Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly

"Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly" is an editorial published in the New York Times on October 9, 1903. The article incorrectly predicted it would take one to ten million years for humanity to develop an operating flying machine. It was written in response to Samuel Langley's failed airplane experiment two days prior. Sixty-nine days after the article's publication, American brothers Orville and Wilbur Wright successfully achieved the first heavier-than-air flight on December 17, 1903, at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina.

Background
By the beginning of the twentieth century, popular opinion regarded air travel as impossible. Contemporary engineers and scientists were also pessimistic about flight. Notable critics included Simon Newcomb, Lord Kelvin, and the chief engineer of the US Navy, George W. Melville, the latter of whom described flying machines as "wholly unwarranted, if not absurd". After five years of preparations, aviation pioneer Samuel Langley was ready to test out his Aerodrome on October 7, 1903. Piloted by Charles Manly, the aircraft failed to fly and dropped into the Potomac River immediately after launch.

Article


The failure of the Aerodrome resulted in public ridicule of Langley. Two days after the failed experiment, an editorial published in the New York Times opined: On the same day as the published article, Orville Wright wrote in his diary, "We started assembly today", in reference to the first airplane that he and his brother, Wilbur, would fly shortly thereafter. On December 8, 1903 Langley made a final attempt to fly his Aerodrome. Once again, the experiment failed and official support for Langley's project was withdrawn. Another New York Times editorial commented:

On December 17, 1903, the Wright brothers disproved the New York Times—and many other doubters—with the successful flight of their airplane.

Legacy
Astronaut Dave Williams regards the article as "perhaps the most infamous bad prediction of all time". Political scientist P.W. Singer notes the article as his favorite example of a "completely and utterly wrong" prediction.

American President George W. Bush referenced the New York Times article during the centennial celebration of the Wright brothers' historic flight in December 2003.