Draft:2028 United States presidential election

The 2028 United States presidential election will be the 61st quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

The winner of this election will be inaugurated on January 20, 2029.

Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. If former president Donald Trump is reelected after the 2024 presidential election, he will not be eligible to run for a third term due to term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment; In accordance with Section1 of the Twentieth Amendment, his term would end at noon on January 20, 2029, potentially making this the first open Presidential election since the 2016 election. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. The national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president. Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.

Electoral partisanship
Approximate partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored grey. In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive, since their demographics keep them solidly behind one party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that swing states—states that are typically very competitive and "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties—are vital to winning the presidency. These include states in the Midwestern United States, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Due to gradual demographic shifts, some swing states such as Iowa, Ohio, and Florida have shifted significantly towards Republicans, favoring them in statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia have moved noticeably towards Democrats, and they have become the dominant political force there.

The traditional Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, is mainly composed of minority groups (especially African-Americans and Latinos), women, educated professionals, and urban voters. Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more educated, diverse, and culturally liberal. Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters. Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement, a brand of right-wing populism cultivated by former President Donald Trump. The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, since the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.

Publicly expressed interest

 * Jared Polis, 43rd Governor of Colorado (2019–present), U.S. Representative from Colorado's 2nd congressional district (2009–2019), member of the Colorado State Board of Education from the at-large district
 * Gretchen Whitmer, 49th Governor of Michigan (2019–present), Ingham County Prosecuting Attorney (2016), Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate (2011–2015) from the 23rd district (2006–2015), member of the Michigan House of Representatives from the 69th district (2001–2006)

Potential candidates

 * Andy Beshear, 63rd Governor of Kentucky (2019–present), 50th Attorney General of Kentucky (2016–2019)
 * Cory Booker, United States Senator from New Jersey (2013-present), Mayor of Newark, New Jersey (2006-2013), candidate for President in 2020
 * Jamaal Bowman, United States Representative from New York's 16th congressional district
 * Pete Buttigieg, 19th United States Secretary of Transportation (2021–present), 32nd Mayor of South Bend (2012-2020), candidate for president in 2020
 * Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina (2017-present), Attorney General of North Carolina (2001-2017), North Carolina State Senator (1991-2001), North Carolina State Representative (1987-1991)
 * John Fetterman, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (2023-present), Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2019-2023), Mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania (2006-2019)
 * Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative from Arizona (2015–present)
 * Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present), U.S. Senator from California (2017-2021), 32nd Attorney General of California, (2011-2017), 27th District Attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011), candidate for president in 2020
 * Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York (2021-present), Lieutenant Governor of New York (2015-2021), United States Representative from New York's 26th congressional district (2011-2013), Clerk of Erie County, New York (2007-2011), Member of the Hamburg, New York Town Board (1994-2007)
 * Mark Kelly, United States Senator from Arizona (2020-present)
 * Ro Khanna, United States Representative from CA-17 (2017–present)
 * Amy Klobuchar, United States Senator from Minnesota (2007-present), County Attorney of Hennepin County, Minnesota (199-2007)
 * Mitch Landrieu, Senior Advisor to the President (2021-present), Mayor of New Orleans, Louisiana (2010-2018), Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana (2004-2010), Louisiana State Representative (1988-2004)
 * Wes Moore, 63rd Governor of Maryland (2023–present)
 * Chris Murphy, United States Senator from Connecticut (2013-present), United States Representative from Connecticut's 5th congressional district (2007-2013), Member of the Connecticut State Senate (2003-2007), Member of the Connecticut House of Representatives (1999-2003)
 * Phil Murphy, Governor of New Jersey (2018-present), United States Ambassador to Germany (2009-2013)
 * Gavin Newsom, 40th Governor of California (2019–present), 49th Lieutenant Governor of California (2011–2019), 41st Mayor of San Francisco (2004–2011)
 * Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative from New York's 14th congressional district (2019–present)
 * Dean Phillips, United States Representative from Minnesota's 3rd congressional district (2019-present), candidate for President in 2024
 * J. B. Pritzker, 43rd Governor of Illinois (2019–present)
 * Josh Shapiro, 48th Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present), 50th Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023), Member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2012–2017), Member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the 153rd district (2005–2012)
 * Raphael Warnock, U.S. Senator from Georgia (2021–present)
 * Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present), candidate for president in 2020

Publicly expressed interest

 * Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present), 3rd Texas Solicitor General (2003–2008), candidate for president in 2016
 * Tim Scott, United States Senator from South Carolina (2013–present), U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 1st congressional district (2011-2013), South Carolina State Representative (2009-2011), candidate in 2024

Potential candidates

 * Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas (2015-present), Attorney General of Texas (2002-2015), Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of Texas (1996-2001)
 * Katie Britt, United States Senator from Alabama (2023-present)
 * Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–present), candidate in 2024
 * Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–2023)
 * Liz Cheney, United States Representative from Wyoming's at-large congressional district (2017-2023)
 * Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010-2018), Chair of the Opioid and Drug Abuse Commission (2017), Chair of the Republican Governors Association (2013-2014), United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey (2002-2008), candidate for President in 2016 and 2024
 * Tom Cotton, United States Senator from Arkansas (2015-present), United States Representative from Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013-2015)
 * Ron DeSantis, 46th Governor of Florida (2019–present), U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th congressional district (2013-2018), candidate for president in 2024
 * Byron Donalds, U.S. Representative from Florida's 19th congressional district (2021-present), Member of the Florida House of Representatives (2016-2020)
 * Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 1st congressional district (2017-present), Member of the Florida House of Representatives (2010-2016)
 * Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)
 * Nikki Haley, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (2017-2018), Governor of South Carolina (2011-2017), South Carolina State Representative (2005-2011), candidate in 2024
 * Josh Hawley, United States Senator from Missouri (2019-present), Attorney General of Missouri (2017-2010)
 * Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas (2023-present), White House Press Secretary (2017-2019), White House Deputy Press Secretary (2017-2017)
 * Will Hurd, United States Representative from Texas's 23rd congressional district (2015-2021), candidate for President in 2024
 * Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (2019-present), Secretary of State of Georgia (2010-2018), Member of the Georgia State Senate (2003-2007)
 * Mike Lee, United States Senator from Utah (2011-present)
 * Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019-present), United States Representative from South Dakota's at-large congressional district (2011-2019), Member of the South Dakota House of Representatives (2007-2011)
 * Mike Pence, Vice President of the United States (2017-2021), Governor of Indiana (2013-2017), United States Representative from Indiana's 6th congressional district (2003-2013), United States Representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (2001-2003), candidate for President in 2024
 * Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State (2018-2021), Director of the C.I.A. (2017-2018), U.S. Representative from Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011-2017)
 * Vivek Ramaswamy, businessman, candidate in 2024
 * Kim Reynolds, Governor of Iowa (2017-present), Lieutenant Governor of Iowa (2011-2017), Member of the Iowa Senate (2009-2011)
 * Marco Rubio, United States Senator from Florida (2011-present), Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2006-2008), Member of the Florida House of Representatives (2000-2008), Member of the West Miami City Commission (1998-2000), candidate for President in 2016
 * Elise Stefanik, United States Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015-present), Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021-present)
 * Francis X. Suarez, Mayor of Miami, Florida (2017-present), candidate for President in 2024
 * Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021), chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–2017), candidate for president in 2000, 2016, 2020, and 2024
 * Donald Trump Jr., businessman, son of President Donald J. Trump
 * J. D. Vance, United States Senator from Ohio (2023-present), and 2024 Republican Party Vice Presidential nominee.
 * Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)

Declined to be candidates

 * Kevin McCarthy, former U.S. representative for California's 20th congressional district (2007-2023) and former Speaker of the House (2023)

Potential candidates

 * Mark Cuban, businessman, investor, and television personality
 * Stephen Curry, professional basketball player for the Golden State Warriors (2009–present)
 * Dwayne Johnson, actor and professional wrestler