2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania.

Background
Incumbent senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former governor Jim Gilmore. In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election with 49.1% of the vote by a margin of 0.8% against former chairman of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie.

Nominee

 * Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. senator

Republican primary
Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures. The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner. The primary was on June 23.

Nominee

 * Daniel Gade, college professor and U.S. Army veteran

Eliminated in primary

 * Alissa Baldwin, teacher
 * Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer

Failed to qualify

 * Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor
 * Omari Faulkner, Navy reservist and former Georgetown University basketball player
 * Roger Franklin
 * Victor Williams, attorney and activist

Withdrawn

 * Gary Adkins, financial executive
 * John Easley, Republican candidate for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2020
 * Scott Taylor, former U.S. representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district (running for his former House seat)

Declined

 * Nick Freitas, state delegate and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for U.S. House)
 * Corey Stewart, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors

Results
[[File:Virginia Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg|thumb|300px|Results by county: {{legend|#E27F7F|Gade}}

{{legend|#FFB2B2|40–50%}}

{{legend|#E27F7F|50–60%}}

{{legend|#D75D5D|60–70%}}

{{legend|#D72F30|70–80%}}

{{legend|#C21B18|80–90%}}

{{legend|#A80000|90–100%}} ]]

Withdrawn

 * Mary Knapp
 * Aldous Mina, Peace Corps veteran

General election
Virginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie six years earlier was widely considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to this election being held concurrently with the presidential election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, although narrowly.

Warner's victory was largely drawn from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.


 * Complete video of debate, September 23, 2020

Polling

 * Graphical summary


 * with Mark Warner and Generic Republican


 * with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Results

 * Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
 * Chesapeake (independent city)
 * Chesterfield (largest municipality: Chester)
 * Essex (largest municipality: Tappahannock)
 * James City (no municipalities)
 * Loudoun (largest municipality: Leesburg)
 * Lynchburg (independent city)
 * Stafford (largest municipality: Aquia Harbour)
 * Staunton (independent city)
 * Virginia Beach (independent city)
 * Winchester (independent city)


 * Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
 * Alleghany (largest municipality: Clifton Forge)
 * Covington (independent city)