2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman won his first term in office, defeating Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz. Fetterman succeeded incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey, who did not seek re-election after two terms. This was the only U.S. Senate seat to flip parties in the 2022 midterms.

In the May 17 primary, Fetterman won the Democratic nomination with 59% of the vote. Oz finished with a 0.1% margin ahead of businessman David McCormick in the Republican primary, triggering an automatic recount. McCormick conceded the nomination on June 3, making Oz the first Muslim candidate to be nominated by either major party for U.S. Senate.

The general election was among the most competitive of the 2022 midterms and characterized as highly contentious. Fetterman framed Oz as an elitist carpetbagger with a radical anti-abortion stance in the wake of Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade, while Oz framed Fetterman as a socialist insufficiently committed to fighting crime. Fetterman's health was also a major issue due to him suffering a stroke days before his primary victory. Although Fetterman led most pre-election polls, concerns towards his health and a scrutinized debate performance helped Oz take a narrow lead before the election.

Despite Oz's lead in final polls, Fetterman won by a 5% margin, helping provide Senate Democrats a net gain of one seat and their first outright majority since 2015. With Fetterman's victory, elected Democrats held both US Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947.

Early campaign
In October 2020, incumbent Republican senator Pat Toomey decided not to run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.

By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former president Donald Trump, emerged as the race's front-runners. However, Parnell's campaign faced a large scandal in November 2021, after his ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court during a custody hearing for the couple's children that Parnell had strangled and spat on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion". Parnell denied the allegations under oath. Even before these allegations were made, doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's fundraising ability, and it became widely assumed that he would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children. On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the couple's children and Parnell suspended his campaign.

Entry of Oz and McCormick
On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy. Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020. The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick, a businessman, into the race prompted attacks for McCormick's past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies. Super PACs allied to McCormick hit back with a spate of well-funded television advertisements, accusing Oz of being a "Hollywood liberal."

Republican straw polls in January 2022 indicated strong support for Bartos and political commentator Kathy Barnette among party activists as the campaign started to escalate. Bartos won the Republican State Committee Central Caucus's straw poll, placing first with 49 votes, while Barnette finished in second place with 30 votes. McCormick and Sands trailed at third and fourth place; and Oz and former Boxing Commissioner George Bochetto performed poorly, each receiving only one vote. Despite this, political commentators largely considered Oz and McCormick to be the frontrunners, with the other candidates trailing them.

The McCormick campaign targeted Oz's ties to Turkey and called on him to renounce his Turkish citizenship, accusing Oz of harboring dual loyalties. Oz later stated that if he were elected to the Senate, he would renounce his Turkish citizenship. Former president Trump endorsed Oz on April 10, citing the popularity of his television show and perceived appeal to female voters. Oz frequently highlighted this endorsement, it becoming one of his major talking points during the campaign.

Late campaign
Oz had been ahead of the other candidates in the polls since the start of his campaign, with McCormick soon rising quickly in the polls to challenge Oz, with both men polling the low 20s. Barnette had also begun to rise in the polls at this point after a string of attention-getting debate performances and an ad spend in support of her by the Club for Growth. Her late surge prompted a change in tactics from the two frontrunners, who had largely ignored her as irrelevant until then. Pro-Oz Super PAC American Leadership Action launched an ad campaign accusing Barnette of supporting Black Lives Matter, while McCormick stated that Barnette was unelectable, citing her heavy loss in a U.S. House race the previous election cycle. Oz himself also accused Barnette of Islamophobia, pointing to a 2015 tweet in which she stated, "Pedophilia is a Cornerstone of Islam."

Nominee

 * Mehmet Oz, host of The Dr. Oz Show and former cardiologist

Eliminated in primary

 * Kathy Barnette, Armed Forces Reserves veteran, author, political commentator on Fox News, and 2020 nominee to represent Pennsylvania's fourth district in the U.S. House of Representatives
 * Jeff Bartos, businessman, philanthropist and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018
 * George Bochetto, Pennsylvania State Boxing Commissioner (1996–2002)
 * Sean Gale, candidate for the Montgomery County Commission in 2019
 * David McCormick, U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009) and CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022)
 * Carla Sands, U.S. Ambassador to Denmark (2017–2021)

Disqualified

 * John Debellis, small business owner
 * John Eichenberg, truck driver
 * Robert Jeffries, perennial candidate
 * Ron Johnson, former Fredonia borough councilor (ran as the Constitution nominee)
 * Richard Mulholland, HVAC technician
 * Max Richardson
 * Martin Rosenfeld, Elk County deputy sheriff and treasurer of the Elk County Republican Party
 * David Xu, U.S. Army veteran, college professor and IT business owner

Withdrew

 * Sean Parnell, U.S. Army veteran, author, and nominee for PA's 17th congressional district in 2020 (endorsed McCormick)
 * Craig Snyder, former chief of staff to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter
 * Everett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and candidate for PA's 13th congressional district in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (ran as an independent)

Declined

 * Kenneth Braithwaite, U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2020–2021), U.S. Ambassador to Norway (2018–2020), and former advisor to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter
 * Mike Kelly, U.S. representative for PA-16; formerly PA's 3rd congressional district (2011–present) (endorsed Parnell)
 * Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for Policy at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2019–2021), and candidate for governor in 2018
 * Keith Rothfus, U.S. representative for PA's 12th congressional district (2013–2019)
 * Kiron Skinner, Taube Professor of International Relations and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University and former Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department (2018–2019)
 * Pat Toomey, incumbent U.S. senator
 * Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump (endorsed Parnell)

Polling

 * Graphical summary

Results
Following the first night of results, it became clear that Oz and McCormick were the top two vote-getters in the election; however, the margin between them was too close to declare a victor. A mandatory recount then began. Former president Trump encouraged Oz to declare victory on election night, stating that Oz would only be defeated as a result of election fraud; these claims were noted by Politico as echoing Trump's baseless claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential election. With McCormick having done better with mail-in ballots, Oz opposed counting ballots which were received by election offices before election day but were missing dates on the envelopes. A state court later required counties to count undated ballots as valid.

On June 3, McCormick conceded to Oz, saying he could not make up the deficit in the recount. [[File:2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg|thumb|Results by county: {{legend|#e27f7f|Oz}}

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Campaign
The first two major Democratic candidates were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta. Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics. By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising. U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a political moderate, entered the race on August 6, 2021.

As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle. On February 4, 2022, Arkoosh withdrew from the race, her campaign having previously suffered from poor poll results and low support from party activists, leaving Kenyatta as the only major candidate from the Philadelphia region. Both Kenyatta and Lamb were considered to have a good chance at picking up voters who had previously supported Arkoosh, Lamb for ideological reasons and Kenyatta for geographical ones.

In addition to Fetterman, Kenyatta, and Lamb, two minor candidates also made the Democratic primary ballot, namely Kevin Baumlin, a hospital physician, and Alexandra Khalil, a municipal official. Baumlin withdrew from the race on March 31, leaving only Khalil in addition to the three major candidates.

Lamb received the assistance of the “Penn Progress” Super PAC, which spent the entirety of its funds in support of Lamb's campaign. Lamb worked closely with the Super PAC, and participated in donor calls it arranged. The Penn Progress Super PAC bankrolled TV ads which sought to portray Fetterman as a "self-described democratic socialist." Within a day of airing, PolitiFact and Factcheck.org called the attack ad false, The Philadelphia Inquirer commented that Fetterman had never actually described himself that way, the ABC affiliate in Philadelphia stopped broadcasting the ad, and Senator Elizabeth Warren called on Lamb to disavow it.

Nominee

 * John Fetterman, Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019–2023), former mayor of Braddock (2005–2019) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Eliminated in primary

 * Malcolm Kenyatta, state representative for the 181st district (2019–present)
 * Alexandria Khalil, Jenkintown borough councilor (2019–present)
 * Conor Lamb, U.S. representative for PA's 17th congressional district, formerly PA's 17th congressional district (2018–2023)

Disqualified

 * Kael Dougherty, data operations associate
 * Larry Johnson, attorney
 * Alan Shank, retail worker
 * Walter Sluzynsky, postal worker
 * Lew Tapera, retail worker

Withdrew

 * Val Arkoosh, member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2014–present) and physician
 * Kevin Baumlin, chief of Emergency and Urgent Care Services at Pennsylvania Hospital
 * John McGuigan, former president of the Norristown Municipal Council (1994–1997)
 * Eric Orts, professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (endorsed Kenyatta)
 * Sharif Street, state senator for the 3rd district (2017–present), vice chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, son of former mayor of Philadelphia John Street (endorsed Lamb)

Declined

 * Brendan Boyle, U.S. representative for PA's 2nd congressional district; formerly PA's 13th congressional district (2015–present)
 * Madeleine Dean, U.S. representative for PA-04 (2019–present) (ran for re-election)
 * Eugene DePasquale, Pennsylvania Auditor General (2013–2021) and nominee for PA's 10th congressional district in 2020
 * Chrissy Houlahan, U.S. Representative for PA's 6th congressional district (2019–present) (ran for re-election)
 * Jim Kenney, Mayor of Philadelphia (2016–2024) (endorsed Lamb)
 * Joe Sestak, U.S. representative for PA's 7th congressional district (2007–2011), former Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016, and candidate for president in 2020
 * Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–2023) (ran for Governor) 
 * Joe Torsella, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2017–2021)
 * Susan Wild, U.S. representative for PA's 7th congressional district; formerly PA's 14th congressional district (2018–present) (ran for re-election)

Polling

 * Graphical summary

Results
Fetterman won the Democratic primary by a landslide, winning all 67 counties in Pennsylvania, with Lamb in second place. Lamb's loss was attributed by Vanity Fair to numerous reasons, such as his not being known to voters in the Delaware Valley region of eastern Pennsylvania, where the majority of Democratic voters were located, while in contrast Fetterman's position as lieutenant governor gave him statewide name recognition. In addition, the far more contested Republican primary had consumed media attention that Lamb might have otherwise used to gain more name recognition. Fetterman was also widely considered to have run an effective populist campaign, with The Atlantic noting that his campaign focused on the issues of "workers, wages and weed". [[File:2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg|thumb|Results by county {{legend|#7996E2|Fetterman}}

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Libertarian convention
The Libertarian Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.

Nominee

 * Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, small business owner, and candidate for president in 2020

Withdrew

 * Steve Scheetz, powder coater and former chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party (2013–2015, 2019–2021)

Green convention
The Green Party nominee qualified for the general election ballot on August 1.

Nominee

 * Richard L. Weiss, lawyer, nominee for attorney general in 2020, and nominee for judge of the Allegheny County Court of Common Pleas in 2021

Qualified for ballot

 * Dan Wassmer (Keystone nominee), lawyer and Libertarian nominee for attorney general in 2020

Declared write-in

 * Ron Johnson (Constitution nominee), former Fredonia borough councilor (originally ran as a Republican)
 * Quincy Magee, inspector of elections for Philadelphia's 44th ward

Withdrew

 * Everett Stern, whistleblower, private intelligence agency owner, and Republican candidate for PA's 13th congressional district in 2014 and U.S. Senate in 2016 (originally ran as a Republican, endorsed Fetterman)

Campaign
Fetterman's campaign framed Oz as a wealthy outsider who lived outside of Pennsylvania before 2020, including by airing ads that note his past residency in New Jersey. Fetterman also flew banners and published social media posts described by The Hill and The Washington Post as "trolling" his opponent. In one post, Fetterman started a petition to get Oz inducted to the New Jersey Hall of Fame. In response to the carpetbagging criticisms, Oz said during the primary debate that Pennsylvanians "care much more about what I stand for than where I'm from".

Oz's campaign criticized Fetterman for being inactive since he suffered a stroke in May and made an issue of Fetterman's health. In September, Oz published his medical records, which prompted Fetterman to state he was medically cleared to serve in the Senate. Oz's campaign also framed Fetterman as a socialist, highlighting his endorsement of Bernie Sanders in 2016. Fetterman countered that he has differences in policy proposals with Sanders in issues such as fracking.

Fetterman's refusal to debate Oz until late October was criticized by Oz's campaign. Fetterman attributed the delay in debating to lingering issues from his stroke and his team criticized debate concessions from Oz's team for allegedly mocking Fetterman's stroke recovery. A single debate was held on October 25.

Crudités video
On August 15, 2022, an April 2022 campaign video of Oz shopping in a Redner's Warehouse supermarket went viral. In the video, Oz says he is shopping for produce to make crudités and attributes the allegedly high prices to Democratic president Joe Biden.

The video was widely ridiculed on social media and was the subject of several news articles. Most observers focused on Oz's usage of the French term "crudités", his choice of items, and several factual errors; Fetterman himself replied saying that Pennsylvanians refer to crudités as "veggie trays". Oz's choice of a raw head of broccoli, asparagus, and multiple pounds of carrots, with guacamole and salsa, was described as "bizarre" by many. Others expressed confusion at Oz's statement that the $20 cost of the vegetables and dips "doesn't even include the tequila", as tequila is not a traditional accompaniment to crudités and liquor is not sold in grocery stores in Pennsylvania. Many observers noted Oz quoted the wrong price tag for the salsa and falsely suggested the broccoli was $2 per head when it was $2 per pound.

The number of internet searches for crudités dramatically increased in the aftermath of the video's circulation. Oz appearing to confuse the Redner's and Wegmans supermarket chains led to the name "Wegner's" trending on Twitter and a parody Twitter account called "Wegner's Groceries" gaining popularity. The Fetterman campaign sought to capitalize on the video by introducing merchandise referencing it. When asked if the video made him unrelatable to voters, Oz emphasized he helped others throughout his career and would continue to help if elected.

Debate
In the October 25 debate, a special arrangement of transcription monitors was put in place to assist Fetterman with his auditory processing issue. According to the Associated Press, Fetterman "struggled at times to explain his positions and often spoke haltingly", with Fetterman facing issues completing sentences and frequently pausing after questions were asked. Oz was described as being "more at home on the debate stage" and presented himself as a moderate Republican, and did not reference Fetterman's health condition. Independent health experts said that Fetterman was recovering "remarkably well". Fetterman particularly struggled answering a question regarding his previous opposition to fracking by stating he always supported fracking, while Oz answered a question on abortion by saying that the federal government should have no role in states' abortion decisions, instead leaving abortion decisions to "women, doctors, [and] local political leaders".

According to Politico and The Guardian, Fetterman "struggled" during the debate, and some Democrats questioned why he chose to debate at all. After the debate, the Fetterman campaign claimed that the closed captioning system provided by Nexstar Media Group gave incorrect and slow captions. Nexstar denied the claims, arguing the captioning "worked as expected" and that the Fetterman team had had the opportunity for two rehearsals with the equipment and opted to only do one.

Polling

 * Aggregate polls
 * Graphical summary


 * Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
 * Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
 * Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
 * Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb

Results
Fetterman won the election by 4.9 percentage points, and was declared the winner in the early hours of November 9. The early victory came as a shock to many pundits, as the race was expected to take several days to project a winner; the race was one of the first signs of the coming Democratic overperformance relative to the final polls in the midterms writ large. Oz underperformed former Republican president Donald Trump's performance in the 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania by 3.7 percentage points, while overperforming Republican nominee Doug Mastriano in the concurrent gubernatorial race by 10 percentage points. As a result of this election, Democrats would be elected to both U.S. Senate seats from Pennsylvania for the first time since 1947, and from this seat since 1962. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Fetterman won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Oz's defeat.

By county

 * Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
 * Bucks (largest municipality: Bensalem)
 * Centre (largest municipality: State College)
 * Chester (largest municipality: West Chester)
 * Dauphin (largest municipality: Harrisburg)
 * Erie (largest municipality: Erie)
 * Northampton (largest municipality: Bethlehem)

By congressional district
Fetterman won 10 of 17 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.

Voter demographics
Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 2,660 voters in person as well as by phone.