2024 Queensland state election

The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.

The Labor government will attempt to win a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal National Party (currently led by David Crisafulli), Queensland Greens, Pauline Hanson's One Nation and other parties, including Legalise Cannabis Queensland, as well as independents. On 10 December 2023, Annastacia Palaszczuk announced her resignation after more than eight years in government, prompting a leadership vote to elect a new leader and subsequently Premier.

The 2024 election is the first election in which both the Premier and Opposition Leader are men since the 2006 election.

Electoral system
Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.

The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.

Key dates
The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October. The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Background
Annastacia Palaszczuk resigned as premier in 2023 and was succeeded by Steven Miles. On 16 March 2024, the first elections during his leadership, two by-elections, were held in Inala and Ipswich West. Despite being held by safe margins of 28.2% and 14.3% respectively, a massive swing against the Labor party was recorded in both seats, resulting in the margin in Inala being cut by more than 20%, and the loss of Ipswich West to the LNP.

Campaign
The LNP is campaigning heavily on four key issues, which it has labelled as crises: crime (particularly youth crime), cost-of-living, housing affordability and health. Crisafulli credited Labor's poor results at the "Super Saturday" elections in the state (where local government elections were held alongside two by-elections in the traditionally Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West, the latter being gained by the LNP) with voters' anger over Labor's handling of those key issues. After what Miles described as a "very bad result" for Labor at the two state by-elections, he accused the LNP of "sensationalising and politicising" crime to win votes.

Opinion polling and betting odds have the LNP as the firm favourites to win the election in a landslide, with Miles himself conceding that it was "very likely" that Labor would lose the election, whilst also criticising Crisafulli's "small target strategy" and claiming he had a lack of plans despite likely becoming the state's next Premier. An opinion poll conducted by YouGov and released on 26 April 2024 saw Labor record a two-party-preferred vote of just 44%, while Miles had a net negative approval rating of –22%, marking the worst opinion poll result for a Queensland Premier in 20 years.

Candidates
Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election, making the LNP the first party to formally endorse candidates for the election. The LNP announced several other candidates afterwards. The second party to formally endorse a candidate was Katter's Australian Party (KAP), announcing their candidate for the Far North Queensland seat of Cook on 6 October 2023.

Preferences
In late 2023, it was reported by the The Courier-Mail that Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli considered a deal to preference the Greens over Labor at the upcoming state election. Crisafulli told the newspaper: “Now, the same doesn't happen on the other side of the draw – the preferences on the right don't flow in the same way that the Greens' preferences flow to Labor,” adding: “So it is a corrupt system... and I have a big concern about the prospect of a Labor–Greens coalition. They will say no deals... but they've said that before and they then broke the promise anyway. So I am deeply concerned by that.” One Nation leader and federal Senator for Queensland, Pauline Hanson, confirmed in February 2024 that One Nation would preference the LNP over Labor in every seat, despite her reported distrust of both major parties.

Labor

 * Stirling Hinchliffe (Sandgate) – announced retirement on 11 October 2023.
 * Barry O'Rourke (Rockhampton) – announced retirement on 13 November 2023, citing health issues.
 * Yvette D'Ath (Redcliffe) – announced retirement on 22 February 2024, citing the need to find more balance in her life.

Liberal National

 * Mark Robinson (Oodgeroo) – announced retirement on 16 June 2023.
 * Michael Hart (Burleigh) – announced retirement on 6 September 2023.
 * Lachlan Millar (Gregory) – announced retirement on 18 October 2023.
 * Darren Zanow (Ipswich West) – announced retirement on 12 July 2024.

Electoral pendulum
This is a pre-election pendulum for the 2024 Queensland state election. Members in italics will not contest the election. By-elections were held in four seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.


 * Notes

Opinion polling
In the lead-up to the state election, a number of polling companies are conducting regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls will collect data on parties' primary vote, and will contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They will also ask questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Voting intention
Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.