2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background
Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement. There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement. Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary
Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, so Baldwin was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Declared

 * Tammy Baldwin, U.S. representative

Declined

 * Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee
 * Kathleen Falk, former Dane County executive
 * Russ Feingold, former U.S. senator
 * Steve Kagen, former U.S. representative
 * Ron Kind, U.S. representative
 * Herb Kohl, incumbent U.S. senator
 * Gwen Moore, U.S. representative
 * Tim Sullivan, businessman

Republican primary
Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired. Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run. He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.

Declared

 * Jeff Fitzgerald, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly
 * Eric Hovde, businessman
 * Mark Neumann, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998, and candidate for governor in 2010
 * Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin and former secretary of Health and Human Services

Withdrew

 * Frank Lasee, state senator (endorsed Eric Hovde)
 * Kip Smith, physical therapist

Declined

 * Mark Andrew Green, former U.S. representative and former United States ambassador to Tanzania
 * Theodore Kanavas, former state senator
 * Paul Ryan, U.S. representative
 * Tim Sullivan, businessman
 * J. B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general

Polling

 * Commissioned by Eric Hovde

Results
[[File:2012 WI US Senate GOP primary.svg|thumb|Results by county {{legend|#d35f5f|Thompson}}

{{legend|#e9afaf|20–30%}}

{{legend|#de8787|30–40%}}

{{legend|#d35f5f|40–50%}}

{{legend|#c83737|50–60%}}

{{legend|#a02c2c|60–70%}} {{legend|#5f8dd3|Hovde}}

{{legend|#87aade|30–40%}}

{{legend|#5f8dd3|40–50%}} {{legend|#8dd35f|Neumann}}

{{legend|#aade87|30–40%}}

{{legend|#8dd35f|40–50%}} ]]

Candidates

 * Tammy Baldwin (Democratic), U.S. Representative
 * Tommy Thompson (Republican), former governor and former Secretary of Health and Human Services
 * Joseph Kexel (Libertarian), IT consultant
 * Nimrod Allen III (independent), consultant and former Marine

Debates
Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.


 * External links
 * Complete video of debate, September 28, 2012 - C-SPAN
 * Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN
 * Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

Polling

 * with Tammy Baldwin


 * with Russ Feingold


 * with Steve Kagen


 * with Ron Kind


 * with Herb Kohl

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

 * Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
 * Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
 * Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
 * Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
 * Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
 * Iron (largest city: Hurley)
 * Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
 * Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
 * Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
 * Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
 * Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
 * Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
 * Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
 * Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
 * Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
 * Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
 * Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
 * Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
 * Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
 * Waupaca (largest city: New London)
 * Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
 * Adams (largest city: Adams)
 * Marquette (largest city: Montello)
 * Polk (Largest city: Amery)
 * Sheboygan (Largest city: Sheboygan)
 * St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
 * Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
 * Florence (Largest city: Florence)
 * Vilas (Largest city: Eagle River)
 * Fond du Lac (Largest city: Fond du Lac)
 * Green Lake (Largest city: Green Lake)
 * Dodge (Largest city: Juneau)
 * Ozaukee (Largest city: Mequon)
 * Walworth (Largest city: Whitewater)
 * Washington (Largest city: West Bend)
 * Waukesha (Largest city: Waukesha)

By congressional districts
Despite losing the state, Thompson won 5 of 8 congressional districts.

Aftermath
Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."