2023 Rolling Fork–Silver City tornado

On the evening of March 24, 2023, a large and destructive multi-vortex tornado struck the communities of Rolling Fork and Silver City, Mississippi, killing 17 people and injuring at least 165 others. The tornado was the strongest and deadliest of a widespread tornado outbreak in the Southern United States between March 24–27, 2023. The tornado damaged or destroyed much of Rolling Fork, with the most intense damage leading the National Weather Service to assign a rating of high-end EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, with maximum windspeeds estimated at 195 mph. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration‘s finalized damage survey by county:

Meteorological synopsis
On March 18, an upper-level trough was situated across the Western United States. As time progressed, the trough began to progress to the east. By March 20, forecasters at the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center were calling attention to "some potential for discrete storms" in Mississippi on March 24 ahead of the cold front, their severity contingent on prior destabilization of the atmosphere.

On March 22, the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a level 3/enhanced risk of severe weather across portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi for supercell thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes (EF2+ on the Enhanced Fujita scale). The enhanced risk was expanded northward the following day, and the original outlined area was upgraded to a level 4/moderate risk.

On March 24, water vapor imagery showed a potent mid-level trough. Strong mid-level winds between the trough and strong high-pressure area across the Southeastern United States were displaying in models as well. Meanwhile, a quickly deepening low-pressure area was expected to drag a warm front northward, leading to a broad, unstable air mass to its south. Although some reduction in moisture was expected across Mississippi due to drier air aloft and warm surface temperatures into the 80s Fahrenheit, continued advection of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico seemed supportive of dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70's across Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi by the evening hours. Thus, mixed-layer convective available potential energy was expected to rise into the 1,500–2,000 J/kg range. Forecasters initially thought that strong forcing of ascent across Arkansas would lead to an organized squall line capable of both tornadoes and damaging winds, whereas more discrete supercells would be possible farther south, particularly along north–south oriented confluence bands in the open warm sector. The tornado threat relied on the amount of wind shear in the lower levels, which would aid in sustaining supercells.

Storm development
A tornado watch was issued at 5:15 p.m. Central Daylight Time (UTC−5) for portions of eastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, central and northern Mississippi, and western Tennessee. The watch mentioned the possibility of several strong to intense tornadoes with persistent supercells. Clusters of storms evolved along the confluence bands in conjunction with improving wind shear profiles. However, given their displacement from the surface low and better forcing, there was some uncertainty as to whether they would become better organized. A strengthening low-level jet and surface moisture increased confidence in the maturation of these cells, but tornadic development had not yet begun in the area as of 00:00 UTC.

At their 01:00 UTC outlook, the SPC lowered the probability of tornadoes to a 10% (significant) tornado area, thus downgrading the moderate risk to an enhanced risk. The SPC cited weaker than expected instability in the area, with increased confidence in only limited buoyancy developing. However, the same update noted that "a couple of longer-track supercells" and "a few strong tornadoes" remained possible.

As the update was being issued, a strong supercell evolved near the Louisiana-Mississippi border. By 7:57 pm. CDT, a strong velocity couplet formed at the base of the supercell, and at 8:04 pm, as the storm approached the town of Rolling Fork, a tornado emergency was placed. The storm then began producing the long-tracked and deadly high-end EF4 tornado that struck Rolling Fork, Midnight, and Silver City, inflicting catastrophic damage and causing over a dozen fatalities. While the violent EF4 tornado was on the ground, Harry Weinman, a forecaster at the SPC, issued a special meso-gamma mesoscale discussion for the tornado. In the discussion, the SPC stated that radar showed debris was being lofted at least 13000 ft into the air and that a vertical rotation of 70 kn was also being detected. The SPC also indicated that this was likely an intense tornado, at least EF3, solely based on the Doppler radar data. The discussion concluded by noting that the downstream atmospheric environment would allow the storm producing the violent EF4 tornado to persist for 30 to 60 minutes.

Formation
The tornado first touched down in Issaquena County, southeast of Mayersville, which is east of the Mississippi River. The exact location of where the tornado touched down has been debated between academic scholars; its official touch down point was placed south-southwest of the intersection of Turner Road and Grant Road. It tracked northeastward and caused EF1 damage to trees, a power pole, and outbuildings as it crossed Grant Road before moving through the Steele Bayou Canal and into Sharkey County, downing trees at EF1 intensity. The tornado then rapidly grew in size and strength as it approached Rolling Fork from the southwest, snapping and uprooting many trees in a wooded area at EF2 to EF3 intensity, including some that sustained debarking. The tornado reached EF4 intensity and produced violent tree damage as it exited the wooded area, where severe debarking occurred, one tree was ripped out of the ground by its root ball, and pieces of shredded trees were thrown into an adjacent field. EF1 to EF2 damage occurred farther from the center of the tornado's damage path as it crossed Bear Lake Road, where a house lost its roof and exterior walls, and two residences west of that home lost significant portions of their roof covering. A mobile home was also rolled in this area. At that time, violent rotation of radar paired with a debris signature prompted the issuance of a tornado emergency by the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi; the tornado would remain under this tag for most of its existence.

As it reached the southwestern outskirts of Rolling Fork, the tornado moved directly through the Indian Bayou subdivision along Pinkins Road at EF4 intensity, where every single home (about 15 in all) was leveled, and a few were swept away. Most of the homes in the area were poorly constructed or were manufactured homes, though one frame home at this location was well built enough to earn a low-end EF4 rating. Violent contextual damage was also noted as large hardwood trees near the residences were severely debarked, some were stripped of their branches, cars were thrown into fields and destroyed, and debris was strewn long distances. One person was severely injured in this area; they passed away four weeks later. EF4 damage continued as the tornado crossed MS 826, where a brick house was flattened, and many trees were debarked and left with only stubs of branches remaining. A large metal outbuilding was swept away at high-end EF2 intensity in this area as well. The tornado then weakened slightly, but remained intense, completely destroying a house near Oasis Drive at high-end EF3 intensity. The home was leveled, but it may have been struck by three nearby mobile homes that were thrown and destroyed. The tornado maintained EF3 strength as it entered the southwestern part of Rolling Fork.

Rolling Fork
As the tornado entered Rolling Fork at the southwest side of town, it weakened but remained intense as it produced widespread EF2 to EF3 damage as it moved through residential areas. Many houses sustained major structural damage with roofs completely removed and exterior walls destroyed, and a few were leveled. Manufactured homes were obliterated, debris was scattered throughout the area, and the Sharkey Issaquena Hospital sustained damage to its exterior. A couple was killed near 7th Street by a large semi-truck that was lofted and slammed into their home. Several structures at an agriculture business were also flattened. After briefly weakening to EF2 strength, the tornado rapidly increased to EF4 intensity again near the center of Rolling Fork at MS 14. A large brick duplex was leveled and partially swept from its foundation and two warehouses near the center of town were obliterated. The local library and animal shelter were destroyed, the Rolling Fork Police Department sustained roof loss and some collapse of exterior walls, and the fire station, post office, city hall, Rolling Fork Elementary School, South Delta High School, and a church were significantly damaged. One person died in a mobile home that was destroyed.

Multiple older brick buildings in downtown Rolling Fork also sustained major structural damage. Several other well-built businesses and structures were leveled, with only piles of debris remaining; one of the structures had multiple tractor-trailers thrown into it. One of the town's water towers was toppled when flying debris compromised its base, leaving a crater where it impacted the ground. Water towers are not an official damage indicator on the Enhanced Fujita scale; however, the National Weather Service rated the damage done to the tower EF4 with no estimated wind speed. Mechanical engineer Ethan Moriarty determined—assuming that the tower was made from one single piece of metal that was properly anchored and had not suffered environmental corrosion—that winds of at least 229 mph would be needed to cause the observed damage to the water tower. Another fatality occurred near this area in another mobile home that was destroyed. Some of the most violent damage occurred in the northeastern part of town, where a flower shop housed in a well-built brick building was leveled at high-end EF4 strength, with its concrete foundation slab partially swept clean of debris. The National Weather Service determined that winds up to 195 mph would have been needed to cause the damage done to the flower shop. The survey team also noted that the tornado may have reached EF5 intensity here based on the damage to the shop, but the neighboring building was not destroyed, making the upgrade not possible. Several nearby homes were also obliterated at high-end EF4 strength while large metal-framed buildings, including a Family Dollar store along US 61/MS 14, were flattened as well. Two people were killed at the Family Dollar and a person traveling southbound in a truck on US 61/MS 14 died when the vehicle was thrown off of the highway. Chuck's Dairy Bar had a pickup truck thrown into it and was destroyed, but several people survived at that location by taking shelter in the business's walk-in cooler, the only part of the building left intact after the tornado's passage. Many vehicles were thrown through the air and left badly mangled, numerous large trees in and around Rolling Fork were denuded and debarked, and a few of them were stripped clean of all bark. The large tornado then struck a mobile home park on the eastern edge of town as it exited Rolling Fork, where several manufacturing homes were completely obliterated with debris being strewn long distances. Six people were killed here, representing the majority of the fatalities that occurred in this area.

Ground scouring and extreme forest damage
After exiting Rolling Fork, the tornado remained violent as it moved across several open fields, where severe ground scouring occurred and debris from the town was scattered long distances to the northeast. When it crossed Matthews Boulevard near a catfish farm, several utility poles were snapped off at the base or pulled out of the ground, and some were left covered in up to 1 – of mud. A few of the missing power poles were thrown into nearby catfish ponds, and damage in this area was rated EF2 to EF3. Southeast of Anguilla, the tornado inflicted EF4-strength damage again to hardwood trees, with most mangled or debarked. An outbuilding-type structure was obliterated and swept away with very little debris remaining, and a bus on the property was tossed into trees. Numerous additional wooden power poles were snapped, a semi-trailer was overturned, and a few homes at the edge of the damage path had minor damage. Aerial imagery of this area also revealed ground scouring and cycloidal marks in open fields. The tornado then moved into a densely forested area, causing large amounts of EF2 to EF3 tree damage. It crossed MS 14 east of Anguilla at EF2 strength, destroying a small, older frame home, rolling a mobile home, and snapping many trees and power poles. The tornado then intensified back to low-end EF3 strength, mowing down large swaths of trees as it approached the county line.

Midnight
Maintaining low-end EF3 strength, the tornado then crossed into Humphreys County and continued northeastward, where a home suffered partial destruction of its roof and garage. A truck inside the garage was overturned while another was moved, and a nearby shop building was destroyed, with its metal structural beams bent. Several power poles in the area were snapped and thrown into a nearby field as well. The tornado then briefly strengthened to high-end EF3 strength as it leveled a small brick home along Seven Mile Road, and overturned a nearby grain loader. Another home had most of its roof removed and part of a wall collapsed, with vehicles blown out of its garage. Some metal buildings were damaged or destroyed. Grain bins were heavily damaged in this area as well; debris, including a grain cart, was scattered for hundreds of yards into a field. Passing through the small community of Midnight, the tornado produced EF2 damage: a home and a few barns were destroyed, trees and power poles were snapped, a sign was blown over, and a metal building and a small brick building sustained roof damage. The tornado then moved northeast along MS 149, causing EF2 to EF3 damage as it approached Silver City from the southwest. A mobile home was destroyed after being thrown 75 ft into a nearby field, with only the porch being left behind. A portion of the roof was blown off a school, several homes suffered partial roof loss, and two metal buildings were destroyed, with large support beams bent and debris scattered across fields. Large areas of hardwood trees were snapped and uprooted, and multiple center pivot irrigation systems were flipped in this area as well.

Silver City, weakening, and dissipation
The tornado then weakened some but continued causing significant damage as it moved into Silver City, where multiple apartment buildings on the western side of the town suffered heavy roof damage, including some that had portions of their roofs removed and one that had its walls partially collapsed; one person was killed at this location. Many homes throughout the town had extensive roof damage; some lost their roofs completely, and a few sustained collapse of one or more exterior walls. Four manufactured homes were destroyed in the center of town, a church along US 49W sustained roof damage, a large number of old hardwood trees were snapped or uprooted, and power lines were downed. One person was killed when a mobile home was thrown into their home and a child was killed in a mobile home that was destroyed. Damage in Silver City was rated EF2 in intensity. The tornado then weakened further and moved northeastward into rural forested areas, downing trees and causing roof and window damage to a few homes near and along MS 12 to the east of Belzoni, with damage in this area being rated EF0 to EF1. It then moved into Holmes County, where more trees were snapped and uprooted at EF1 strength as the tornado approached and crossed US 49E north of Tchula. The tornado produced a final small area of significant damage, snapping or uprooting large tree trunks at EF2 intensity in the Morgan Brake National Wildlife Refuge. Beyond this point, the tornado weakened again and produced additional EF0 to EF1 damage as it overturned pivot irrigation systems, damaged trees, and flipped or destroyed grain bins. It dissipated after crossing Randle Road.

In total, the tornado traveled 59.4 mi, killing 17 people and injuring 165 others. The tornado moved with an average forward speed of 50 mph.

Possible EF5 intensity
In March 2024, Logan Poole, a meteorologist and damage surveyor with the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi gave an interview regarding the tornado and why it was rated EF4 rather than EF5. In the interview, Poole stated:

"'So, what gave it the 195 mark? And, the best answer to that is what didn't give it the 200 mark...The Green Apple Florist, essentially a single family home that was modified to built to be a floral shop and it is slabbed to the ground and swept clean. Why not F5? Why not EF5? And two things really stuck out to us from the consensus on why not EF5. One was this building, even though it was extremely, extremely destroyed, I mean on its own, taken out of context, I think most people would agree this would be representative of an EF5 tornado; the damage to that building...If there had even been two of these side-by-side that had suffered the same fate, then maybe we could have had more confidence on that, but we didn't...But it was, to that point that we were very very close and this is probably about as close as you'll get across that threshold, without making it...A question we get a whole lot is like how can you be so sure that it was a five miles per hour from F5, but not quite there? And the answer to that is is is we aren't. What the EF-scale is, is a damage scale...Is it possible that it had winds that were stronger? Certainly.'"

Aftermath
Preliminary information from the National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi indicated that over 78% of the city of Rolling Fork and over 96% of Silver City sustained some level of damage from the tornado, with at least 300 homes sustaining damage in Rolling Fork. Rolling Fork's funeral director and mayor, Eldridge Walker, said on March 27 that search-and-rescue efforts were "pretty close" to finished and authorities believed that everyone had been accounted for. Following major damage to the Sharkey Issaquena Community Hospital and the Delta Health Center, both based in Rolling Fork, the University of Mississippi Medical Center partnered with state agencies to establish a temporary field hospital at the town's National Guard Armory. The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) contracted with the Red Cross to provide survivors with meals and lodging in hotel rooms for up to six months. By April 11, Mayor Walker said that 500 people—approximately a third of the town's population—remained displaced. More than 200 remained displaced in mid-August. To dispose of debris and waste from the tornado's damage, Sharkey County established a burn site on the town's outskirts. On April 10 alone, 260 truckloads of debris made the trip to the burn site. Influencer and YouTuber Ryan Hall, Y'all raised $120,000 through social media to give generators out after the storm.

The Mississippi Insurance Department stated that insured losses from the tornado were near $100 million (2023 USD), with uninsured losses likely even higher.

Political response
Both state and national politicians responded to the devastation in Mississippi. On March 25, Governor of Mississippi Tate Reeves declared a state of emergency in Sharkey, Humphreys, Carroll, and Monroe counties. Governor Reeves's request for a major disaster declaration was granted by President Joe Biden on March 26. President Biden visited Rolling Fork on March 31 and announced that the federal government would fully cover the cost of the cleanup. The Mississippi state legislature also later approved approximately $18.5 million in tornado relief funds.