Draft:India Out

The India Out campaign is a non-violent boycott movement in Bangladesh, encouraging the people to boycott Indian goods, with the aim of ending India's alleged interference in Bangladesh's internal socio-political affairs. This campaign has been initiated by influencers opposing Sheikh Hasina's Awami League-led government, which has held power in Bangladesh since 2008. One of the key figure in this movement is Pinaki Bhattacharya, an exiled Bangladeshi physician who is also a staunch critic of Sheikh Hasina's government. He originally started this movement in a video posted on his YouTube channel in January 2024, and has since regularly encouraged boycott of Indian goods and services.

Background
Historically, India has always preferred the Awami League and has maintained good relations with the party and backed the country politically and diplomatically since it came to power in 2008. India has since then faced numerous allegations by the opposition of interfering in Bangladesh's internal affairs, all of which India has strongly denied. Many experts have suggested India backs Sheikh Hasina's government staunchly.

Even before the current movement, there was already a strong anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh for a long time. This was most obvious in November 2023, when there was widespread celebrations in Bangladesh when India lost the 2023 ICC Cricket World cup Finals to Australia. Social media videos showed rabid celebrations which sparked debates about anti-India sentiment in the country. Touhid Hossain, who served as Bangladesh's foreign secretary under a past caretaker government, said Bangladeshis harbor deep-seated grievances against India. "Bangladeshi people expressed joy spontaneously when India lost to Australia in last Cricket World Cup," he said. "This is actually not because of defeat in cricket, but due to severe hatred to India on many issues".

Avinash Paliwal, an expert in Bangladesh–India relations, said that India has extraordinary influence in Bangladesh politics. He said, “There is a clear consensus in the Indian political ecosystem to support the Awami League. India has diplomatic and political capital within the Awami League and in sections of the armed forces. It has favourites in the army and in the Awami League. They have favourite individuals and [India] has leverage over them.” He said that these Bangladesh politicians and senior officials “are people who ask for Indian advice about decisions.” “In Awami League, people lobby to get Indian support. That is known in the army, police, and intelligence services and within the Awami League. This is a known and an accepted fact. It is just not articulated.” He went on to say, “The Awami League has given India that pride of place. It is the Awami League who is giving India a berth within Bangladesh rather than India desiring it.”

Asif Nazrul, a professor at Dhaka University stated that the tenure of Awami League serves India's security, strategic, and economic interests. He noted that the Awami-League government has failed to oppose India's "shoot-to-kill" policy under which hundreds of innocent Bangladeshis have been killed by Indian border guards at the Bangladesh-India Border and also its withdrawal of water from rivers vital for Bangladesh's economic needs.

Reception
The campaign started and gained traction days after the controversial 2024 Bangladesh General election, boycotted by all major opposition parties, where Sheikh Hasina's Awami League won an overwhelming majority for the 4th consecutive term. The key figure of this campaign, Pinaki Bhattacharya said that, "The citizens of Bangladesh hold the view that Indian influence played a pivotal role in the United States' decision to retract from imposing visa restrictions in the aftermath of a sham election. Such visa restrictions were seen as a potential lever to bolster our demands for a free and fair electoral process".

Indian media have repeated the claimed that the main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party(BNP) have started this campaign. However this claim has been refuted and the BNP has mostly stayed silent on this movement but has however blamed India for interfering in the country's internal affairs. Rumeen Farhana, the central international affairs secretary of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, insisted her party has nothing to do with the campaign but said India has been pulling out all the stops to keep "one political party of its choice" in power. Ruhul Kabir Rizvi Ahmed, a senior joint secretary general of the BNP, denied the party's involvement in the campaign but made pointed comments on India. However, district-level BNP leaders have called people to join the movement. On the 24th of January, Mir Shahe Alam, president of a BNP sub-district unit said, "We have to boycott Indian products," he told a meeting. "We won't buy Indian products and also won't let our relatives do so".

After the campaign started in mid-January 2024, it is mainly being driven on social media, and hashtags like #IndiaOut, #BoycottIndia, and #BoycottIndianProducts have been trending on platforms such as Facebook and X. Numerous social media influencers, other than Pinaki, have made videos encouraging people to boycott Indian goods and services, to end alleged Indian interference in Bangladeshi Politics, including small political parties.

Nurul Haque Nur, the leader of the Human rights organisation Gono Odhikar Parishad and a popular anti-Hasina activist, has also called for the boycott of Indian products on the basis of their alleged interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs. His organisation has also distributed leaflets to the people encouraging everyone to boycott Indian products.

Numerous processions have also taken place in support of this movement in the country since the start of the campaign. On the 24th of February 2024, the police foiled a procession, that was brought out by activists of the 12-Party Alliance with a call to boycott Indian products and protest alleged Indian interference in Bangladesh's internal affairs in front of the Jatiya Press Club.

Impact
A report by Al Jazeera in early February 2024 stated that shopkeepers said Indian products which used to sell very well, have plummeted to almost zero sales and other shopkeepers have voluntarily decided to participate in the boycott by not selling Indian products.

A report by Voice of America in mid-February stated that several shopkeepers in Dhaka and Chittagong, the first and second largest city in Bangladesh respectively, told them they've seen a drop in sales of Indian goods such as cooking oil, processed foods, toiletry, cosmetics and clothing. Indian traders have told Voice of America that they haven't seen any impact.

Jyoti Rahman, an Australia-based economist, told Al Jazeera that this movement may be politically important and will send a strong impact to Indian policymakers about growing discontent about India's influence in Bangladesh but said the economic impact is not clear yet. He pointed out Bangladesh comprises only 3.5% of India's export market and the Indian economy may not be affected as the products may find an alternative destination. However Bangladesh depends on India for a fifth of its imports which includes essentials such as cotton for the garments sector, cereals and onions. Finding an essential for these imports may stroke inflation further. Pinaki Bhattacharya said in February that for the time being, the boycott is targetted towards Fast-moving consumer goods.