P(doom)

P(doom) is a term in AI safety that refers to the probability of catastrophic outcomes (or "doom") as a result of artificial intelligence. The exact outcomes in question differ from one prediction to another, but generally allude to the existential risk from artificial general intelligence.

Originating as an inside joke among AI researchers, the term came to prominence in 2023 following the release of GPT-4, as high-profile figures such as Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio began to warn of the risks of AI. In 2022, a survey of AI researchers, which had a 17% response rate, found that the majority believed there is at least a 10% chance that our inability to control AI could cause an existential catastrophe.

Criticism
There has been some debate about the usefulness of P(doom) as a term, in part due to the lack of clarity about whether or not a given prediction is conditional on the existence of artificial general intelligence, the time frame, and the precise meaning of "doom".

In popular culture

 * In 2024, Australian rock band King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard launched their new label, named p(doom) Records.