Climate change, food security, and migration

There is a relationship between climate change, food security, and migration. Climate change's effects on the processing, storage, transportation, and consumption of food as well as on agriculture will diminish food security. Climate change threatens food access and utilization separately as well as the stability of each. The intersection of climate change and food insecurity with ongoing trends in migration is expected to exacerbate these issues. Among the many drivers of migration from rural areas to more populated ones is diminishing food security caused by climate change. Conflict resulting from climate change-induced food insecurity can influence migration. Climate change and food insecurity affect different demographics in various ways. The increase in climate-induced migration has led to the consideration of policy changes surrounding migration. Several organizations including The World Bank, The World Food Program, and The World Wildlife Fund are working to address the concerns at the intersection of these three issues.

Climate change, food security, and migration
Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to food security as it challenges the entire food supply chain. These challenges include difficulties in processing, storing, transporting, and consuming food. In addition, climate change makes access to food, in general, challenging. Food security is impacted by several other factors. These include resource-related issues such as land degradation and water security.

Alternatively, high prices contribute to food insecurity by creating a barrier to food access for low-income individuals. Other environmental issues such as overfishing, agricultural disease, and pandemics such as COVID-19 are also contributors to food insecurity. Additionally, our dependence on fossil fuels has been tied to issues with food security.

In roughly three decades, an estimated 143 million people are projected to be forced to migrate due to the effects of climate change. Anyone who has altered their residence to another country, regardless of the reason for doing so, is an international migrant, according to the UN.

A major motivator of migration is difficulty accessing food. Migrants can seek out areas with better availability of food. A sudden influx of migrants, driven by any factor, can contribute to food insecurity in the area where they migrate. The sudden influx creates an unexpected strain on the food supply. An influx of migrants can enhance food security within a region by contributing unique knowledge and ideas to farming and food-supply practices. The employment of workers through the H-2A visa program has been suggested to supplement labor needs and combat food insecurity.

Climate change impacts not directly related to food security can drive migration. The California Wildfires in 2018 have been linked to climate change and resulted in the migration of over 81,000 people. This relocation tends to be temporary, but can also last permanently. One instance of permanent migration due to climate change was the influx of Syrian migrants into Europe in 2015. A climate change-attributed drought in Syria resulted in a conflict that drove 1 million Syrians from their homes into Europe. Climate change was not the only contributor to this migration, as the issue was compounded by unsustainable agricultural and environmental operations.

Alternatively, social and cultural factors can be the cause of migration. This includes changing norms and practices such as the persecution of marginalized groups. New opportunities, the availability of social support networks, family member location, and education can influence migration.

Conflict in connection with climate change, food security, and migration
Diminished food security, due to climate change, is a contributor to conflict that is a potential cause of further migration. Food supply is often threatened by increasingly frequent extreme weather events caused by climate change. Often, this is a driver of displacement. An increasing number of competitors for the already-strained supply of natural resources can be a catalyst for disputes and conflict. Food insecurity does not cause conflict alone, but compounds with other factors such as political and economic strains.

In the study Dangerously Hungry, the World Food Program reviewed a collection of new studies on food security and conflict. Climate change-induced food insecurity is connected to roughly 50% of the studies reviewed in Dangerously Hungry. Included in the review was a Harvard University study that found a 2.3% increase in the probability of Civil War in Africa during periods of low rainfall. An analysis of different consumer price indexes shows a link between heightened conflict in regions that consume a high amount of food and higher food prices.

Food-related conflict is not solely spurred by climate change. It can be catalyzed by economic changes.

A surplus of agricultural products is correlated with increased violence. Characterized as strategic conflict, high rates of output from crops increase the likelihood of violence to access food. Often, this surplus is located in an isolated area of agricultural surplus amidst an area of relatively high food insecurity.

The phases of climate change-induced food insecurity and migration
The World Food Program USA describes a cycle of climate change and food insecurity containing six phases. In phase one, a climate event occurs. These events include droughts and hurricanes. These are caused by climate change and often occur in areas that have limited resources. Phase two refers to the impacts that occur immediately following the climate change-induced event, such as a flood. These impacts are not limited to the loss of crops, homes, and food supply. In phase three, the supply of food decreases rapidly and prices shoot up. As a result, families consume less food, sell all unnecessary goods, and pull their children out of school. During phase four, crisis hits. Food insecurity erupts, forcing the affected area to become reliant on outside assistance. Food insecurity can drive migration from the affected area. At the same time, some people cannot migrate or choose not to. In phase five the lasting impacts become apparent. This is when overall food consumption falls and malnourishment rises for those who have not migrated. The affected area will experience an increase in the rates of stunting and wasting in children. In addition, the variety of diet diminishes. In phase six, the cycle repeats when another climate change-induced event occurs. At the time of this event, the community is often not recovered from the previous event, exacerbating the harm experienced by the new event.

Poverty
Poor communities tend to be the smallest contributors to climate change while simultaneously being affected more than other economic demographics. While making up roughly 16% of the world's population, the wealthiest nations are responsible for roughly 40% of CO2 emissions.

Individuals who are below the poverty threshold are more likely to be food insecure than individuals who are not. Living below the poverty threshold provides a challenge for people to afford food. Food insecurity still affects those above the poverty line.

Gender
Globally, other recipients of the most severe impacts of climate change are women and girls. Women are worse equipped to deal with climate change than men. Increased temperatures due to climate change can lead to reproductive complications. Additionally, women are more likely to experience barriers to clean water access than males.

Women are more likely to live in poverty than males. They represent a large portion of communities highly reliant on natural resources and their roles require them to perform difficult, time-consuming tasks.

Disability
Those with disabilities are also more likely to bear the burden of the impacts of climate change. Globally, food insecurity increases the ill effects on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The decrease in DALYs is caused by insufficient micronutrients and protein. This impact is worsened by climate change. Policymakers can use these statistics to determine how they approach efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change and food insecurity.

There is a correlation between food insecurity and disability. Areas of high food insecurity tend to be low-income and have a high concentration of people with disabilities.

Migrants
Migrants are disproportionately impacted by climate change. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the 22 countries that are projected to face the harshest impacts of climate change are currently home to 52% of internationally displaced people.

Migration policy changes
Climate migrants, many of whom are motivated by food insecurity, are changing the way that governments approach migration policy. The discourse surrounding migration policy has historically been rooted in the importance of strict laws and control to deter migration. As climate migration becomes more prevalent, the discourse is shifting from stopping migration and becoming increasingly focused on effectively managing migration. In 2022, Argentina designed a visa aimed at providing refuge to those from a specific list of countries that had been impacted by natural disasters. The United States created a task force to aid in resettling those who have fled their homes due to the effects of climate change.

Awareness of food insecurity as a threat to national security is increasing. Those experiencing food insecurity may act out of desperation in a way that threatens national, regional, and global security. These actions include both individual and group acts of violence. The UN states that some individuals experiencing hunger join militant groups out of desperation to gain access to food.

Potential solutions
Efforts to mitigate the ill effects at the intersection between climate change, food insecurity, and migration include moving towards climate-smart farming practices and stormproof ponds. In addition, enabling vulnerable populations to lead sustainable lives where they are will lessen the pressure on the environment and our food system.

The World Bank
The World Bank looks to address the harms at the intersection of climate change, food insecurity, and migration through community-based efforts. Its three areas of focus are empowering communities to take action against climate change, keeping tabs on the social impacts of policies aimed at addressing climate change, and coordinating efforts to understand and mitigate the social impacts of climate change.

The World Bank emphasizes including the communities most affected by climate change and food insecurity in finding a solution. This includes educating community members and giving them the power to make decisions within their communities. According to The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, unique input from different groups of people with different perspectives is an integral part of tackling climate change.

The World Food Program
The World Food Program has implemented programs such as Purchase for Progress to address the intersection of food insecurity and climate change. The goal of the programs is to encourage the consumption of locally produced food, which reduces transportation needs. When transportation distances of food are reduced, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced.

Education efforts
The World Food Program is working to educate communities about agricultural practices that will mitigate the effects of and diminish further contributions to climate change. These strategies include water storage, crop rotation, implementing the growth of crops less susceptible to drought, and decreasing the use of chemicals. Commonly, sustenance farmers previously lacked knowledge about these techniques that would be beneficial to them and the environment.

The "Next California" project
The World Wildlife Fund is looking to solve the supply challenges posed by climate change by expanding the source of America's food supply to the Mid-Mississippi Delta Region. The fund is calling this solution the “Next California” Project.

Potential challenges that could arise are due to the differing climates of the two regions. The humidity of the Mississippi Delta brings the challenge of certain pests, necessitating the use of pesticides which makes the process of growing certified organic produce harder. Colder winter temperatures in the Mississippi Delta region eliminate the possibility of growing certain crops.

Additionally, the labor force in the Mississippi Delta is set up in favor of row crops. These crops are harvested via machine, while many crops currently grown in California require people to harvest them. This means the Mississippi Delta is not ready to provide the necessary labor to supply these crops on a large scale.

Further, the infrastructure of the Mississippi Delta is not yet ready to support the storage and preservation required for the national distribution of the food it would supply.

The World Wildlife Fund has suggested the use of workers with H-2A visas to help with the increased need for labor.