2005 California's 48th congressional district special election

In the fall of 2005, a special election was held in California's 48th congressional district to choose a United States representative to replace Republican Christopher Cox, who resigned effective August 2, 2005, to become Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. A Special primary election was held on October 4. Because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, a runoff general election took place on December 6, 2005. The top vote getter from each party moved to the runoff contest, which only required a candidate to receive a plurality of the vote. Republican candidate John Campbell ultimately won the runoff with only 44% of the vote, as there were three major candidates, rather than the usual two.

District geography
The district is located in Orange County in southern California, and includes the cities of Aliso Viejo, Dana Point, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods Lake Forest (formerly known as El Toro), Tustin, and parts of Newport Beach, San Juan Capistrano, and Santa Ana.

Candidates
Ten Republicans qualified for the special primary election. California State Senator John Campbell won the Republican nomination by coming in first in the special primary election. Former State Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer came in second. Other Republican candidates included dentist David R. Crouch, former Tustin councilman John Kelly, attorney Scott MacCabe, attorney Guy E. Mailly, real estate agent Masha A. Morris, businessman Marshall Samuel Sanders, businessman Edward A. Suppe, and physician Don A. Udall.

Four Democrats qualified for the special primary election. Attorney Steve Young, UCI professor John Graham (who ran for the seat in three previous elections against Chris Cox: 2000, 2002 and 2004), teacher Bea Foster, and marketing consultant Tom Pallow.

Real estate agent Bruce D. Cohen of the Libertarian Party and teacher Béa Tiritilli of the Green Party were both unopposed for the nominations of their respective parties. Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist was eventually chosen for the American Independent Party nomination. Former Republican Congressman Bob Dornan also briefly tried to capture the nomination of the American Independent Party, but was rebuffed by the party's leaders. Dornan would later endorse Gilchrist.

Campbell and Brewer were generally considered the frontrunners, with Gilchrist viewed as a possible spoiler against Campbell in the special primary election. Campbell had the backing of many major Republican officeholders, including Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and closely identified with the policies of President George W. Bush. Brewer was considered the more moderate alternative, in favor of abortion and stem cell research and endorsed by Senator John McCain. A sore point for some conservatives in the district was Campbell's position on illegal immigration. Gilchrist ran as a third party candidate primarily on his support for stronger immigration laws.

Political climate
The district is overwhelmingly conservative, with Republicans enjoying a 2 to 1 voter registration advantage (Christopher Cox won his last bid for re-election with 65% of the vote). Most pundits therefore viewed the contest as which Republican candidate would get the honor of filling the vacant seat. Because John Campbell obtained the majority of the endorsements within the Republican establishment, and was able to raise over $2,000,000, it quickly became apparent that Campbell would be destined to win.

Campbell's strategy was to ensure that Jim Gilchrist would not "steal" too many votes that would have otherwise gone to him had Gilchrist not run. Gilchrist for his part, spent $500,000 to ensure that the topic of illegal immigration is prominent in the race. Democratic attorney Steve Young spent a large amount of his own money in the hope that Gilchrist and Campbell will split the conservative vote to a point which would allow him to edge both of them. Although Gilchrist spent more than twice the amount Young spent, Young edged Gilchrist for second place by two percentage points in the December 6 general election.

Campbell's confidence in his victory was quite evident. In September, he skipped a candidate forum, and in November he attended a fundraiser for himself in Washington D.C. in which Dick Cheney was the guest of honor. He also bought a December 7 early morning airplane ticket to Washington days before the December 6 runoff.

Results of special primary election
On October 4, Republican John Campbell garnered 45.5 percent of the vote, 4.5 percent short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff race. He faced the leading vote getter from the four other parties participating: American Independent Jim Gilchrist, Democrat Steve Young, Green Béa Tiritilli, and Libertarian Bruce Cohen in a December 6 runoff.

Results of special general election
The result of the December 6 general election are notable in that Campbell's plurality actually decreased by more than a point, and the combined Democratic total nearly doubled in the general election, with Gilchrist additionally gaining ten points. This would seem to indicate that a large majority of the voters who voted for a Republican candidate other than Campbell in the October 4 special primary election, did not rally behind Campbell in the special general election.

Postscript
Campbell's victory caused a vacancy in the 35th State Senate district. A special primary election was scheduled for April 11, 2006. Two Republicans: Assemblymember and former Huntington Beach, California councilmember Tom Harman, and Dana Point, California councilmember Diane Harkey raised $330,000 and $800,000 respectively for the race (Harkey spent $620,000 of her own money). The Democratic candidate, Larry Caballero, spent virtually nothing. In a race that was largely centered on the issue of illegal immigration, Harman edged Harkey by 236 votes, out of over 98,000 votes cast. Harkey sought a recount of the official results, at a cost of $14,000 (which she had to pay for). The recount did not change the outcome, with Harman's lead shrinking to 225 votes. Harman faced Caballero in a runoff on June 6 and won the race to succeed Campbell by a 2-1 margin.

Harman's election to the State Senate left a vacancy in the State Assembly, which stayed vacant until December 4, 2006, when Jim Silva was sworn in after winning the regularly scheduled election for the seat on November 7.

Government web sites

 * General Election Results from the California Secretary of State
 * Orange County Registrar of Voters
 * Results of October 4 Special Primary Election
 * Results of December 6 Special General Election
 * California Secretary of State site for the Special Election
 * List of certified primary candidates
 * Vacancy Announcement for seat from the U.S. House of Representatives

News media

 * Brewer senses sharks circling her - August 11 Orange County Register article
 * Endorsements for Cox's seat - August 4 Orange County Register article
 * Endorsements start for Cox's seat - August 3 Orange County Register article
 * The changes I've seen - August 2 Orange County Register article by Christopher Cox
 * Cox says he's out of politics - July 30 Orange County Register article

General election candidates

 * John Campbell for Congress web site
 * Bruce Cohen for Congress web site
 * Jim Gilchrist for Congress web site

Defeated special primary election candidates

 * John Kelly for Congress web site