ITEM club

The ITEM Club is an economic forecasting group based in the United Kingdom. ITEM stands for Independent Treasury Economic Model. It was founded in 1977 to produce quarterly economic UK forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media. It has been sponsored by EY (Ernst & Young), a firm of business and financial advisers, and was officially named The EY ITEM Club in 2012. The ITEM Club is clear in all its materials that it is independent of any political, academic or commercial bias despite corporate sponsorship.

The UK model is used by HM Treasury for its policy analysis and biannual Industry Act forecasts for the Budget. This enables ITEM to explore the implications and unpublished assumptions behind Government forecasts and policy measures. ITEM can test whether Government claims are consistent and can assess which forecasts are credible and which are not.

Martin Beck has been the EY ITEM Club's Senior Economic Advisor since July 2021 replacing Dr Howard Archer who was in role since June 2017. Archer took over from Professor Peter Spencer, one of the UK's most distinguished economists who had held the position since 2001.