Cyclones Judy and Kevin

Severe Tropical Cyclones Judy and Kevin were a pair of intense tropical cyclones that made landfall on the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu within 48 hours of each other in March 2023. They were the fourth and fifth named storms of the 2022–23 South Pacific cyclone season respectively, as well as the second and third severe tropical cyclones of the season. By the end of February, Judy had affected the Solomon Islands, and shortly after, Kevin began to affect the country.

The origins of the tropical cyclones started with Judy forming as a tropical disturbance in the South Pacific basin southeast of Wallis and Futuna on 23 February. After continuous development from very warm sea surface temperatures, the system was classified as a tropical depression on the 26th by the Fiji Meteorological Service, shortly before the agency further upgraded its status to Category 1 the next day and assigned the name Judy to the storm. That same day, a tropical low in the Australian region formed northeast of Cooktown, Queensland. On 28 February, Judy made landfall in Efate in Vanuatu before rapidly intensifying to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone on 1 March. The tropical low exited the region the same day, and entered the same basin as Judy, becoming marked as a tropical depression. The tropical depression strengthened and attained Category 1 strength and receive the name Kevin. Judy began to weaken from wind shear before transitioning to a subtropical cyclone, as Kevin began to also rapidly intensify from the warm waters and outflow. Kevin moved over Erromango and Tanna Island of Vanuatu on 3 March. Kevin became a Category 5 in both the FMS scale and the Saffir–Simpson scale on 4 March, before Kevin's structure began to rapidly degrade. Kevin underwent the same fate as Judy as it dissipated on 6 March. Kevin continued to degenerate, before its remnants were last marked on 12 March.

The nations were pounded by powerful winds and destructive seas. Vanuatu was heavily affected, being struck by both cyclones two days apart. The government asked Australia and New Zealand for aid shortly after Judy's passage. During 3 March, as Kevin was impacting the islands, a magnitude 6.5 earthquake hit just west of Espiritu Santo, and then a magnitude 5.5 earthquake aftershock hit the island shortly after. Nonetheless, no deaths or significant injuries have been reported in connection with either cyclone. Total damages from the two cyclones is estimated to reach $433 million USD.

Cyclone Judy
On 23 February, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) reported that Tropical Disturbance 08F had developed about 130 km to the southeast of Halalo in Wallis and Futuna. At this stage, the disturbance was poorly organised as the systems low-level circulation was fully exposed, while atmospheric convection was building over the circulation's northern and eastern quadrants. Over the next couple of days, the system slowly moved westwards and gradually consolidated within a marginal environment for tropical cyclogenesis, with very warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30 C being offset by moderate to high levels of vertical wind shear.

During 26 February, as the disturbance continued to develop, the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a tropical cyclone formation alert (TCFA) on the system, while the FMS reported that 08F had developed into a tropical depression. At around 1100 VUT (00:00 UTC) on 27 February, the JTWC classified the depression as Tropical Cyclone 15P and initiated advisories on it, after they had received a bullseye ASCAT-B image which showed that winds of up to 35 kn were occurring in the systems eastern quadrant. At around the same time, the FMS reported that the system had developed into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale and named it Judy, while it was located about 35 km to the southeast of Fatutaka in the Solomon Islands. The cyclone then began to consolidate, with deepening central convection as it moved southwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. By 09:00 UTC on 28 February, Judy had strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS). Judy further developed due to high sea surface temperatures of 30 C, leading to the FMS to upgrade its status to Category 2 tropical cyclone the same day, before upgrading further to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone on 28 February. Continuing to rapidly intensify, Judy then strengthened into a Category 2-equivalent cyclone. At around 22:00 UTC that same day, Judy made landfall on the island of Efate in Vanuatu, with 1-minute sustained winds of 90 - 95 kn. On 1 March, the FMS reported that Judy had become a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone. The JTWC followed suit, upgrading the system to a Category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone. Judy then reached its peak intensity at 12:00 UTC that same day, with 10-minute sustained winds of 95 kn, and 1-minute sustained winds of 105 kn. However, increasing wind shear soon took a toll on the system, and by 2 March, the FMS reported that Judy's winds had bottomed to 80 kn, becoming a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. At the same time, the JTWC downgraded the system to a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone.

Turning southeastward, Judy further weakened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone, as unfavorable environment that consisted of cooling sea surface temperatures and high wind shear unraveled the storm's central convection. At the same time, the FMS passed the responsibility of warning the system to the New Zealand MetService, as it left their area of responsibility. At 06:00 UTC the next day, the MetService downgraded Judy to a Category 2 tropical cyclone. Three hours later, the JTWC reclassified Judy as a subtropical system, noting its central convection had been severely sheared to the southeast, partially exposing its low-level circulation center, along with significant erosion of its western peripheries due to an intrusion of a mid-level trough to its southwest. By 4 March, Judy had transitioned to a storm-force extratropical cyclone, with its winds weakening to gale-force 12 hours later. It was last noted as a gale-force low two days later on 6 March, about 955 km to the south of Tubuai, French Polynesia, then it dissipated the same time it was last noted as a gale-force low.

Cyclone Kevin
On 27 February, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that Tropical Low 18U had developed within a monsoonal trough of low pressure about 180 km to the northeast of Cooktown in Queensland. At that time, the low had a poorly organised low-level circulation center, however was improving as the environment for tropical cyclogenesis became more favorable, with 29-30 C sea surface temperatures, moderate wind shear, and weak equatorial outflow aloft. Over the next day, the system progressed eastwards while gradually organizing, with its low-level circulation center being displaced to the east of deep convection. During 1 March, the JTWC issued a TCFA on the system, while the BoM passed the responsibility of warning the system to the FMS as it entered the South Pacific basin, designating the system as Tropical Depression 09F. At 21:00 UTC that same day, 09F strengthened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone in the Australian scale, with the FMS naming it as Kevin. The JTWC subsequently followed suit and initiated advisories on the system. Moving east-southeast under the influence of a subtropical ridge in the same direction, Kevin intensified into a Category 2 tropical cyclone three hours later, as deep convection tightly wrapped its partially exposed low-level circulation center. At 18:00 UTC on 2 March, Kevin intensified into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. The JTWC subsequently upgraded the system into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone in the Saffir-Simpson scale three hours later, as a large central dense overcast (CDO) developed over its low-level circulation center.

Owing to a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and moderate radial outflow, Kevin intensified to a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone by the next day, before undergoing a phase of rapid intensification. At 18:00 UTC that same day, the FMS reported that Kevin further intensified to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone. The JTWC subsequently upgraded the system to a Category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone three hours later, as it moved over Erromango and Tanna Island in Vanuatu, before it cleared up a 21 nmi eye, which made Kevin reach its peak intensity as a Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclone in the Saffir-Simpson scale by 4 March, with winds of 140 kn according to the JTWC. At the same time, the FMS followed suit and upgraded the system to a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone. Kevin then reached its peak intensity at 06:00 UTC that same day according to the FMS, with 10-minute sustained winds of 115 kn. However, cooling sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear made the system weaken to a Category 4-equivalent tropical cyclone nine hours later, as the storm's structure began to unravel on satellite imagery. By 18:00 UTC that same day, the FMS downgraded Kevin to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone, with the JTWC subsequently downgrading the system to a Category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone, noting the significant deterioration of its convective structure. The FMS passed the responsibility of warning the system to the MetService on 5 March, as it left its area of responsibility while continuing east-southeast.

At the same time, the JTWC further downgraded Kevin to a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone, as it continued to rapidly weaken. By 06:00 UTC that same day, the MetService reported that Kevin further weakened to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. The JTWC subsequently downgraded the system to a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone, before reclassifying Kevin as a subtropical cyclone and issuing their final advisory nine hours later, as the low-level circulation center became partially exposed due to convection becoming decoupled southeastwards. The MetService further downgraded Kevin to a Category 2 tropical cyclone at 18:00 UTC that same day, before it transitioned into a gale-force extratropical cyclone by 6 March. The remnants of the system continued southeastwards, before weakening below gale-force late on 8 March. Kevin's remnants were last noted in the MetService's bulletins on 11 March, before fully dissipating by the next day as it was absorbed by a warm front.

Solomon Islands
On 26 February, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service (SIMS) started to issue special weather bulletins, which warned that Judy was expected to cause gale-force winds, rough seas, moderate to heavy swells and costal flooding over southern parts of Temotu Province within 12 - 24 hours. They also noted that strong winds of 20 - 30 kn, moderate to rough seas, heavy rain and thunderstorms were expected to develop over most provinces, as Kevin's precursor tropical low moved towards the islands of Rennell and Bellona Province. After Judy had been named, the SIMS issued a tropical cyclone warning for Temotu Province and a tropical disturbance warning for the rest of the Solomon Islands.

Cyclone Judy impacted the Solomon Islands at the end of February while the system that became Kevin started affecting the nation soon after. Strong winds and damaging waves battered the many islands of the nation for days. Schools and businesses were shuttered across Honiara due to the winds. The vessel M/V Vatud Star ran aground due to a rogue wave. A small boat carrying passengers en route from Honiara to Central Province sank due to rough waves, but all of them managed to swim to safety. Tidal waves produced by the storms destroyed 12 homes in West Honiara. Communications with Lata were interrupted.

Preparations
On 27 February, the Government of Vanuatu issued yellow alerts for Torba, Sanma, Penama, and Malampa Provinces and blue alerts for Shefa and Tafea Provinces ahead of Cyclone Judy's arrival. The four provinces under yellow were soon placed under red alerts as the cyclone progressed along a north to south path through the country. The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) opened public shelters in Port Vila. The NDMO worked with the Vanuatu Christian Council of Churches to establish shelters at churches in the remainder of Efate and neighboring smaller islands. Local volunteers coordinated with international agencies to warn residents of the storm and provide safety information. Schools and businesses were closed nationwide and Air Vanuatu cancelled all flights. UNICEF reported it had response personnel pre-deployed in Vanuatu. The agency had emergency stockpiles in place across the country, including hygiene kits, health kits, tents, and tarpaulins to support more than 20,000 people. Care International pre-positioned household supplies and building materials in Port Vila and Tanna.

Ahead of Cyclone Kevin's arrival on 3 March, hundreds of residents fled to public shelters.

Impact
The entirety of Vanuatu was impacted one or both of the cyclones in a four-day period. According to DG ECHO, the entire population experienced winds of at least 60 km/h; approximately 251,000 people or about 80 percent of the population were affected by Category 2–3 winds, of whom 150,000 were affected by Category 3–4 winds. Early assessments indicated the worst damage to be in Malapa, Penama, and Shefa Provinces. The storms severed access to running water in these areas and runoff contamination rendered river waters unsafe for consumption. Extensive power outages occurred, with Port Vila remaining offline through 4 March. Bauerfield International Airport sustained damage. Satellite analyses of imagery from the Sentinel-2 by UNOSAT on 4 March revealed extensive damage in Shefa Province with potential storm surge damage along the west coast of Efate Island. Damaged structures were found on Aniwa Island and Erromango in Tafea Province.

Cyclone Judy brought hurricane-force winds to Efate on 28 February, and its eye passed directly over the capital city of Port Vila. Erromango and Tanna lost all communications on 1 March, with the latter remaining isolated nearly a week later. Tropical Cyclone Judy has been bringing heavy rain and strong winds, and requiring the evacuation of residents from the capital, Port Vila. Strong winds from Judy tore the roof off the infant ward at the Vanuatu Central Hospital. However, there are no reports of deaths or serious injuries in Port Vila from Cyclone Judy.

As Cyclone Kevin was impacting the nation on 3 March, a 6.5 earthquake struck just west of Espiritu Santo at a depth of 10 km. The earthquake had a maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of VI, indicating strong shaking conditions. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center indicated no risk of a tsunami. A magnitude 5.5 earthquake aftershock struck the island shortly after.

Elsewhere
On 28 February, New Zealand's MetService noted a risk of strong winds and large waves for New Caledonia as Cyclone Judy passed to the northeast. A pre-cyclone alert was raised for the Loyalty Islands Province on 2 March as Kevin passed to the northeast.

The Tonga Meteorological Service stated that the cyclones would likely remain far enough away to not have much impact; however, a small chance existed for Kevin to affect the kingdom. During the overnight of 4–5 March, Kevin entered Tonga's territorial waters in the ʻOtu Muʻomuʻa group of islands near Tele-ki-Tokelau and Tele-ki Tonga. As of 6 March no damage was reported.

Although Kevin remained far to the south and west of Fiji on 3–4 March, associated inclement weather stemming from a trough prompted the issuance of heavy rain warnings for Ba, Kadavu, Lau, Lomaiviti, Nadroga-Navosa, and Ra provinces. The Fiji Meteorological Service warned that the southernmost islands could see winds of 45 to 85 km/h along with damaging ocean swells. Strong winds felled a royal poinciana tree in Naikabula, Ba Province, destroying a home in the process.

Solomon Islands
A damage assessment was initiated on 9 March in response to the tropical cyclones by the National Disaster Council and the National Disaster Operations Committee in the Solomon Islands. A patrol boat was sent to transport emergency relief supplies for Anuta and Tikopia. The National Emergency Operation Center sent their gratitude towards the New Zealand Government for their financial support for the deployment. After completion, it was noted that water sources had high turbidity and reservoirs in Tikopia were damaged by landslides caused by the tropical cyclones. People relied on coconut water and water tanks provided by the government. In Anuta, cassava and taro crops were also damaged by landslides. The New Zealand Government, Australian Government, Royal Solomon Islands Police Force, Solomon Islands Red Cross Society, and World Vision Solomon Islands, all provided food and non-food sources to both islands.

Vanuatu
The Government of Vanuatu declared a state of emergency on 2 March. Shortly after Judy's passage, the Government requested international assistance from Australia and New Zealand. The former pledged to provide water, medical supplies, and damage assessment teams by 6 March. In accordance with the FRANZ agreement the New Zealand High Commission headed coordination with Australia, France, and New Zealand for relief efforts. Within two days, two C-17 Globemaster aircraft reached Port Vila carrying the initial supplies and a 12-person rapid response team. On 5 March, the Royal Australian Navy's HMAS Canberra set sail from Sydney, Australia, toward Vanuatu. The ship carried 600 Australian Defence Force personnel, three CH-47 Chinook helicopters, and landing craft for deployment. The ship could also serve as a mobile hospital. World Vision Australia set up a disaster center to distribute supplies in Port Vila. New Zealand, still reeling from the impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle, deployed a C-130 Hercules aircraft carrying water, temporary shelter kits, and hygiene kits on 4 March. A seven-member team was also sent to assist in response coordination. Furthermore, the Government made a NZ$150,000 cash donation to Vanuatu. Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape offered assistance to Vanuatu on 6 March.

UNICEF sent a 16-member team to Vanuatu to conduct needs assessments and assist in supply distribution by 4 March. They partnered with the Vanuatu Red Cross Society by 4 March to distribute emergency supplies to affected residents. The agency also pledged additional supplies from stockpiles in Fiji. DG ECHO sent their Rapid Response Coordinator to conduct a needs assessment on 6 March.

Digicel suspended call fees to Vanuatu from Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, and Nauru from 6 to 19 March.

Retirement
As a result of the impacts in Vanuatu, the names Judy and Kevin were retired after the season, and they will never be used again for tropical cyclones in this basin. They were replaced by Josese and Kirio for future seasons.