Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements

The Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements were protest vote movements targeting the 2024 United States Democratic Party presidential primaries to protest US president Joe Biden's policy towards the Israel–Hamas war as part of larger Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States. After a notable "uncommitted" vote in the US state of Michigan, activists sought to replicate the protest in other US states. The movement is primarily led by a vocal minority of Muslim Americans, Arab Americans, and progressives.

While some activists under Abandon Biden argue against supporting Biden entirely during the 2024 general presidential election, others in uncommitted movements have argued for using uncommitted votes during the presidential primary to push for pro-Palestinian action before the presidential election. Both groups overlap and support each other's goals, to the point of being considered "twin" movements.

"Ceasefire" movement
On January 18, 2024, voters promoting a ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas war launched a write-in campaign for "ceasefire" in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Since incumbent president Joe Biden had declined to appear on the ballot due to DNC sanctions, with allies instead mounting a write-in campaign, advocates of the ceasefire campaign hoped that the increased focus on the write-in section of election results would send a message. New Hampshire secretary of state David Scanlan indicated that these "ceasefire" votes were tallied. Ultimately, "Ceasefire" received 1,497 votes, or 1.28%.

Uncommitted movements
The uncommitted movements are protest vote movements built around urging voters to write-in or check an uncommitted voting option to protest Biden's support for the Israel-Gaza war, and to push for a permanent ceasefire and ending military aide to Israel. The movements aims to "make these changes ahead of the general election or risk losing Democratic voter support".

2024 Michigan Democratic Primary
A movement for an uncommitted vote called Listen To Michigan was started by community organizers in Dearborn, including the younger sister to representative Rashida Tlaib with a budget of $250,000. The group aimed to use the uncommitted vote during the presidential primary to send a message to the Biden campaign to support a ceasefire, or else lose the presidential election. Both Rashida Tlaib and Dearborn mayor Abdullah Hammoud endorsed the campaign. Democratic Majority for Israel ran opposition ads against the uncommitted movement, arguing that a vote for uncommitted would represent support for Trump. Our Revolution endorsed the uncommitted movement and also helped support outreach for it.

Though the campaign aimed originally for 10,000 votes, which was the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost in the 2016 election, which was considered a low vote total historically, the final vote count exceeded it and reach 101,000 votes, or approximately 13.2% of the vote. As a result, the campaign won 2 delegates to send to the 2024 Democratic National Convention. While some progressive commentators, such as Michael Moore, stated that Biden's actions in Gaza could ultimately lose him the general election,  others, including Biden campaign officials, argued that the result matches similar uncommitted movements in 2012 and 2008 in Michigan.

In March 2024, Listen To Michigan announced it was expanding into a national operation.

2024 Super Tuesday uncommitted movement
After the Michigan result, organizers in several states launched similar campaigns. However, most states do not have a dedicated "uncommitted" option, which can make organizing a protest vote more difficult. Minnesota organizers launched a protest vote movement for "uncommitted" with only four days before the primary. The movement was able to improve on Michigan's vote share, winning over 18% of the vote and 11 delegates. In North Carolina, where no actual candidates made the ballot other than Biden, 12% voted for "no preference," which some sources attributed to groups protesting Biden's support for Israel. Multiple sources observed that though the movement had "spread to other base Democratic voters" besides Muslim Americans, results from Super Tuesday suggested the Democratic Party "continues to coalesce around Biden."

Other races
In the 2024 Hawaii Democratic presidential caucuses, the uncommitted vote achieved 455 votes, or nearly 29% of the vote total, which net the movement 6 delegates. However, Hawaii did not appear to have any specific organized uncommitted movement organization.

In Georgia, a coalition of multi-ethnic, multi-faith progressives launched a Listen to Georgia Coalition to replicate a similar protest movement. Because Georgia does not release write-in candidate results, a local news organization looked at blank ballots instead, finding 3% of Democratic primary voters had submitted blank ballots within 5 counties.

An effort was organized in Washington, where uncommitted achieved slightly over 9% of the vote.

In Kentucky, some of the 17.9% uncommitted vote was attributed to the protest vote movement.

Rhode Island sent at least 1 uncommitted delegate.

A "Vote No Preference" coalition in Massachusetts focused on pushing a No Preference vote.

A similar effort had been replicated in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and other states. However, few races after Super Tuesday have dedicated uncommitted options, and those which did not had few progressive, Muslim, or Arab American votes.

Impact
Some argued that as a result of the uncommitted movement, Kamala Harris began calling for a 6 week ceasefire in the region. Because the uncommitted option receives varied votes in each state during the primary, analysts find it "hard to compare apples-to-apples" the impact of the movement, especially with regards to past historical uncommitted vote results.

Though Biden supporters and some analysts generally suggest that the uncommitted vote is similar to historical patterns, some progressives, including Ro Khanna argue that the pattern of the vote suggests “particular groups of our coalition that are upset.” Some uncommitted results in states with historic Blue Dog Democrat populations (i.e. North Carolina, Kentucky) are believed to be attributed to conservative “DINOs” (i.e. Democrats in Name Only) who vote uncommitted during the primary but had become Republican and would never vote Democrat during a general election anyways. Some analysts argue that as the groups who voted uncommitted were in Biden's base, they would eventually vote for him in the general election, though the possibility of his base fracturing before the election remains.

Much of the uncommitted base seemed to be made up of young college students and Arab Americans. Young people, the group most likely to support Palestinians, did not appear to have the Israel-Gaza war as their main concern in many opinion polls.

By May, 2024, several progressive groups critical of Biden's Gaza policy began anti-Trump campaigns that were noted to indirectly help Biden. The New York Times said it was "one of the clearest signs yet that at least some of Mr. Biden's critics on the left will still work to stop Mr. Trump — even if they are lukewarm on the incumbent president."

Abandon Biden movement
Abandon Biden was originally started in Minnesota but has since spread to other swing states, with the goal of preventing a second-term Biden presidency. Many in the Abandon Biden movement have argued that Biden cannot undo damages, even if he called for a ceasefire and some within the movement have argued even for voting for Republicans in order to deny Biden a victory and to force both parties to pay attention to their cause,  though others say they will never vote for Trump and would instead write a third party candidate or abstain.

Trump has notably suggested total war in Gaza, deporting refugees from Gaza, revoking visas of pro-Palestinian demonstrators, and reinstituting a "Muslim ban", which many Democrats have argued would allow them to win Muslim votes. In addition, though Biden won many swing states by small margins, the Muslim American and Arab American proportion in most of those states constitutes a very small proportion of the electorate. However, some commentators argued that small margins of victory in swing states may suggest that the groups could have outsized effects. Michigan is noted as among the swing states with more than 200,000 Muslim voters, and 300,000 Arab Americans, well exceeding Biden's vote margin in 2020, and some have pointed out that disapproval with the conflict could be spreading to other groups such as youth and progressives.

An opinion video piece argued, in the aftermath of Biden's first debate, and subsequent calls to withdraw from the race, that Biden's biggest issue was still engagement from Arab and Muslim voters in swing states such as Michigan.

Other movements
A Black Muslim group called the Black Muslim Leadership Council has worked towards supporting the uncommitted movement, but have argued they would not necessarily abandon Biden during the presidential election.