2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election

The 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held in September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the Prime Minister of Japan and will lead the party in the next general election (if it takes place after the leadership election) and the next House of Councillors election in July 2025.

The leadership election will take place amidst the LDP's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church new religious movement following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, an ongoing slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions, and other issues which has led to incumbent president Fumio Kishida becoming the most unpopular prime minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012.

Background
Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihude Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021.

Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church
Following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased. Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government.

Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi.

Slush fund scandal
In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members.

Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal. Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote.

The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public.

On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later on January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party.

Continued unpopularity and calls for resignation
Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II.

Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition. Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this". Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida.

Prelude
Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8th July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run. On 30 June The Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election. She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July.

On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner. Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day.

Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements".

Prime Minister Kishida began a nationwide tour on 29 June, first visiting Yamanashi Prefecture, which has political ties to his former faction, Kōchikai. Media outlets analyzed the tour as a campaign tour for the presidential election.

On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjirō Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff. While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency.

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July.

Publicly expressed interest

 * Fumio Kishida, incumbent Prime Minister (2021–present), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2012–2017), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present)
 * Toshimitsu Motegi, Minister for Foreign Affairs (2019–2021), Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy (2017–2019), Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2012–2014), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present)
 * Sanae Takaichi, Minister of State for Economic Security (2022–present), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2014–2017; 2019–2020), Member of the House of Representatives (2005–present)
 * Shigeru Ishiba, Minister for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy (2014–2016), Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2008–2009), Minister of Defense (2007–2008), Member of the House of Representatives (1986–present)
 * Seiko Noda, Minister-in-charge of Measures against Declining Birthrate (2021–2022), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2017–2018), Member of the House of Representatives (1993–present)
 * Yōko Kamikawa, Minister for Foreign Affairs (2023–present), Minister of Justice (2014–2015; 2017–2018; 2020–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2000–2009; 2012–present)
 * Taro Kono, Minister for Digital Transformation (2022–present), Minister for Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform (2015–2016; 2020–2021) Minister of Defense (2019–2020), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2017–2019), Chairman of the National Public Safety Commission (2015–2016), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present)
 * Takayuki Kobayashi, Minister of State for Economic Security (2021–2022), Member of the House of Representatives (2012–present)
 * Shinjirō Koizumi, Minister of the Environment (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2009–present), Son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi

Potential candidates
Based on opinion polls


 * Yoshihide Suga, Prime Minister (2020–2021), Chief Cabinet Secretary (2012–2020), Member of the House of Representatives (1996–present), Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2006–2007)
 * Yūko Obuchi, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2014), Member of the House of Representatives (2000–present)
 * Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary (2023–present), Minister for Foreign Affairs (2021–2023), Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2017–2018), Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2012–2014), Member of the House of Representatives (2021–present), Member of the House of Councillors (1995–2021)
 * Kōichi Hagiuda, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2021–2022), Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–2009; 2012–present)
 * Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (2022–2023), Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy (2019–2021), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–present)
 * Katsunobu Katō, Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare (2017–2018; 2019–2020; 2022–2023), Chief Cabinet Secretary (2020–2021), Minister of State for Measures for Declining Birthrate (2015–2017), Member of the House of Representatives (2003–present)