Andres David Drobny

Andres David Drobny (born November 14, 1954) is an American macroeconomist and foreign exchange specialist. Drobny first gained prominence as a contrarian around the time of the Maastricht Agreement in December 1991, which led to the establishment of the European single currency. Contrary to the prevailing optimism, Drobny predicted instability within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). His warnings were validated when the ERM disintegrated nine months later, causing significant economic and currency turmoil.

Education and career
Drobny earned a BA from Tufts University in 1976, an MSc from The London School of Economics in 1979, and a PhD from King's College, Cambridge in 1986.

Drobny began his career as a professor of Economics and Statistics at Queen Mary College, University of London in 1981. During this period, he published Real Wages & Employment: Keynes, Monetarism and the Labour Market and various academic articles. He later worked as a Research Officer at the National Institute of Social and Economic Research in London.

In 1987, Drobny joined Bankers Trust Company in London as chief economist, becoming Head of Research in 1989. He joined Credit Suisse in 1992 as a currency strategist, trader, and CS Foreign Exchange Executive Committee member.

The Drobny Conference
Drobny founded Drobny Global Advisors in 1999, providing research for hedge funds and institutional investors. The firm evolved to include money management (Drobny Global Asset Management) and conferences (The Drobny Conference). The research involved active dialogue among traders and portfolio managers, leading to prescient predictions like the Icelandic Krona Danger and the Crash of 2008.

Drobny's conferences gained significant attention, functioning as academic seminars where portfolio managers, traders, and analysts presented and defended their favorite trades. Notable attendees included Michael Milken, Ben Bernanke, Niall Ferguson, Peter Thiel, Larry Summers, Nicolas Taleb, and Jeffrey Sachs.

Icelandic Krona Collapse
A 2006 conference in Reykjavik, Iceland, attracted attention due to the participation of Kaupthing Bank's chief economist, Asgeir Jonsson, who later attributed part of Iceland's economic collapse in 2008/9 to the influence of Drobny's conference and research.

Larry Summers and Secular Stagnation
In 2013, a presentation by Larry Summers at the Santa Monica conference introduced the concept of secular stagnation, sparking widespread media coverage and scrutiny as Summers was a leading candidate for Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Publication(s)
Real Wages and Employment: Keynes, Monetarism and the Labour Market (1988, reprinted 1991)