File talk:H5n1 spread (with regression).png

Colors critique
The colors in this image aren't chosen very well - I can guess that the regression is the smooth curve, but I can't visually differentiate them. Possibly due to my minor colorblindness? If someone who can easily alter this image sees this, it'd be nice to make the lines or colors a bit more differentiable. NegativeK 05:25, 11 January 2007 (UTC)
 * I'm not color blind and they look the same to me too. Was just coming here to point that out. Recury 17:24, 25 January 2007 (UTC)


 * Same Here, And I'm not color blind. Flubeca 22:54, 20 February 2007 (UTC)
 * I can see them both perfectly well. Seems fine to me! ffm   ✎ talk   12:43, 17 April 2007 (UTC)

Regression: not appropriate?
The regression plot brings a nice twist into the graph but it isn't particularly well pulled off and can't possibly be realistic. It seems that the intended objective was to model an exponential curve from the given data on flu deaths. That hypothesis doesn't make sense because it assumes that the deaths value can grow unrestrained, even outgrowing the number of infections. That, obviously, is not possible.

So in the end a more fitting regression method would be, for example, the logistic regression. As it accounts for a "ceiling", it can better fit that kind of values. So why not give it a try? --Mecanismo | Talk 01:00, 28 January 2007 (UTC)


 * I would leave out the regression entirely - the choice of which regression to use would probably be "unpublished synthesis", which is not allowed by WP:ATT. —AySz88\ ^ - ^ 05:20, 6 March 2007 (UTC)

the regression makes it more helpful to me
This is a really good graph, and I happen to like the regression, which provides a metric from which those of us wondering "is H5N1 doubling?" It gives us something to compare the data to in order to reach our own conclusions. Very helpful.

This graph no longer being maintained -- need help from Waitak
Unfortunately, the author of this excellent graph seems to no longer be maintaining it. If anyone knows how, please get in touch with him or her and ask for the algorithms and/or code (its written in OpenOffice.org and uses a bit of other programming) so that it can be kept up to date (which, when one has the code, just takes a few minutes whenever the U.N. updates its cases and fatalities table).

This wonderful chart was created, and updated, by Waitak until April 2007.


 * Updating this deserves some priority. The trend suggested by this graph no longer agrees with that suggested by its source.


 * WHO cumulative cases report table, sept 16th 2005: 69 cases
 * http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2005_09_16/en/index.html
 * sept 14th 2006: 99 cases
 * http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_09_14/en/index.html
 * sept 10th 2007: 65 cases
 * http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2007_09_10/en/index.html
 * If I understand the WHO table correctly, the total number of confirmed cases from january 2007 to september 10th 2007 is *LESS* than that in
 * jan-sept in 2006 and jan-sept in 2005. The current graph still suggests increasing cases and deaths.
 * I agree with the previous suggestion that the deaths regression curve should be removed entirely. Its methodology is questionable
 * and it remains unpublished.
 * Smocking 22:08, 20 September 2007 (UTC)

Waitak's (Dated, Partial) Instructions
While he was still updating the chart, Waitak wrote:

I maintain Template:H5N1 case graph (used in Global spread of H5N1) and Template:H5N1 Human Mortality (used in Transmission and infection of H5N1). I may be away from computer access for a week or two from time to time, and would hate for these not to be up to date, in case there are WHO updates during those times. Would anybody be willing to pinch hit in case I'm unable to get to a computer to update them? I've written some detailed instructions on what to do here. If you've ever used OpenOffice calc and GIMP, you're already qualified. If not, and you'd like to learn a couple of awesome tools, the directions are plenty complete enough to learn what you need to know. Once you've learned how to do it, it only takes about 15 minutes to do an update, so it's not a major time commitment. Any takers? Waitak 09:02, 29 May 2006 (UTC)

Need the spreadsheet H5N1.sxc from Waitak personally
Waitak's directions "[assume] that you have access to the spreadsheet H5N1.sxc, which you'll have to obtain from me personally. This spreadsheet is an OpenOffice Calc spreadsheet, constructed using version 1.1.5. You can use a later version (version 2.x is very nice) but please don't save your work as anything later than a version 1.1.5 spreadsheet, so that people with older copies can continue to edit it."