2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Bob Corker opted to retire instead of running for a third term. Republican U.S. Representative Marsha Blackburn won the open seat, defeating former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen.

The primaries took place on August 2, 2018, with Blackburn and Bredesen winning their respective party nominations.

Early in the campaign, Bob Corker said that Blackburn's opponent, Democrat Phil Bredesen, was "a very good mayor, a very good governor, a very good businessperson", that he had "real appeal" and "crossover appeal", and that the two of them had cooperated well over the years. But Corker said he would vote for Blackburn and donate to her campaign, and questioned whether Bredesen would be able to win a Senate seat in a red state like Tennessee. After Corker's praise for Bredesen, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned Corker that such comments could cost the Republican Party its Senate majority. Shortly after Corker's comments, Trump tweeted an endorsement of Blackburn.

In October 2018, Tennessean singer-songwriter Taylor Swift endorsed Bredesen. The endorsement was notable given that Swift had previously been publicly apolitical, but spoke out because Blackburn's voting record in Congress "appalled" and "terrified" her. Swift shared a link to the nonpartisan voter registration website Vote.org, which saw a significant spike in page views and new registrations. Donald Trump criticized Swift's endorsement.

This election was expected to be among the most competitive Senate races in 2018, with CNN calling it the single most important Senate race in the country. Polls showed the race as close until the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh started, which many Tennesseans believed the Democratic Party handled poorly. This is believed to have mobilized Republican voters and cost Bredesen any chance of winning. Bredesen also announced his support for Kavanaugh, which some believe cost him supporters.

This was Tennessee's closest Senate race since 2006, with Blackburn winning by a 10.8% margin.

Nominee

 * Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Representative

Eliminated in primary

 * Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver

Withdrawn

 * Bob Corker, incumbent U.S. Senator
 * Rolando Toyos, ophthalmologist and candidate for the Shelby County Commission in 2010
 * Larry Crim, perennial candidate
 * Andy Ogles, former director of the Tennessee chapter of Americans for Prosperity
 * Stephen Fincher, former U.S. Representative

Declined

 * Mae Beavers, former state senator (formerly ran for Governor)
 * Diane Black, U.S. Representative (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)
 * Randy Boyd, former commissioner of the Department of Economic and Community Development (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)
 * Tim Burchett, Knox County Mayor (successfully ran for TN-02)
 * Joe Carr, former state representative, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for TN-06 in 2016
 * Chuck Fleischmann, U.S. Representative (successfully ran for re-election)
 * Mark Green, state senator (successfully ran for TN-07)
 * Beth Harwell, Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)
 * Bill Haslam, Governor of Tennessee
 * David Kustoff, U.S. Representative (successfully ran for re-election)
 * Bill Lee, businessman (successfully ran for Governor)
 * Peyton Manning, retired football player
 * Randy McNally, Lieutenant Governor of Tennessee
 * Ron Ramsey, former lieutenant governor and candidate for governor in 2010

Speculation surrounding Senator Corker
On September 26, 2017, Republican Senator Bob Corker announced that he would not seek another term in 2018. Many called on Corker to reverse his decision to retire. Former U.S. Representative Fincher dropped out of the race, calling on Corker to jump back in and challenge U.S. Representative Blackburn for the GOP nomination. Fincher said in a statement that the GOP should unite "behind a candidate who can win" the general election. Blackburn said she would remain in the race even if Corker reversed his decision. Amid the speculation about Corker's decision, many of Tennessee's Republican politicians, including many in the Tennessee General Assembly, reiterated their support for Blackburn. Corker's chief of staff announced on February 27, 2018, that Corker would stick with his plan to retire.

Results
[[File:Tennessee Senate Republican primary, 2018.svg|thumb|300px|Results by county: Blackburn

{{legend|#d72f30|Blackburn—70–80%}}

{{legend|#c21b18|Blackburn—80–90%}}

{{legend|#a80000|Blackburn—90%}} ]]

Nominee

 * Phil Bredesen, former Governor of Tennessee and former Mayor of Nashville

Eliminated in primary

 * Gary Davis
 * John Wolfe Jr. attorney and perennial candidate

Withdrawn

 * James Mackler, attorney and veteran
 * Bill Bailey, teaching assistant and retired UPS trailer mechanic

Declined

 * Andy Berke, Mayor of Chattanooga
 * Megan Barry, former Mayor of Nashville
 * Jim Cooper, U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1994
 * Karl Dean, former Mayor of Nashville (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)
 * Craig Fitzhugh, Minority Leader of the Tennessee House of Representatives (unsuccessfully ran for Governor)
 * Bill Freeman, businessman and candidate for Mayor of Nashville in 2015
 * Lee Harris, Minority Leader of the Tennessee Senate
 * Jeff Yarbro, state senator
 * Raumesh Akbari, state representative
 * John Ray Clemmons, state representative
 * Tim McGraw, country musician, songwriter and actor

Results
[[File:Tennessee Senate Democratic primary, 2018.svg|thumb|300px|Results by county: Bredesen

{{legend|#3933e5|Bredesen—80–90%}}

{{legend|#0d056c|Bredesen—>90%}} ]]

Independents

 * Dean Hill, US Army Veteran, Ex-Government, Business Owner, Realtor

Debates

 * Complete video of debate, September 25, 2018
 * Complete video of debate, October 10, 2018

Polling



 * with generic Republican and generic Democrat


 * with Bob Corker


 * with Stephen Fincher


 * with Clay Travis

{| class="wikitable" ! Poll source ! Date(s) administered ! Sample size ! Margin of error ! style="width:100px;"| Bob Corker (R) ! style="width:100px;"| Generic Democrat ! Undecided
 * with Bob Corker and generic Democrat
 * - valign=bottom
 * Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)
 * align=center| August 11–13, 2017
 * align=center| 663
 * align=center| ± 3.6%
 * align=center| 47%
 * align=center| 37%
 * align=center| 16%
 * align=center| 16%


 * with Peyton Manning

Results
On November 6, 2018, Blackburn defeated Bredesen in the general election, carrying all but three counties, the largest number of counties ever won in an open senate election in Tennessee. Although polls began to show the race in Blackburn's favor following the Kavanaugh hearings, Blackburn won by a larger margin than all but one poll showed.

By county

 * Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
 * Davidson (largest city: Nashville)