2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

The seat was previously held by Republican John McCain, who won his final term in 2016 and died on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of that year and Ducey replaced him with Martha McSally, who then lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in 2020.

Primaries in Arizona took place on August 2, 2022. Kelly won renomination without opposition, while venture capitalist Blake Masters won the Republican nomination against a large field of candidates. Although Arizona typically leans Republican, Kelly led Masters by low single digits in aggregate polling. Kelly held a significant fundraising advantage until many Republican-aligned groups began spending to assist Masters in the final weeks of the campaign. On November 1, Libertarian nominee Marc Victor dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.

Kelly won re-election, defeating Masters by a comfortable margin of about 5 points. This was the first time Democrats won a full term to this seat since 1962. The 2022 race was competitive and seen as crucial to determining party control of the U.S. Senate; with Kelly's victory in Arizona and a Democratic victory in Nevada, in addition to a Democratic gain in Pennsylvania, it was projected on November 12 that the Democratic caucus would retain control of the Senate in the 118th United States Congress. Masters conceded the race to Kelly on November 15, 2022.

Nominee

 * Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator

Nominee

 * Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation and former chief operating officer of Thiel Capital

Eliminated in primary

 * Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General
 * Jim Lamon, solar power businessman
 * Mick McGuire, retired U.S. Air Force major general and former adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard
 * Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission

Did not file

 * Craig Brittain
 * Robert Paveza, software engineer

Declined

 * Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives
 * Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for AZ's 5th congressional district
 * Doug Ducey, outgoing Governor of Arizona
 * Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (ran for governor)
 * Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain
 * Martha McSally, former U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–2020)
 * Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018
 * Kimberly Yee, State Treasurer of Arizona (ran for re-election)

Polling

 * Aggregate polls
 * Graphical summary

Results
[[File:2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Arizona results map by county.svg|thumb|upright|210px|Republican primary results by county {{legend|#e27f7f|Masters}}

{{legend|#ffc8cd|30–40%}}

{{legend|#ffb2b2|40–50%}} {{legend|#ff9955|Lamon}}

{{legend|#ffcca9|30-40%}}]]

Nominee

 * Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 (withdrew from general election, endorsed Blake Masters)

General election
In what was initially expected to be one of the most widely contested elections in the nation, Kelly amassed a massive fundraising advantage over Masters, raising a record $75 million compared to Masters's $12 million. Due to the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade, Kelly spent the campaign heavily attacking Masters over his anti-abortion stance, which was seen as hurting Masters especially among women voters. He also attacked Masters's support for privatizing Social Security, as Arizona has many retired seniors who use the program. Masters's claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen also hurt him among voters.

With the limited amount of money he had, Masters attempted to portray Kelly as weak on illegal immigration, supportive of spending programs that caused inflation, and too supportive of President Joe Biden. In the final weeks of the campaign, Republican groups began to increase the amount of money they were spending on the race, and many news outlets moved the race from lean Democrat to tossup. However, in the end, Kelly relatively easily defeated Masters, which helped Democrats in retaining the Senate. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Masters's defeat.

Polling

 * Aggregate polls
 * Graphical summary


 * Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
 * Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
 * Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
 * Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs


 * Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
 * Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
 * Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
 * Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
 * Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
 * Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
 * Mark Kelly vs. generic opponent
 * Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

By congressional district
Kelly won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.