Draft:Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis'

Clinical prediction models (or clinical prediction rules) are tools used to that use medical signs, symptoms and other patient information to estimate the probability of a specific undiagnosed disease or clinical outcome (to aid diagnosis) or to estimate the probability that specific disease or clinical outcome will occur in the future (to aid prognosis).. . Examples of prediction models include QRISK that predicts the probability of cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years, or EuroSCORE for predicting the risk of death after a heart operation

To be used in clinical practice, health technology assessment groups, policy makers and regulators need to understand how a prediction model was developed and the accuracy of the model in predicting the clinical outcome. However, numerous studies investigating the completeness of information that medical researchers include in their studies describing the development and validation of a clinical prediction model have shown that important details needed to understand why a clinical prediction model was developed, how it was developed and validated (i.e., its predictive performance evaluated), the clinical decision it is intended to support are often missing. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) encompasses various initiatives developed by the TRIPOD Group to alleviate the problems arising from inadequate reporting of Clinical prediction rules in the published medical research literature.

The TRIPOD guidelines are part of the larger international EQUATOR Network initiative to enhance the transparency and accuracy of reporting in research, and are widely endorsed by medical journals.

TRIPOD Statement
The main product of the TRIPOD Group is the TRIPOD Statement, which is an evidence-based, minimum set of recommendations for reporting Clinical prediction rules in the form of a checklist. Authors complete the checklist indicating the page of the manuscript where they have addressed and reported each details requested in the checklist. The completed checklist is then submitted with the manuscript when the authors publish the research.

TRIPOD offers a standardised way for authors to prepare reports of clinical prediction models, facilitating their complete and transparent reporting, reducing the influence of bias on their results, and aiding their critical appraisal and interpretation. The checklist of reporting recommendations were published in 11 leading medical journals including Annals of Internal Medicine, British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology , BMC Medicine, BMJ , British Journal of Cancer , British Journal of Surgery , Circulation , Diabetic Medicine , European Journal of Clinical Investigation , European Urology and the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

The TRIPOD "Explanation and Elaboration" document explains and illustrates the principles underlying the TRIPOD Statement, it also gives authors examples of good reporting to help them write their own research article. It is strongly recommended that it be used in conjunction with the TRIPOD Statement.

Considered an evolving document, the TRIPOD Statement is subject to periodic changes as new evidence emerges; the most recent update was published in April 2024. The most recent version of the TRIPOD statement, now includes evidence-based recommendations for reporting prediction models that have been developing using artificial intelligence powered by machine learning methods and published in the BMJ

Extensions
Extensions of the TRIPOD Statement have been developed to give additional guidance for prediction model studies that have accounted for clustering such has accounting for data from different hospitals or countries. Other TRIPOD guidance includes guidance for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of clinical prediction models, and TRIPOD for Abstracts for providing recommendations for reporting journal and conference abstracts.

Similar initiatives to improve the reporting of other types of research have arisen after the introduction of CONSORT. They include: Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE), Standards for the Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (STARD), Strengthening the Reporting of Genetic Association studies (STREGA), Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA),, Standards for Quality Improvement Reporting Excellence (SQUIRE), among others. These reporting guidelines have been incorporated into the EQUATOR Network initiative to enhance the transparent and accurate reporting of research studies. . These reporting guidelines have been incorporated into the EQUATOR Network initiative to enhance the transparent and accurate reporting of research studies.