2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election

The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st Governor of Minnesota as incumbent Democratic governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was congressman Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district while the Republicans nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson. The Independence Party of Minnesota didn't field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election the polls showed Walz ahead and the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.

In the end, Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986. Walz had also received more votes than any gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota's history. This is the first Minnesota gubernatorial election since 1958 where any party won more than two consecutive elections. This was also the first time since 1998 where the party of the incumbent president lost.

Nominated

 * Tim Walz, U.S. Representative
 * Running mate: Peggy Flanagan, State Representative

Eliminated in primary

 * Tim Holden, real estate investor and candidate for Mayor of Saint Paul in 2017
 * Running mate: James P. Mellin II
 * Erin Murphy, State Representative
 * Running mate: Erin Maye Quade, State Representative
 * Olé Savior, perennial candidate
 * Running mate: Chris Edman
 * Lori Swanson, Attorney General of Minnesota
 * Running mate: Rick Nolan, U.S. Representative

Withdrawn

 * Paul Thissen, State Representative, former House Minority Leader, and former Speaker of the House
 * Chris Coleman, former Mayor of Saint Paul
 * Tina Liebling, State Representative
 * Rebecca Otto, Minnesota State Auditor
 * Running mate: Zarina Baber, IT professional

Declined

 * Tom Bakk, Minority Leader of the Minnesota Senate and candidate for governor in 2010
 * Mark Dayton, incumbent governor
 * Debra Hilstrom, state representative and candidate for Secretary of State in 2014 (running for Minnesota Attorney General)
 * Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator (running for re-election)
 * Rick Nolan, U.S. Representative (running for Lieutenant Governor)
 * R. T. Rybak, former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, former Mayor of Minneapolis and candidate for governor in 2010
 * Tina Smith, U.S. Senator (running for election)

Straw poll
On February 6, 2018, the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn will elect state convention delegates who will endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates will endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).

Nominated

 * Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County Commissioner, former state representative, and nominee for governor in 2014
 * Running mate: Donna Bergstrom, retired Marine Corps intelligence officer

Eliminated in primary

 * Mathew Kruse
 * Running mate: Theresa Loeffler
 * Tim Pawlenty, former governor and candidate for President of the United States in 2012
 * Running mate: Michelle Fischbach, incumbent lieutenant governor

Withdrew

 * Phillip Parrish, Naval Reserve intelligence officer and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014
 * Mary Giuliani Stephens, mayor of Woodbury
 * Running mate: Jeff Backer, state representative
 * Christopher Chamberlin (running for MN-05)
 * Matt Dean, state representative
 * Keith Downey, former chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota and former state representative
 * Blake Huffman, Ramsey County Commissioner
 * David Osmek, state senator

Declined

 * Sarah Anderson, state representative
 * Michele Bachmann, former U.S. Representative and candidate for president in 2012
 * Michelle Benson, state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014
 * Kurt Daudt, Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives (Endorsed Pawlenty)
 * Tom Emmer, U.S. Representative and nominee for governor in 2010 (running for re-election)
 * Karin Housley, state senator (running for the U.S. Senate)
 * Amy Koch, former Majority Leader of the Minnesota Senate
 * Mike Lindell, CEO of My Pillow
 * Mike McFadden, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014
 * Carla Nelson, state senator
 * Erik Paulsen, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)
 * Julie Rosen, state senator (endorsed Pawlenty)
 * Rich Stanek, Hennepin County Sheriff and former state representative (running for reelection)

Declared

 * Josh Welter (Libertarian Party)
 * Chris Wright (Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party), Grassroots Party nominee for governor in 1998, 2010 and 2014

Predictions

 * Notes

Debates
The debate season began only three days after the primaries with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held Friday, August 31.

Polling

 * with Erin Murphy and Tim Pawlenty


 * with Lori Swanson and Tim Pawlenty


 * with Tim Walz and Tim Pawlenty


 * with Lori Swanson and Jeff Johnson

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

 * Aitkin (largest city: Aitkin)
 * Big Stone (largest city: Ortonville)
 * Chippewa (largest city: Montevideo)
 * Grant (largest city: Elbow Lake)
 * Itasca (largest city: Grand Rapids)
 * Kittson (largest city: Hallock)
 * Lac qui Parle (largest city: Madison)
 * Marshall (largest city: Warren)
 * Norman (largest city: Ada) (became tied)
 * Pennington (largest city: Thief River Falls)
 * Pine (largest city: Pine City)
 * Pope (largest city: Glenwood)
 * Red Lake (largest city: Red Lake Falls)
 * Stevens (largest city: Morris)
 * Swift (largest city: Benson)
 * Traverse (largest city: Wheaton)
 * Watonwan (largest city: St. James)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

 * Anoka (largest city: Blaine)
 * Dakota (largest city: Lakeville)
 * Olmsted (largest city: Rochester)
 * Washington (largest city: Woodbury)

Results by congressional district
Walz won 5 of 8 congressional districts. Each candidate won a district won by the other party.