Opinion polling on Scottish independence

Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns the nearly 300 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might impact the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.

Polls in the main table, using the same question, still show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.

Polls using Remain / Leave Question
Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.

The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".

Polls on a "de facto" referendum
On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the 2024 United Kingdom general election as a de facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.

Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
 * 1) Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
 * 2) Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
 * 3) Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
 * 4) Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
 * 5) Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.

A report released in 2017, entitled ''From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland'', detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".

Timing of a second referendum
Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic

UK-wide polling
Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.

Polls using 2014 referendum question

On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum Polling on a second referendum Timing of a Second Independence Referendum