Draft:Conflict in Myanmar

Conflict in Myanmar
Operation 1027, also known as 1027 Offensive in English or ၁၀၂၇ စစ်ဆင်ရေး in Burmese, refers to the sustained military offensive conducted by the Three Brothers Alliance on October 27, 2023. The alliance comprises three ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar: the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). These groups, allied with other insurgent factions within the country, engaged in combat against the Myanmar government's military forces and administration. This operation specifically targeted the State Administration Council and militia organizations, carried out by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army.

The Three Brothers Alliance simultaneously launched attacks on multiple targets in the northern part of Shan State, including Myanmar military, police forces, and other military facilities along the Sino-Burmese border. Following a decisive victory in the Battle of Lae, the Alliance successfully gained control of the strategically important Special Administrative Zone (SAZ) of Kengtung. The offensive has expanded from Shan State to encompass the entire country, reaching regions such as Sagaing, Chin State, and Rakhine State. Additionally, actions designated as 1107 and 1111 took place in the southern region of Kayin State. Resistance forces across the nation occupied dozens of towns, and as of November 28, 2023, the Three Brothers Alliance claimed control over more than 220 military government strongholds. The People's Defense Force (PDF) of the Myanmar shadow government expressed its support for the military offensive and actively participated in military operations against the regime's forces.

Background:
Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, Myanmar has plunged into a rapidly escalating civil war. The democratic movement, in conjunction with several long-standing ethnic armed groups, took up arms to challenge the military government's control over the country. Over the course of more than a year, the conflict has spread to six different theaters of war, undermining military rule in many areas and leading to widespread violence and destruction in Myanmar. The military government has indiscriminately used violence against its opponents, further intensifying the turmoil.

However, the resolute resistance against the military government has gained significant momentum, with a remarkable number of enthusiastic volunteers now prepared to continue the fight indefinitely. Challenges persist, notably the lack of centralized command and proper equipment within the democratic forces. Despite the obstacles, the determination of the anti-military government resistance remains strong.

On February 1, 2021, nearly three years after the military coup, the "Operation 1027" marks a decisive moment in the Myanmar revolution. This operation is not just a military offensive; it symbolizes the enduring spirit and resourcefulness of the people of Myanmar and their People's Defense Force (PDF). It represents the alliance between the people and the historically rooted ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in the country, as well as the unwavering public support for the ongoing struggle. "Operation 1027" stands as a powerful symbol of the collective determination and resilience of the Myanmar people in their quest for freedom and democracy.

Objectives:
The Three Brothers Alliance issued a joint statement, announcing the commencement of Operation 1027 on October 27, 2023. The alliance has a total mobilization capacity of 15,000 soldiers. The statement outlines the primary objectives of the operation, which include

Safeguarding the lives of civilians.

Upholding their right to self-defense.

Maintaining control over their territory.

Resolutely responding to continuous shelling and airstrikes by the State Administration Council.

Eradicating oppressive military rule.

Motivation:
Analysts emphasize that the cooperation between the People's Defense Force (PDF) and the Emergency Assistance Organization during Operation 1027 is a continuation of the Myanmar Spring Revolution. This viewpoint is supported by the ongoing public backing for the armed resistance movement, the involvement of frontline medical professionals in the civil disobedience movement, and support for the use of drone warfare strategies, notably adopted by the PDF.

Furthermore, experts highlight the autonomy and strategic motivations of the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), advocating for the interpretation of this operation as a part of a larger nationwide movement. In this context, Operation 1027 is seen as a logical extension of the ongoing struggle within Myanmar, reflecting the resilience and determination of various groups in their quest for change.

According to the alliance's announcement, they bear the coordinating responsibility, and the reason for launching the attack is attributed to the authoritarian rule of the military government in Myanmar, their atrocities against the people, and their insufficient efforts to combat telecommunications fraud. The majority of the northern Shan State's Special Administrative Zone (SAZ), nominally under the jurisdiction of the Myanmar government, is, in reality, controlled by influential families. The rampant telecom fraud in the region is closely linked to the influence of these families, as their dominance provides an environment and breeding ground for such criminal activities. Striking against this power structure is considered a significant move in addressing the issue.

Peng Dejun, motivated by settling personal grievances, declared war against several prominent families including the Bai and Ming families. He vocally opposed telecommunications fraud and issued a surrender letter, inviting armed individuals in the Kengtung region to surrender, with the exception of the Bai family, whose surrender he refused to accept.

October 2023
On the early morning of October 27th at 4:00 AM, the National Democratic Alliance Army attacked a military camp of the Myanmar military government in Kunming, killing soldiers and confiscating weapons and ammunition. In response, the government launched air strikes and intense shelling.

On October 29th, the Administrative Management Committee of the Shan State Special Region in Kunming, Myanmar, declared a curfew throughout the region, from 10:00 PM to 4:30 AM Myanmar time.

On October 30th, the Kunming Alliance Army announced its surrender policy towards the Myanmar military and police. They stated that those who surrender voluntarily would be treated as prisoners of war under the Geneva Conventions. Those who surrender with weapons would retain their original ranks, and those who defect to the Alliance Army would be rewarded with a one-rank promotion. In the early morning of the same day, the Kunming government forces bombed the Alliance Army positions in the Mubang region, and the Mubang Bridge was destroyed.

On October 31st, the Supreme Commander of the Alliance Army, Peng Dejun, issued an open letter in his personal capacity addressed to officials of the pseudo regime, border camps, police camps, and militia units. He emphasized the policy of "no questions asked, commendation for merit." On the same day, the Alliance Army conquered four strongholds, including the Monkey Cave in Kunming, in the ongoing battles.

November 2023
As of November 2nd, the Alliance Army and its allies had occupied 92 Myanmar military government outposts and 4 cities.

By November 4th, the Alliance Army had seized control of 106 military government outposts and 4 towns.

On November 6th, after a three-day assault on Kunming, the Kachin Independence Army (AA) and the People's Defense Forces (PDF) successfully took over the city.

On November 7th, the Karen National Defense Army, Karen Army, and Karen National Liberation Front launched a joint military operation known as "Operation 1107" against the Kye Bang government forces to support the Northern 1027 Operation.

On November 8th, on the 12th day of Operation 1027, after capturing several cities and hundreds of military bases, the Myanmar military government convened a defense and security meeting.

On the afternoon of November 9th, the People's Defense Forces (PDF) of the armed forces controlled by the Myanmar National Unity Government issued a press release stating that the Defense Forces confirmed the complete occupation of Kulong City.

On November 11th, the spokesperson for the Myanmar military government's news group, General Zaw Min Tun, stated that forces under the command and strategy of the Defense Forces were engaging with the enemy around Kulong City. Additionally, he refused to abandon entire regions, instead of just parts, for some cities influenced by the Northern Alliance.

On November 12th, the Myanmar military announced the imposition of military control in eight townships in the Shan State, including the areas of Kwekaw, Kyaukme, Namkham, Muse, Lashio, Hsipaw, and Nansang.

On November 14th, the Alliance Army issued an order for the "Clearance of Residual Enemies in Laotie." The Indian Ministry of Defense repatriated 39 Myanmar army soldiers who had sought refuge in Mizoram.

On November 15th, the Alliance Army reported that the entire 129th Battalion surrendered in Shan State. The surrender of 127 soldiers and 134 family members marked the largest scale surrender since the escalation of conflicts following the 2021 coup.

On November 17th, the former Deputy Chief of Staff of the National Democratic Alliance Army and leader of the Kunming Special Region, Baso Cham, was intercepted by the Myanmar military while attempting to leave Kunming.

On November 18th, the military successfully launched an offensive, reclaiming the Sakhan Thit Kone base in Namhkam Town, which had been occupied by the Alliance Army the previous day. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army accused the military government of using chemical weapons during the attack, causing symptoms such as dizziness, difficulty breathing, nausea, extreme restlessness, fatigue, and low oxygen levels among the troops.

On November 24th, after 28 days of fighting, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) regained control of the Mine Kyat base in Lashio Town, capturing heavy equipment, including a D-30 howitzer. They had previously abandoned the base following airstrikes by the military government.

On November 29th, it was reported that after the surrender of the Myanmar military's 125th Light Infantry Battalion, the National Defense Army occupied Konkyan Town in the Kunming Special Region's SAZ. A total of 186 Myanmar military soldiers and 86 family members surrendered in Konkyan.

December 2023
On December 6th, the Defense Forces occupied a military outpost on the Four Buddha Mountain south of Laotie. This marked the last military government outpost between the Brotherhood Alliance and Laotie.

On December 13th, the Kachin Independence Army, along with the All Burma Students' Democratic Front and the People's Defense Forces, seized control of Maw Luu Town from the military government forces. After capturing the town, the military government conducted airstrikes on Maw Luu.

On December 18th, anti-military armed forces took complete control of Nankhan Town and its surroundings.

On December 21st, the military government bombed an internally displaced persons camp in Mantong, destroying at least 15 houses and a monastery. This bombing was part of a larger-scale operation, with more than 180 airstrikes on Mantong Town by the air force.

On December 29th, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army took control of Nantoo, prompting the military government forces to bombard the town.

January 2024
On January 3rd, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army claimed to have gained control of Mongkao Town in Shan State. The Irrawaddy reported that the Ta'ang forces also occupied a military camp in Nawnghkio Town, with the military government forces launching a counterattack to reclaim the area.

On January 5th, after a significant number of military government forces and officials surrendered, the National Democratic Alliance Army took complete control of Laotie, the capital of the Kunming Special Region.

Impact：
According to the report from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) as of October 30, 2023, the ongoing conflict has led to over 6,200 people recently becoming internally displaced, with approximately 1,000 seeking refuge in the forests and over 5,000 displaced individuals taking shelter in temporary camps, primarily located in religious sites. In the town of Kutkai, the destruction of power lines during the conflict resulted in a power outage, while in several towns, including Hsenwi, Kutkai, Muse, Namhkan, and the Kokang Self-Administered Zone, mobile communication services have been disrupted. According to reports from "Myanmar Now," local rescue workers claim that the fighting has displaced over 25,000 people, with approximately half seeking refuge in Wanonnamti.

As of November 21, it is estimated that, due to the rebel attacks, approximately 335,000 people across Myanmar have been internally displaced, with hundreds of civilians injured and casualties reported. This situation indicates a significant impact on the lives and safety of the local population, triggering a humanitarian crisis.

On January 6th, Major General Tun Tun Min of the Myanmar Defense Forces officially announced his surrender to the Wa State and the Kunming Alliance Army.

On January 13th, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) stated that the military government had violated their ceasefire agreement by conducting airstrikes in various townships in northern Shan State, including Lashio and Kyaukme.

On January 26th, fighters from the Palaung National Liberation Army (PNLA) and the Karen National Defense Front (KNDF) attacked Hsi Hseng Town in the southern part of Shan State. The PNLA had previously signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement but ended its neutrality and declared war on the military government as tensions escalated, including a minor clash with a PNLA convoy. This marked the first battle in southern Shan State since the conflict began.