2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on July 30, 2024.

Incumbent first-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with roughly 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent in April 2023. However, in March 2024, Sinema announced that she would not run for a second term. U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are running for the Republican nomination.

Background
The race is generally considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings have Gallego as the narrow favorite to win.

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a swing state. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship and the state's other U.S. Senate seat, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6-3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House's delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.

Declined

 * Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)

Democratic primary
Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.

Presumptive nominee

 * Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for AZ's 3rd congressional district (2015–present)

Declined

 * Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband)
 * Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for AZ's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018) (running for re-election)

Polling

 * Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
 * Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton

Declared

 * Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022
 * Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)
 * Elizabeth Jean Reye, neuroscientist

Declined

 * Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for AZ's 6th congressional district (2023–present)
 * Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
 * Abe Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022 (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)
 * Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation, former COO of Thiel Capital, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 (running for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)
 * Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022
 * Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018

Green primary
The Arizona Green Party has endorsed the write-in campaign of Eduardo Quintana and is "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. A press release on the national Green party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.

Declared

 * Eduardo Heredia-Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party
 * Arturo Hernandez
 * Michael Norton, nonprofit executive

Filed paperwork

 * Sarah Williams, business owner (write-in)

Polling

 * Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Eduardo Heredia–Quintana


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema


 * Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema
 * Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema