Draft:Eastern Washington Water Risk

Water from precipitation and snowpack runoff is a crucial resource for Eastern Washington. Even though changes in annual precipitation due to climate change are expected to remain small in the Pacific Northwest, the risk of reduced water availability will increase significantly driven by snowpack drought. As snowpack levels decrease due to climate change, there are concerns about water availability for communities, agriculture, and hydropower production in Eastern Washington. From 1955 to 2022, average change in April snowpack across sites in western United States declined by about a 23 percent. Additionally, from 1982 to 2021, the average snowpack season became shorter decreasing by about 18 days. Lower snowpack leads to reduced water supply in rivers and reservoirs during the dry summer months, affecting both water quality and quantity. Washington depends significantly on snowpack melting into streams and aquifers during the spring and summer for water supply. A snowpack drought occurs when precipitation levels remain normal, but the precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, which is the historical pattern. Climate models indicate that by 2050, we can anticipate a snowpack drought in more than 40 percent of years. This poses challenges for managing water resources and highlights the need for adaptation strategies to address the impacts of a changing climate on water availability in the region.

Key water risk impacts for the region include :


 * Water Scarcity: Reduced snowpack means less water stored for the dry summer months, leading to water scarcity for communities, agriculture, and ecosystems that rely on snowmelt for water supply.
 * Hydropower Production : Shrinking water availability and increased variability in water flow timing can reduce hydropower generation, reducing the production of electricity from renewable sources.
 * Water Quality: Lower snowpacks can lead to higher water temperatures and lower stream flows, affecting water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems.
 * Recreation and Tourism: Decreased water availability can affect recreation activities such as boating and fishing, impacting local economies that rely on tourism.
 * Fire Danger : Especially dry conditions beyond the norm suggest the onset of drought, which can elevate the risk of wildfires.

Watershed Importance
The Columbia River and its tributaries are the primary water source for the region, providing water for irrigation, hydroelectric power generation, and other industries. Several large dams, including the McNary Dam and Grand Coulee Dam, help regulate the rivers' flow and provide electricity to millions of people in the western United States. In 2016, over eight million people lived within the Columbia's drainage basin. Of this total about 2.1 million people lived in Washington and 3.5 million people lived in Oregon. Population in the Columbia River watershed has been rising for many decades and is projected to rise to about 10 million by 2030. Although much of the watershed is rural and sparsely populated, areas with recreational and scenic values are growing rapidly. Populations have been growing across the region, including just east of the Cascades in central Washington around the city of Yakima and the Tri-Cities area. Projections for the coming decades assume growth throughout the Columbia River and its tributaries. The Columbia River is a vital resource for the Pacific Northwest, supporting diverse ecosystems, recreational opportunities, and a variety of industries. It remains an important symbol of the region's natural beauty and cultural heritage. Declines in Columbia River flows will have broad and far-reaching impacts in multiple areas.

Irrigation
Irrigated lands play a crucial role in Washington State's agriculture and economy. They contribute significantly to the state's agricultural output, which is diverse and includes crops like apples, potatoes, wheat, hops, and wine grapes. Washington's agriculture is often cited as a cornerstone of the state's economy, providing jobs and income for many residents. According to the Washington State Department of Agriculture, agriculture contributes over $51 billion to the state's economy and provides more than 164,000 jobs. Irrigated lands are important in this context, as they enable the cultivation of high-value crops and support the state's position as a leading producer of several agricultural products.

The Columbia Basin Project, focused on irrigating the arid region of central Washington, has been instrumental in transforming the area into a major agricultural center. It provides water to over 670 thousand acres of land, enabling the cultivation of various crops and significantly contributing to the region's economy. The economic impact of irrigated lands extends beyond agriculture. The availability of water for irrigation also supports industries such as livestock, food processing and manufacturing, which further contribute to the state's economy.

Overall, irrigated lands are vital to Washington State's economy, supporting multiple industries, and playing a crucial role in the region's water management.

Overall Economic Impact
In 2015, Washington State faced one of its driest periods, prompting the Department of Ecology to commission a thorough study on the drought's impact. The study, conducted by the Washington State Department of Agriculture's (WSDA) Natural Resources Assessment Section (NRAS), aimed to evaluate the gross value of lost production and additional expenses incurred by growers. The WSDA's assessment targeted various hydrological regions across the state and analyzed the primary commodities, encompassing more than 77% of agricultural acreage in Washington. The findings indicated that agricultural losses due to the 2015 drought were estimated to be between $633 million and $773 million. The 2015 impacts can be presumed to be indicative of future water risk affects.

Adaption Strategies
Several potential adaption strategies exist for addressing the likely decline in water availability in Eastern Washington.

Ground Water
Leveraging ground water supplies is an unsustainable strategy. Groundwater levels in most aquifers layers are declining across Eastern Washington.