2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election

The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Had Cameron won, he would have become Kentucky's first African-American governor.

This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. The other was held in Louisiana, which Jeff Landry flipped for the Republicans.

This was the first gubernatorial election in the state's history in which both major party candidates had previously held the position of Attorney General; Beshear held the position from 2016 to 2019, after which he was succeeded by Cameron.

Beshear's victory has been attributed to his broad popularity among Democrats and independents, as well as approximately half of Republicans in the state. Compared to 2019, Beshear most improved his performance in suburban precincts; he increased his margins by nearly 6 percentage points in suburban areas, compared to 4.5 percentage points in urban and rural precincts.

Background
A socially conservative southern state, Kentucky is considered safely Republican in federal elections, with Republicans holding both of its U.S. Senate seats and all but one of its U.S. House seats. In the 2020 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 26 percentage points. However, the state was much more competitive as recently as the 1990s, when it voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Democrats remain competitive in many local and some state-level elections.

Beshear was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating incumbent Republican Matt Bevin, who had become widely unpopular for signing a pension reform bill for teachers and opposing a subsequent teachers' strike. In that same year, Cameron was elected Attorney General, becoming the first African-American to be elected to that position.

Cameron gained national recognition as Attorney General, especially due to his involvement in the Breonna Taylor case in 2020. He spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention on August 25, 2020. In September 2020, Cameron appeared on a shortlist of potential nominees to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court by President Trump.

On May 16, 2023, Cameron won the Republican nomination with 47.7% of the vote, a 26% margin over the second-place candidate, and Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 91.3% of the vote over two perennial candidates.

Nominee

 * Andy Beshear, incumbent governor
 * Running mate: Jacqueline Coleman, incumbent lieutenant governor

Eliminated in primary

 * Peppy Martin, businesswoman, consultant, perennial candidate, and Republican nominee for governor in 1999
 * Geoff Young, perennial candidate

Fundraising
Beshear is the only candidate who has filed a financial disclosure.

Results
[[File:2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election Democratic primary results map by county.svg|thumb|250px|Results by county: {{legend|#7996e2|Beshear}}

{{legend|#584cde|70–80%}}

{{legend|#3933e5|80–90%}}

{{legend|#0d0596|90–100%}} ]]

Nominee

 * Daniel Cameron, Attorney General of Kentucky

Eliminated in primary

 * Jacob Clark
 * David Cooper, member of the Kentucky Army National Guard
 * Kelly Craft, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
 * Running mate: Max Wise, state senator
 * Eric Deters, suspended attorney
 * Running mate: Wesley Deters, former Park Hills city councilor (no relation to Eric Deters)
 * Bob DeVore, former McCreary County school board member and perennial candidate
 * Mike Harmon, Kentucky State Auditor
 * Alan Keck, mayor of Somerset
 * Dennis Ormerod
 * Ryan Quarles, Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture
 * Johnny Rice, militia activist and former police officer
 * Robbie Smith, high school teacher

Did not file

 * Anthony Moore, wellwater drilling contractor

Withdrew

 * Savannah Maddox, state representative

Declined

 * Ralph Alvarado, state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2019 (appointed commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health)
 * Allison Ball, Kentucky State Treasurer (running for state auditor)
 * Matt Bevin, former governor
 * James Comer, U.S. Representative for KY's 1st congressional district and candidate for governor in 2015 (endorsed Craft)
 * Max Wise, state senator (ran for lieutenant governor with Craft)

Fundraising
Financial disclosures for major candidates are below:

Results
[[File:2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election Republican primary results map by county.svg|thumb|250px|Results by county: {{legend|#e27f7f|Cameron}}

{{legend|#ffc8cd|30–40%}}

{{legend|#ffb2b2|40–50%}}

{{legend|#e27f7f|50–60%}}

{{legend|#d75d5d|60–70%}} {{legend|#ff9a50|Quarles}}

{{legend|#ffcca9|30–40%}}

{{legend|#ffb580|40–50%}} {{legend|#5fd3bc|Craft}}

{{legend|#afe9dd|30–40%}}

{{legend|#87decd|40–50%}}

{{legend|#5fd3bc|50–60%}} ]]

Polling

 * Graphical summary


 * Andy Beshear vs. Kelly Craft


 * Andy Beshear vs. Mike Harmon


 * Andy Beshear vs. Ryan Quarles

Results
Beshear won re-election by a 5% margin. Key to his victory was his performance in the state's two most populous counties, Jefferson and Fayette (home to the cities of Louisville and Lexington, respectively), each of which he carried with more than 70% of the vote. Beshear also over-performed in several Republican-leaning suburban counties in Northern Kentucky and the Bluegrass region, and in several historically Democratic rural counties in the Eastern Coalfield which have swung sharply towards the Republican Party in the 21st century. Beshear's gains in the Eastern Coalfield were attributed to his response to flooding in the region in 2022.

By congressional district
Despite winning the election, Beshear won only two of the state's six congressional districts, including one represented by a Republican.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

 * Boyle (Largest city: Danville)
 * Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
 * Clark (Largest city: Winchester)
 * Daviess (Largest city: Owensboro)
 * Letcher (Largest city: Jenkins)
 * Nelson (Largest city: Bardstown)
 * Perry (Largest city: Hazard)
 * Powell (Largest city: Stanton)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

 * Carter (Largest city: Grayson)
 * Hancock (Largest city: Hawesville)