2024 Madeiran regional election

Snap regional elections were held in Madeira on 26 May 2024, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

Before the dissolution of the regional parliament, incumbent president Miguel Albuquerque, since 2015, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the CDS – People's Party, with the parliamentary support of People Animals Nature. The Social Democrats defended their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

The Social Democratic Party (PSD), marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, emerged, once again, as the winner with 36 percent of the votes, albeit losing one seat thus gathering 19 seats, and polling comfortably ahead of the second most voted party, the PS.

The Socialist Party (PS) suffered another big defeat by gathering basically the same number of votes and seats as in September 2023, 21 percent and eleven seats, thus making no gains from the Social Democrats situation. The Together for the People (JPP) can be considered as the big winner of the elections, by gathering 17 percent of the votes, very close with the Socialists, and winning 9 seats, four more than in 2023. The party was also the most voted in their stronghold of Santa Cruz.

CHEGA didn't make significant gains and won 9 percent of the votes and held on to the 4 seats won in September 2023. CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), now running alone after their "feud" with the PSD, achieved 4 percent of the votes and won 2 seats, minus one they had in their 2023 coalition with Social Democrats.

People-Animals-Nature (PAN) and the Liberal Initiative (IL) held on to their sole seats, while the Left Bloc (BE) lost their seat and left the regional assembly, as did the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), which for the third time in 36 years will not have a seat in the Madeira assembly.

The turnout in these elections was the same as in September 2023, with 53.4 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the 53.3 percent eight months before.

Background
In the 2023 regional election, the We Are Madeira coalition (PSD/CDS–PP) was again the most voted coalition, 43 percent, but failed to win an absolute majority. After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP sought the parliamentary support from PAN, which guaranteed an absolute majority in the regional parliament.

2024 corruption investigation
On 24 January 2024, the Judiciary Police and the Public Prosecutor's office conducted a series of searches at the official office of the President of the Region, at Funchal City Hall, at Miguel Albuquerque's private residence and in many private companies, regarding corruption and abuse of power accusations surrounding real estate businesses in the region. The mayor of Funchal, Pedro Calado, and two businessmen were arrested by the police. Miguel Albuquerque was named as formal suspect and is accused of several corruption, abuse of power and influence peddling crimes.

Miguel Albuquerque announced he would not resign as President and would defend himself against the accusations, although suggesting that he would ask his double immunity, granted as a member of the regional government and the Council of State, to be removed, pressing that he is innocent. Parties reacted by demanding Albuquerque's resignation, with People Animals Nature (PAN) threatening to tear apart the agreement between them and the PSD, if Albuquerque didn't resign. The Socialist Party (PS) and Chega announced intentions of submitting motions of no confidence against Albuquerque.

Fall of the government
On 26 January, Miguel Albuquerque announced he would resign as President of the regional government of Madeira. The PSD was expected to select a new leader that would become President of the Regional Government of Madeira. Following Albuquerque's resignation, PAN announced that it would continue to provide parliamentary support to PSD. However, divisions within the PSD meant that a consensus on a succession solution was not reached. The Representative of the Republic in Madeira, Ireneu Barreto, then started to hear parties represented in the regional Parliament. Opposition parties, PS, JPP, CH, PCP, IL and BE defended snap elections, while PSD, CDS–PP and PAN proposed the nomination of a new government.

On 17 February, the Representative of the Republic in Madeira announced that he would keep the government in office, in a caretaker capacity, until the President of Portugal decided whether there would be early elections or a new government under the current parliament. The parliament of Madeira could only be dissolved from 24 March 2024 onwards, six months after the last elections.

On 27 March, the President of Portugal decided to dissolve the regional parliament and call early elections for 26 May.

Socialist Party
On 2 December 2023, a leadership election was held to replace Sérgio Gonçalves as the leader of PS Madeira. Paulo Cafôfo, by then Secretary of State for the Portuguese Communities and former Mayor of Funchal was the only candidate. He was elected with 98.6 percent of the votes. ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * style="background:#f6f;"|
 * align=left | Paulo Cafôfo
 * align=right | 1,450
 * align=right | 98.6
 * colspan=2 align=left | Blank/Invalid ballots
 * align=right | 20
 * align=right | 1.4
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" |  Turnout
 * align=right | 1,470
 * align=right |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: DNotícias
 * }
 * align=right |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: DNotícias
 * }
 * }

Social Democratic Party
On 19 February 2024, Miguel Albuquerque announced that a PSD leadership election will held on 21 March 2024, with himself being an almost certain candidate, which was later confirmed. The party also announced the end of their coalition with CDS–People's Party and will contest future elections alone. Manuel António Correia, former regional secretary of the Environment and Natural Resources from 2000 to 2015, also announced his intentions to run, being supported by former President Alberto João Jardim. On 21 March 2024, Albuquerque was reelected with 54 percent of the votes, against the 45 percent of António Correia. 4,388 party members were able to vote, just over a third of a total universe of more than 12,000 members, and of those able to vote, 94 percent cast a ballot. The results were the following:

! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * bgcolor=orange|
 * align=left | Miguel Albuquerque
 * align=right | 2,243
 * align=right | 54.3
 * bgcolor=orange|
 * align=left | Manuel António Correia
 * align=right | 1,856
 * align=right | 44.9
 * colspan=2 align=left | Blank/Invalid ballots
 * align=right | 33
 * align=right | 0.8
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" |  Turnout
 * align=right | 4,132
 * align=right | 94.17
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: Expresso
 * }
 * align=right | 4,132
 * align=right | 94.17
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: Expresso
 * }
 * }

CDS – People's Party
On 20 February 2024, CDS–PP party leader and Regional Secretary for Economic Affairs, Rui Barreto, announced his resignation from the party leadership, and a leadership ballot was called for April. José Manuel Rodrigues, current President of the Regional Assembly and former leader of CDS–PP Madeira (1997–2018), announced his intention to run for the leadership. On 14 April 2024, José Manuel Rodrigues was easily elected as party leader with 76 percent of the delegates votes:

! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * bgcolor=|
 * align=left | José Manuel Rodrigues
 * align=right | 129
 * align=right | 75.9
 * colspan=2 align=left | Blank/Invalid ballots
 * align=right | 41
 * align=right | 24.1
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" |  Turnout
 * align=right | 170
 * align=right |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: DNotícias
 * }
 * align=right |
 * colspan="4" align=left|Source: DNotícias
 * }
 * }

Electoral system
The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.

Current composition
The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Parties running in the election
14 parties and/or coalitions are on the ballot for the 2024 Madeira regional election. The parties and/or coalitions that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they will appear on the ballot)


 * National Democratic Alternative (ADN), Miguel Pita
 * Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada
 * Socialist Party (PS), Paulo Cafôfo
 * LIVRE (L), Marta Sofia
 * Liberal Initiative (IL), Nuno Morna
 * React, Include, Recycle (RIR), Liana Reis
 * Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
 * Enough (CH), Miguel Castro
 * CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), José Manuel Rodrigues
 * Earth Party (MPT), Valter Rodrigues
 * Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque
 * People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Mónica Freitas
 * Portuguese Labour Party (PTP), Raquel Coelho
 * Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa

Issues
The campaign was dominated by issues like housing, poverty and lack of freedoms in Madeira, with some parties accusing the PSD of coercing public employees. The stability of the next regional government was also a big issue in the campaign, with Miguel Albuquerque being rejected by all parties, due to his ongoing corruption accusations, and with the Socialists hoping to forge a "contraption" with left wing parties, in order to end the Social Democrats 48 years in power.

Opinion polls
Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Voter turnout
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Results
! rowspan="2" colspan=2 style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left|Parties ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Votes ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|% ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±pp swing ! colspan="5" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align="center"|MPs ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:right;" |MPs %/ votes % ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"|2023 ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"| 2024 ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|± ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|% ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±
 * colspan="11"|2024 Madeiran Assembly.svg
 * colspan="11"|2024 Madeiran Assembly.svg
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * 49,104||36.13||||20||19||1||40.43||2.1||1.12
 * 28,981||21.32||0.0||11||11||0||23.40||0.0||1.10
 * 22,959||16.89||5.9||5||9||4||19.15||8.5||0.90
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#202056 align="center" |
 * align=left|CHEGA
 * 12,562||9.24||0.3||4||4||0||8.51||0.0||0.92
 * 5,374||3.95||||3||2||1||4.26||2.1||1.08
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#00ADEF align="center" |
 * align=left|Liberal Initiative
 * 3,481||2.56||0.0||1||1||0||2.13||0.0||0.83
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor=teal align="center" |
 * align=left|People-Animals-Nature
 * 2,531||1.86||0.4||1||1||0||2.13||0.0||1.15
 * 2,217||1.63||1.1||1||0||1||0.00||2.1||0.0
 * 1,912||1.41||0.8||1||0||1||0.00||2.1||0.0
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#CC0033 align="center" |
 * align=left|Labour
 * 1,222||0.90||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * 905||0.67||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor="#274E82" align="center" |
 * align="left" |National Democratic Alternative
 * 772||0.57||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * 577||0.42||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * style="width: 10px" bgcolor=LightSeaGreen align="center" |
 * align=left|React, Include, Recycle
 * 527||0.39||0.1||0||0||0||0.00||0.0||0.0
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total valid
 * width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|133,124
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|97.95
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.7
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|—
 * colspan=2|Blank ballots
 * 612||0.45||0.2||colspan=6 rowspan=4|
 * colspan=2|Invalid ballots
 * 2,181||1.60||0.5
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total
 * width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|135,917
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|
 * colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout
 * 254,522||53.40||0.1
 * colspan=11 align=left | Sources:
 * }
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total valid
 * width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|133,124
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|97.95
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.7
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|—
 * colspan=2|Blank ballots
 * 612||0.45||0.2||colspan=6 rowspan=4|
 * colspan=2|Invalid ballots
 * 2,181||1.60||0.5
 * colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total
 * width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|135,917
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00
 * width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|
 * colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout
 * 254,522||53.40||0.1
 * colspan=11 align=left | Sources:
 * }
 * colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout
 * 254,522||53.40||0.1
 * colspan=11 align=left | Sources:
 * }
 * colspan=11 align=left | Sources:
 * }

Aftermath
On election night, Miguel Albuquerque, PSD leader, said the Social Democrats had a clear victory, that the leftwing had a "copious defeat" and that the party was ready to govern in dialogue with other parties. Socialist Party leader Paulo Cafôfo said that the results showed that an alternative government was possible. Together for the People (JPP), considered the big winners of the election, said that stability scenarios were on the making and asked for the confidence of voters. Other parties, however, didn't seem willing into supporting either Albuquerque or Cafôfo, with Chega suggesting that only the resignation of Albuquerque would allow Chega to support the PSD; CDS–PP not open to coalitions but to dialogue case by case with the PSD, and rejecting any deal with the Socialists, the same position as the Liberal Initiative; PAN said they would be a constructive force in Parliament.

On the day after election day, on 27 May, PS and JPP announced a compromise to propose an alternative government and called on other parties to join them. The Liberal Initiative rejected any possibility of joining the PS and JPP compromise. On the next day, on 28 May, PSD and CDS–PP reached a deal, plus assured the abstention of Chega. After meeting with parties represented in the regional assembly, also during 28 May, the Representative of the Republic, Ireneu Barreto, nominated Miguel Albuquerque as President of the Regional Government. The new government was sworn in on 6 June 2024.

The government programme was given to the Regional Parliament, by Albuquerque, on 14 June and was set to be discussed and voted during three days, between 18 and 20 June 2024. However, despite previous certainties given by Miguel Albuquerque, there were doubts if the programme would pass in the Regional Parliament as Chega announced they would vote against it, alongside the Socialists. JPP, shortly after, also announced its vote against the programme. With an imminent rejection, Albuquerque withdrew, on 19 June, his programme from the assembly and announced negotiations to present a new one, thus cancelling the 20 June vote. After several days of negotiations with Opposition parties, mainly Chega, IL, CDS–PP and PAN, Miguel Albuquerque presented, on 2 July, a second government programme was discussed and voted on 4 July, however with its fate being seen as unclear.

Government approval
On 4 July 2024, the regional assembly approved the PSD minority government with the votes in favour of PSD, CDS–PP and PAN; PS, JPP and one Chega member Magna Costa voting against; and the abstention of IL and the remaining three members from Chega.