Parliament election in Portugal, the PSD/CDS–PP coalition Força Portugal suffered a big defeat by gathering just 33 percent of the votes, against the 44 percent of the Socialist Party. A few days later, José Manuel Durão Barroso announced he was resigning from the post of Prime Minister in order to become President of the European Commission. Despite pleas for a snap legislative election from Opposition parties, President Jorge Sampaio decided to nominate the new PSD leader, Pedro Santana Lopes as Prime Minister.

Fall of the government
Santana Lopes government was marked with deep disagreements and disputes within his own party, the Social Democratic Party, which began to damage the government's actions. One of these disputes was the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister, Henrique Chaves, which was a close ally of Santana. This resignation precipitated the fall of the government, with Chaves accusing Santana of not being "loyal and truthful". Just five months after swearing in Santana Lopes as Prime Minister, President Jorge Sampaio gave a speech in which he accused the government of "contradictions and lack of coordination that contributed to its discredit", and used his power of dissolution of Parliament and called a snap election, so far the only time till date such power was used in Portuguese democracy by a President. Santana Lopes disagreed with the President's decision but respected it and announced his resignation. A new election was called, by the President, for 20 February 2005.