Draft:Somalia Constitutional crisis (2023–present)

Background
On May 28, 2023, President Hassan Sheikh of Somalia announced plans to implement universal suffrage, replacing the existing clan-based election system. This decision was reached following a four-day conference in Mogadishu, where the National Consultative Council (NCC) agreed to transition to direct universal suffrage by 2024, eliminating the 4.5 clan-based voting system.

The constitutional crisis in Somalia emerged when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pushed for constitutional amendments aimed at expanding presidential powers, potentially leading to a constitutional deadlock in the country. This initiative, perceived as a bid to centralize authority, unfolded against the backdrop of Somalia's fragile political equilibrium. Amidst these developments, scrutiny intensified on Somalia's power-sharing dynamics, raising apprehensions regarding the nation's future stability.

President Mohamud's appointment of Hussein Sheikh Mohamud as his senior adviser on constitutional affairs also fueled controversy amidst ongoing debates surrounding the amendment process of the Federal Government Constitution. Analysts argue that the President's unilateral pursuit of constitutional changes lacks sufficient consultation with crucial Somali stakeholders, including political figures, cultural elders, and Federal Member States like Puntland and Somaliland.

On 27 November 2023. a group of Federal Parliament of Somalia announced the establishment of the National Correction Caucus, claiming it is designed to protect the country's constitutional framework. This action comes after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pushes for transitioning from a parliamentary to a presidential system, which includes abolishing the position of prime minister and introducing a vice president.

The amendments notably curtail the powers of the Prime Minister and introduce direct presidential elections, departing from the indirect system where elders selected legislators who then elected the president. Additionally, the amendments set a five-year limit on federal autonomy, after which state leaders must seek reelection.

Constitution
Since 2012, Somalia has operated under a provisional constitution that was originally intended to be finalized by the Federal Parliament by 2016. This constitution was adopted provisionally by the National Constituent Assembly, which consisted of 825 representatives from diverse segments of society. The decision to adopt it provisionally was necessitated by the inability to hold a referendum due to ongoing security challenges.

Despite efforts by two previous federal administrations, the task of finalizing the constitution remained unaccomplished. In May 2023, the current Somali government initiated a process to amend and formally approve the constitution. This move aims to address longstanding challenges and establish a comprehensive legal framework that reflects the aspirations of Somalia's diverse populace. The process is crucial for stabilizing the country's governance structures and paving the way for sustained political and social development. However, the recent opposition from various political figures and factions, including Puntland and other key stakeholders concerned about the inclusivity and transparency of the ongoing constitutional reform efforts.

Puntland


Semi-autonomous state of Puntland, the oldest federal member state known as the "Mother of Federalism," strongly opposes the current constitutional reforms. Its leaders argue that rather than finalizing a new constitution, the reforms merely modify Somalia's provisional charters.

The constitutional change process has sparked new tensions between the federal government and the semi-autonomous Puntland government.

Several prominent Somali politicians also oppose the constitutional changes. These include former President Sheikh Sharif and his Prime Minister Abdiweli Gaas, former Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid, and Abdirahman Farole, former President of Puntland and current senator from Nugal. These five figures were the original signatories of the provisional charters in 2012.

Other Opposition political figures like former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, and member of the house of People Abdirahman Abdishakur, serving as a Presidential Envoy for drought, argue that the amplification of presidential powers could potentially undermine the role of the Prime Minister as a check.

On January 8, 2024. Puntland elections were held in Puntland, President Said Abdullahi Deni was re-elected, All the opposition participated in the inauguration of the president of Puntland.

Puntland Declaration of Independence
On January 31, 2024. Puntland announced its withdrawal from the federal system, Puntland cabinets in their emergency meeting stated their intention to govern independently until constitutional amendments proposed by the central government are ratified through a nationwide referendum.

Puntland also accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of violating the constitution and losing his legitimacy.

Puntland's denial resulted in concerns over the rushed nature of the amendment process and the lack of genuine public participation. Puntland's withdrawal from the federal system underscores growing discontent with the central government's approach to governance and constitutional reforms.

Mohamud Aidid Dirir, Puntland minister of information accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of “gather[ing] authority into his hands.” This is the second time Puntland has cut ties with the HSM administration. In January 2023, the Puntland Government announced that it was acting independently from the federal government until the completion of the constitution via referendum.

On 3 April 2024. the dispute between Puntland and the federal government escalated when Puntland minister of finance met with representatives of the Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Ministry in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to discuss trade cooperation. This meeting was not coordinated with the federal government of Somalia.

Somaliland
Unlike Puntland, the breakaway region of Somaliland has firmly distanced itself from these amendments. Somaliland authorities maintain that they have never been party to the constitution utilized by Somalia, underlining their longstanding separation from the central government's legal framework.

Ali Hassan Mohamed, Somaliland's minister for information, reiterated the region's stance, asserting that they are unaffected by outcomes in Mogadishu. He mentioned Somaliland's historical rejection of Somalia's constitution, dating back to the nation's inception in 1960. Mohamed highlighted that Somaliland's interests lie outside of Mogadishu politics, emphasizing a desire to avoid exacerbating existing political divisions within Somalia.

Somaliland declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, yet its sovereignty remains unrecognized internationally. Despite this, Somaliland has pursued agreements with neighboring countries like Ethiopia, aimed at potentially securing recognition as a sovereign state.

Crisis in detail
On 19 March 2024. Over 70 members from both chambers of the federal parliament strongly opposed President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's plans to amend the country's provisional constitution following a meeting in Mogadishu.

On 30 March 2024, the federal parliament of Somalia approved several constitutional changes that the government says are necessary to establish a stable political system.

31 March 2024, Puntland said it has withdrawn from the federal system and will govern itself independently until constitutional amendments are passed by the central government and approved in a nationwide referendum.

On 03 April 2024. the Federal Government of Somalia has ordered Ethiopia's ambassador to leave the country within 72 hours, along with the closure of Ethiopia's consulates in Somaliland and Puntland. Diplomats and staff must vacate within a week.