Manifold (prediction market)

Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana'. Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars.

History
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.

Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program. It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.

In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny.

Market structure
Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website's play money, 'mana,' can be used on the site and redeemed for charitable donations at the value of 100 mana = $1 (USD), but it cannot be redeemed for money otherwise, allowing Manifold to avoid regulations around gambling. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".