Draft:Kamiar Mohaddes

Kamiar Mohaddes (born May 26, 1981) is a Swedish-Iranian macroeconomist at the University of Cambridge. He is a specialist of the economic impact of climate change and more generally energy economics, and his work in the area has been covered in major news outlets including the BBC , the Financial Times , and the New York Times among others.

He has served as the Deputy Director of the Cambridge Executive MBA programme since 2023 and is an Associate Professor in Economics & Policy at the Cambridge Judge Business School since 2019. In recognition of his teaching contributions, Mohaddes was one of five recipients of the 2023 Cambridge Judge Business School Excellence in Teaching Award.

Mohaddes is also a Fellow of King's College, Cambridge where he co-founded the King's Entrepreneurship Lab, a venture incubator which aims to “be a College pioneer in education, learning and research of entrepreneurship and innovation”.

He consults for a variety of external organizations including the Asian Development Bank, the Bank of Canada, and is regularly a Visiting Scholar at the International Monetary Fund.

Education and Career
Mohaddes obtained his Bachelor of Science (BSc) in Economics from the University of Warwick in 2004.

In 2006, he received his Master of Philosophy (MPhil) in Economics from St. John’s College at the University of Cambridge. He continued his education the University of Cambridge, obtaining a PhD in Economics in 2011 as a Gates Scholar under the supervision of Hashem Pesaran.

Currently, Mohaddes serves as a fellow at the Circular Economy Centre (CEC) and the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF) at the Cambridge Judge Business School. He is also an associate researcher with the Energy Policy Research Group within the same institution. Since 2016, he has held the position of Executive Secretary of the International Iranian Economic Association (IIEA).

Academia
Mohaddes is notable for his work on applied macroeconomics of climate change and sustainability, having covered these topics in both English and Persian. In 2023, he received the Sandra Dawson Research Impact Award for his significant contributions to creating real-world impact through research on the economics of climate change.

Climate Change

Mohaddes' research has shown that the impact of climate change could cost the world 3% of growth, with the United States being more impacted than previously thought. His research also showed that an increase in average global temperature by 0.04 degrees Celsius per year will reduce world real GDP per capita by around seven per cent by 2100 and virtually all countries will be affected.

Credit Ratings and Climate Crisis

In another study, Mohaddes proved that credit ratings were predicted to fall sharply as a direct consequence of the climate crisis. This has led him to advocate strongly for rapid policy changes to mitigate these impacts in an interview for the Washington Post.

Other Research Interests

In addition to his work on climate change and energy economics, Mohaddes has worked on the macroeconomics of Arab countries , with a particular focus on Iran and on fiscal policies during the COVID-pandemic.

Academia
2022:


 * Social Media Enables People-Centric Climate Action in the Hard-to-Decarbonise Building Sector, with R. Debnath, R. Bardhan, D. U. Shah, M. H. Ramage, R. M. Alvarez, and B. K. Sovacool (2022), Scientific Reports (Nature Portfolio) 12, pp. 19017/1–17.
 * Macroeconomic Effects of Global Shocks in the GCC: Evidence from Saudi Arabia, with M. Raissi and N. Sarangi, Middle East Development Journal 14:2, pp. 219–239.

2021:


 * Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis, with M. E. Kahn, R. N. C. Ng, M. H. Pesaran, M. Raissi, and J.-C. Yang, Energy Economics 104, pp. 105624/1–13.
 * Climate Change and Fiscal Sustainability: Risks and Opportunities, with M. Agarwala, M. Burke, P. Klusak, U. Volz, and D. Zenghelis, National Institute Economic Review 258, pp. 28–46.
 * A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model, with A. Chudik, M. H. Pesaran, M. Raissi, and A. Rebucci, Journal of International Money and Finance 119, pp. 102477/1–26.
 * Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption: Crack Based Evidence from California, with A. Flamini and B. Jahanshahi, European Journal of Political Economy 69, pp. 102005/1– 14.
 * Covid-19 Fiscal Support and its Effectiveness, with A. Chudik and M. Raissi, Economics Letters 205, pp. 109939/1–5.
 * Words Against Injustices: A Deep Narrative Analysis of Energy Cultures in Poverty of Abuja, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro, with R. Debnath, R. Bardhan, S. Darby, M. Sunikka-Blank, A. C. Villaça Coelho, and A. Isa, Energy Research & Social Science 72, pp. 101892/1–17.

2020:


 * The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter, with C. Couharde, O. Damette, and R. Generoso, Annals of Economics and Statistics 140, pp. 83- 126.
 * The Adaptive Investment Effect: Evidence from Chinese Provinces, with R. J. Williams, Economics Letters 193, pp. 109332/1-4.
 * Grounded Reality Meets Machine Learning: A Deep-narrative Analysis Framework for Energy Policy Research, with R. Debnath, S. Darby, R. Bardhan, and M. Sunikka- Blank, Energy Research & Social Science 69, pp. 101704/1-14.
 * Asymmetric Oil Prices and Trade Imbalances: Does the Source of the Oil Shock Matter?, with H. Jibril and K. Chaudhuri, Energy Policy 137, pp. 1–15.
 * Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR, with A. Chudik and M. H. Pesaran, in T. Li, M. H. Pesaran, and D. Terrell (eds.), Advances in Econometrics (Volume 41): Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao, pp. 143–189. Emerald Publishing.

2019:


 * The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy, with M. Raissi, Empirical Economics 57:5, pp. 1515–1546.
 * Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, with J. B. Nugent, and H. Selim, Oxford University Press.
 * Objectives, Issues and Findings, with J. B. Nugent and Hoda Selim, in K. Mohaddes, J. B. Nugent, and H. Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource- Rich Arab Economies, pp. 1–14. Oxford University Press.
 * Oil, Volatility and Institutions: Cross-Country Evidence from Major Oil Producers, with A. El-Anshasy and J. B. Nugent, in K. Mohaddes, J. B. Nugent, and H. Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, pp. 52–72. Oxford University Press.
 * Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals, with J. B. Nugent and H. Selim, in K. Mohaddes, J. B. Nugent, and H. Selim (eds.), Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies, pp. 237– 271. Oxford University Press.
 * Oil Price Volatility, Financial Institutions, and Economic Growth, with U. Jarrett and H. Mohtadi, Energy Policy 126, pp. 131–144.

2018:


 * The Dynamics and Determinants of Kuwait’s Long-Run Economic Growth, with N. A. Burney, A. Alawadhi, and M. Al-Musallam, Economic Modelling 71, pp. 289–304.
 * Rising Public Debt to GDP Can Harm Economic Growth, with A. Chudik, M. H. Pesaran, and M. Raissi, Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 13:3, pp. 1– 4.
 * Kuwait’s Macroeconomic Performance in the Global Context, with A. Alawadhi, N. A. Burney, and A. Al-Khayat, Arab Journal of Administrative Sciences 25:1, pp. 93–119.

2017:


 * Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?, with A. Chudik, M. H. Pesaran, and M. Raissi, Review of Economics and Statistics 99:1, pp. 135–150.
 * Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño, with P. Cashin and M. Raissi, Journal of International Economics 106, pp. 37–54.
 * Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around?, with M. H. Pesaran, Energy Economics 65, pp 315–325.
 * China’s Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out?, with P. Cashin and M. Raissi, Emerging Markets Review 31, pp. 164–175.
 * Can Italy Grow Out of Its NPL Overhang? A Panel Threshold Analysis, with M. Raissi and A. Weber, Economics Letters 159, pp. 185–189.
 * Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?, with M. Raissi, Journal of Commodity Markets 8, pp. 18–27.

2016:


 * Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis, with M. H. Pesaran, Energy Economics 59, pp. 382–399.
 * El Niño: Good Boy or Bad?, with P. Cashin and M. Raissi, Finance & Development, 53:1, pp. 30–33.
 * The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles, with P. Cashin and M. Raissi, in I. A. Elbadawi and H. Selim (eds.), Understanding and Avoiding the Oil Curse in Resource-rich Arab Economies, pp. 16–43. Cambridge University Press.
 * Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors, with A. Chudik, M. H. Pesaran, and M. Raissi, in R. C. Hill, G. Gonzalez-Rivera, and T.-H. Lee (eds.), Advances in Econometrics (Volume 36): Essays in Honor of Aman Ullah, pp. 85–135. Emerald Publishing.
 * Does Inflation Slow Long-Run Growth in India?, with M. Raissi, in R. Anand and P. Cashin (eds.), Taming Indian Inflation, pp. 115–129. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

2015:


 * Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth, with T. Cavalcanti and M. Raissi, Journal of Applied Econometrics 30:6, pp. 857–873.

2014:


 * The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy, with P. Cashin, M. Raissi and M. Raissi, Energy Economics 44, pp. 113–134.
 * An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters, with H. S. Esfahani and M. H. Pesaran, Journal of Applied Econometrics 29:1, pp. 1–21.
 * One Hundred Years of Oil Income and the Iranian Economy: A Curse or a Blessing?, with M. H. Pesaran, in P. Alizadeh and H. Hakimian (eds.), Iran and the Global Economy: Petro Populism, Islam and Economic Sanctions. Routledge, London.

2013:


 * Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan, with M. Raissi, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 9:2, pp. 99–131.
 * Oil Exports and the Iranian Economy, with H. S. Esfahani and M. H. Pesaran, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 53:3, pp. 221–237.
 * Econometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletion, OPEC Energy Review 37:2, pp. 162-193.
 * Inflation Differentials in the GCC: Does the Oil Cycle Matter?, with O. H. Williams, Middle East Development Journal 5:2, pp. 1–23.

2011:


 * Growth, Development and Natural Resources: New Evidence Using a Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, with T. Cavalcanti and M. Raissi, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 51:4, pp. 305–318.
 * Does Oil Abundance Harm Growth?, with T. Cavalcanti and M. Raissi, Applied Economics Letters 18:12, pp. 1181–1184.