Proposed further Welsh devolution

There have been calls for further Welsh devolution, increasing the autonomy for Wales, since the Welsh legislature of the Senedd was founded following the 1997 Welsh devolution referendum.

Crown Estate
In 2013, Dr Richard Cowell of Cardiff University said that devolution of the Crown estate in Wales "might enable a better quality of debate about the kind of off-shore renewable energy development pathway that is appropriate for Wales, and open up discussion on how the royalties from resource exploitation should be best invested."

Plaid Cymru called for the devolution of the Welsh Crown Estate in their manifesto in 2011. Liz Saville Roberts called for the devolution of the Crown Estate in Wales saying that a large majority in the Senedd supports its devolution and having the same powers as Scotland over the Crown Estate.

On 21 June 2021, Roberts presented the "Crown Estate (Devolution to Wales) Bill" to the UK Parliament saying this would “devolve management of the Crown Estate and its assets in Wales to the Welsh Government”. In 2022, Plaid Cymru MS Rhys ab Owen also called for the devolution of powers over the Welsh Crown Estate.

The first minister, Mark Drakeford suggested that devolving the Crown Estates in Wales to the Welsh government could enable the government to harness the renewable energy potential in Wales saying, “Geography is on our side. If you're on the west side of the UK, you have the prevailing winds. We are surrounded on three sides by water.” Liz Saville Roberts MP, leader of Plaid Cymru in Westminster, suggested that devolving these estates could “bring half a billion pounds worth of offshore wind and tidal stream potential under Welsh control." In January 2022, Wales' Climate Change minister Julie James stated that it is “outrageous” that the Crown Estate was devolved in Scotland and not in Wales.

The "Climate Change, Environment and Infrastructure Committee" of the Senedd published a report on 22 February 2022 recommending the devolution of the Crown Estate and using its income to combat climate change.

By July 2022, more than 11,000 supported the devolution of the Crown Estate in Wales with the petition reading, "This is money that would enable Wales to build and develop our own Welsh renewable energy industry rather than selling off our assets to the highest foreign bidder."

The Welsh Liberal Democrats also support the devolution of the Crown Estate in Wales as decided at their conference.

Mark Drakeford confirmed in January 2023 that devolving the Crown Estate was Welsh government policy.

Opposition
The secretary of state for Wales, Simon Hart said that Wales would not benefit from devolving the crown estate.

Boris Johnson said that devolution of the Crown Estate would "fragment the market, complicate existing processes and make it more difficult for Wales and the rest of the UK to move forward to net-zero”. The session of the UK Parliament 2021-22 was prorogued and therefore the bill for its devolution sponsored by Liz Saville Roberts did not continue.

In June 2022, Conservative MP Greg Hands said that he doesn't understand why there is support for devolving the Crown Estate to Wales. The Welsh Conservatives are opposed to devolving the crown estate to Wales.

Opinion Polls
In 2023, a poll by YouGov showed that a majority of 58% of the people of Wales support the devolution of the Crown Estate compared to 19% who are opposed and 23% who don't know.

Taxation and welfare
A 2020 YouGov poll found that 59% of Welsh voters would be in favour of devolution of tax and welfare, known as "devo-max". The question asked was “If there was a referendum tomorrow on the transferring of more powers to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament), including control of tax and welfare, but excluding defence and foreign affairs, how would you vote? Should more powers be transferred to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament)?”.

The Welsh government have also called for a vacant land tax to "incentivise developers to progress stalled developments to help provide high quality, safe and affordable housing." Sioned Williams, Plaid Cymru MS (member of Senedd) has called for devolution of welfare powers to the Senedd in response to cuts to Universal Credit made by the UK government. Williams also suggested that full taxation powers should be devolved to the Senedd because "any reforms to tackle poverty that we undertake in Wales will always be limited" without full taxation powers. A study by the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University concluded that devolvement of welfare benefits to Wales could increase the Welsh budget by £200 million per annum. The cross-party equality committee of the Senedd also concluded in 2019 that devolution of said powers may create a more "compassionate" system.

On 8 February 2023, Plaid Cymru called for the Welsh Government to support the devolution of setting all rates and bands for Welsh Income Tax. Plaid leader Adam Price said that lack of tax powers hampers effective policy-making in Wales, particularly in responding to the cost-of-living crisis and public services crises. This proposed devolution would match powers already devolved to the Scottish Parliament via the Scotland Act 2012. A report published earlier in the same week by the Senedd's Finance Committee recommended that the Welsh Government researches the risks and benefits of devolving powers to change income tax band rates and thresholds.

Opposition
On the other hand, first minister Mark Drakeford claims that Universal Credit is "better discharged" at a UK wide level and "part of the glue that holds the United Kingdom together" even after suggesting that the cuts to the welfare system by the UK government were "cruel and deliberate".

Justice system
The Labour Welsh Government, Plaid Cymru and various authors have called for the criminal justice system to move from an England and Wales system to a devolved Welsh system for Wales.

The Commission on Justice in Wales produced a report in 2019 assessing the justice system in Wales for the first time in over 200 years. The report criticised the UK government's funding of justice in Wales, noting that the cuts to the justice budget by the UK government was "amongst the most severe of all departmental budget cuts". The report notes how the Welsh Government has used its own money to attempt to "mitigate the damaging effects of these policies". 40% of justice funding is contributed in Wales in addition to Welsh taxpayers money paid to Westminster which is redistributed back to Wales. The report determined that "justice should be determined and delivered in Wales". In summary, the report made the following recommendations: Justice responsibilities should be held by a single Welsh MS and department, form a Welsh Criminal Justice Board, Criminal justice data should be Wales specific and more detailed and increased utilisation of prison alternatives, particularly for women.

There been calls for justice be devolved to the Senedd by the Welsh Government, and a report in 2022 proposed:


 * A focus on prevention and rehabilitation.
 * Reducing the prison population by pursuing alternatives to custody where appropriate. These include programmes to tackle mental health issues and support and treatment for drug and alcohol misuse.
 * Using a rights based approach to law and policy making, and further incorporation of internationally agreed rights into domestic law.

In December 2022 first minister Mark Drakeford reiterated his desire for devolution of justice and said about Gordon Brown's Labour manifesto proposals of devolution of probation and youth justice, "in a practical way, we should focus on those aspects first, and if we can secure their devolution to Wales, then we will be able to move on from there into the other aspects that would follow."

Opposition
A UK government spokesperson, David Wolfson said that Wales benefitted from the “reputation” of England’s justice system, which “has undeniably benefitted Wales and – as part of the England and Wales jurisdiction – has made it a popular place to do business internationally”.

Broadcasting
A cross-party Senedd inquiry via a report by The Culture, Welsh Language and Communications Committee concludes that the Senedd should have increased control over how broadcasting is both regulated and funded. The chair of this committee, MS Bethan Sayed concluded that Wales does not have "the media it needs to function as a successful nation". This report included the following recommendations: Increased broadcasting powers devolved, Ofcom with the Welsh and UK governments should state how media can be improved, an impartial fund formed by the Welsh government for news, establishment of an independent funding commission including a Welsh representative (with consent from other UK nations), all Welsh-language broadcasting devolved, Welsh government control of the Channel 3 licence (ITV) in Wales with increased Welsh content and improved BBC feedback forum for improvement of BBC policies.

In June 2022, the members of a new expert panel were announced for the devolution of communications and broadcasting powers to Wales as part of the co-operation agreement between the Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru.

It was revealed in November 2022 that former first minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones was offered the devolution of S4C by the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport at the time, Jeremy Hunt. Jones said that he could not agree to devolution of the channel because it was offered “without a budget and without a penny". The chair of Cymdeithas yr Iaith ("The Language Society") said that Jones should have accepted the offer and explored other means of funding, adding, “It’s been obvious for years that the Westminster Government is not interested in S4C. In 2010 it cut S4C’s funding significantly and the channel’s funding now comes through the BBC; S4C also has to share a number of resources with the BBC. So it’s not much surprise Westminster wants to wash their hands of the channel."

Opposition
UK Culture Minister Margot James said that broadcasting would remain a reserved power and is “the sort of thing which brings the union together”.

Rail infrastructure
Rail infrastructure funding is the responsibility of Network Rail and the UK Government but there are calls from the Welsh Government and cross-party agreement in the Senedd for the devolution of rail infrastructure to Wales, according to Ken Skates AM, Minister for Economy and Transport in a proposal for devolution document. The UK Government offered to devolve rail infrastructure to Wales in 2005 but the Welsh Assembly Government of the time refused the proposal, citing concerns around funding, the weakness of the Welsh civil service and possible issues arising from the levels of integration between Wales's rail infrastructure with England's. The Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University has concluded that Wales could have had an additional £514 million for investment from 2011 to 2012 and 2019 to 2020 if rail infrastructure was devolved during this period.

HS2's classification as an England and Wales project, whilst being entirely in England has also been used as a reason for rail infrastructure devolution, with Westminster Welsh Affairs committee finding that HS2 will not benefit Wales and needs better north–south links. This classification means that Wales "loses out" on £5bn of rail spending. Mark Drakeford has suggested that rail infrastructure should be devolved, saying "the union connectivity review that the UK Government established concluded that devolution had been good for transport" and added that "successive Welsh Governments have made for the devolution of responsibility in rail to the Senedd, accompanied though, as Ken Skates has said, by the funding that needs to go alongside that responsibility.”

In March 2023, a second rail project, Northern Powerhouse Rail was classified as an England and Wales project, meaning Wales would not receive a £1bn Barnett consequential. Plaid Cymru MP Liz Saville Roberts again called for the full devolution of rail infrastructure.

Opposition
The UK government said that devolution of rail network was considered as part of the St David's Day process, suggesting that its devolution did not political consensus. The UK government added that it would not devolve rail infrastructure and did not intent to revisit discussions.

Shared Prosperity Fund
The Shared Prosperity Fund is a UK government fund that replaced the European Structural Funds following Brexit from the EU. European Structural Funding to Wales averaged £375m during EU membership with decision making by the Welsh government. Labour leader Keir Starmer has promised to devolve the EU replacement fund to the Welsh government, if Labour is elected in the 2024 United Kingdom general election. Plaid Cymru have also introduced a Bill for the devolution of the Shared Prosperity Fund.

Opposition
A UK Government spokesman said that the UK Shared Prosperity Fund would match previous EU funding in Wales.

Energy firm taxation and regulation
In 2022, Adam Price, leader of Plaid Cymru, suggested that the power to tax and regulate energy firms should be devolved to Wales in the wake of the energy price crisis in the UK and a 54% rise in energy price cap.

Opposition
Mark Drakeford, although agreeing with the sentiment that the price cap should be lowered, believed that it was a matter of getting a UK government to "do the right thing".

Equality Act: gender identity
In February 2022, an action plan confirmed that the Welsh labour government would “seek the devolution of powers in relation to Gender Recognition and support our trans community” and suggested that the powers could be devolved “in the short term”.

Opposition
David TC Davies said he would not devolve the powers to Wales.

A UK government equality hub spokesperson has said, "there are no plans to reform the Gender Recognition Act in England or Wales".

Regional devolution
In February 2023, the Welsh Government scrapped various planned road infrastructure projects in North Wales, including a potential Third Menai Crossing. Clwyd South MS and former Welsh transport minister, Ken Skates, subsequently argued that the Welsh Government should devolve powers over road and rail infrastructure and planning, from Cardiff to North Wales.

Alternatives to devolution
In 2011 the Welsh electorate voted in a referendum to give greater legislative powers to the National Assembly for Wales. The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales is an ongoing commission established by the Welsh Government that will make recommendations about Wales’ constitutional future and the powers of the Senedd. Having their first meeting on the 25th of November 2021, Professor Laura McAllister and Dr Rowan Williams are co-chairing the commission with McAllister stating that all options are on the table, including independence. The commission has two main objectives which are consideration and development of options for reform of constitutional structures of the UK, and progressive principal options to strengthen Welsh democracy and deliver improvements for Wales. The interim findings of the commission outlined three viable options for Wales, to be explored in more depth in 2023:


 * 1) Entrenched devolution
 * 2) Federal structures
 * 3) Independence

Entrenched devolution
This is the first of the three constitutional options for Wales as proposed by the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales. This option includes:


 * Protection against unilateral changes by the UK Parliament and Government
 * More constructive intergovernmental relations
 * More stable foundation for Welsh governance in the future
 * Potential expansion of devolved powers, including justice and policing.

This option has been described as providing greater stability and requiring minimal changes for other countries of the UK.

On 5 December 2022, The UK Labour party announced that if elected, they would reform the house of lords to form a Council of the Nations and Regions. They would also devolve to the Senedd; Jobcentre plus, youth justice & probation service and access to British Regional Investment Bank. This plan have been described as almost being like a federal state.

Federalism
The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales proposes the following reform for this option:


 * The UK Parliament and Government's responsibility for the UK is separate to England
 * Reform of the House of Lords
 * Devolved financial responsibility for taxation
 * Optional devolved financial responsibility for welfare

The Welsh Labour Party manifesto supports "far-reaching federalism" with powers equal Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Independence
With independence, Wales would become a sovereign country, and would be able to apply for full membership of the United Nations and other international organisations. As an independent country, Wales would be free to choose from a variety of governance options which could include agreements with other parts of the UK, such as in a free association or a confederation.