Rakhine offensive (2023–present)

On 13 November 2023, the Arakan Army (AA), one of the dozens of ethnic resistance groups active in the civil war in Myanmar, launched a military offensive against Myanmar's military junta in Rakhine and southern Chin State. Fighting began concurrently with the launch of Operation 1027, which the Arakan Army, as a member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, also participated in. The offensive broke an informal ceasefire between the Arakan Army and the junta that had been in place for a year. During the offensive, the Arakan Army would capture several towns in northern Rakhine including Mrauk U, the capital of Mrauk-U District and the historical capital of Arakan. They would then focus on attacking Sittwe, the state capital, and Ann, the headquarters of the junta's western command. International Institute for Strategic Studies reported AA’s sweeping gains "are already enough to enable self-rule over a large portion of the Rakhine homeland and to reshape the wider balance of power in Myanmar."

Background
The Arakan Army and its civilian wing the United League of Arakan were founded in 2009 and quickly became one of Myanmar's strongest rebel groups. They gain territory in northern Rakhine and Paletwa Township by 2018 and fought with the Tatmadaw military in late 2018 after the central government entered their territory. The fighting intensified until the Arakan Army announced a unilateral ceasefire in 2020 so that the 2020 general election could be held.

After the resurgence of civil war in 2021, the Arakha Army focused more on expanding their administrative capabilities. However, over the 2022 monsoon season, the informal ceasefire reached in late 2020 between the Arakan Army (AA) and the junta broke down. With the military's attention diverted to the increasing resistance elsewhere and increasing popular support for an alliance with the NUG, the AA sought to expand its influence into southern Rakhine.

On 26 November 2022, the Arakan Army and the junta agreed to a temporary ceasefire brokered by Yōhei Sasakawa of the Nippon Foundation. Arakan Army spokespeople maintained that they agreed to the ceasefire for humanitarian reasons, as opposed to international pressure. The Arakan Army did not withdraw from fortifications held at the time of the ceasefire.

After the beginning of Operation 1027, the displays of Tatmadaw incompetence and the rapid gains made by the Three Brotherhood Alliance inspired many previously disconnected resistance groups began to work towards unity to overthrow the Tatmadaw, which came into power after a coup in 2021. The Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organisation (EAO) made up of primarily Arakanese which fights for the self-determination of the Arakan, broke the 1-year ceasefire agreed to in 2022 on 13 November 2023 by attacking Border Guard Police in Rathedaung Township.

After several months, the Arakan Army has made rapid gains throughout Rakhine and southern Chin State, capturing 8 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, alongside 9 major towns throughout the state. Despite wide support for the offensive, ethnic Rohingya have been in conflict with the Arakan Army, with many accusing the Tatmadaw of attempting to stir ethnic conflict using several aligned EAO's and protests.

Operation 1027 begins
On the morning of 13 November 2023, the Arakan Army (AA) attacked two Border Guard Police stations in Rathedaung Township, breaking the Rakhine State Ceasefire Agreement between the junta and the Arakan Army. Dong Paik camp was captured by 6:30 am. On 14 November, the junta had already abandoned around 40 outposts in Rakhine state after attacks by the Arakan Army, but few came under their immediate control. Dozens of Myanmar security officers surrendered to the Arakan Army the following day.

The following night, the Arakan Army launched an attack on Pauktaw, seizing the township police station. By the next morning, the Arakan Army had taken control of the town. The junta sent two helicopter gunships alongside naval support to fire back, including at civilian housing, with heavy machine gun fire. Pauktaw's proximity to the Rakhine state capital, Sittwe, posed a threat to the junta. Junta forces detained about 100 residents who were unable to flee, and positioned themselves to surround the town, using two navy ships to blockade the harbour.

On 14 November, the Arakan Army launched an offensive in Paletwa Township on the Chin-Rakhine border. The Arakan Army accused the Tatmadaw of using chemical weapons during the ensuing battles. On 6 December, the Arakan Army announced that they had captured a major military base in the township.

On 8 January 2024, the Arakan Army continued Operation 1027 and captured the Taung Shey Taung base and its 200 junta soldiers in Kyauktaw Township, Rakhine State. They then escalated their offensive into Paletwa Township, Chin State with the aim of capturing Paletwa, a strategic town for the Indo-Myanmar Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project On 15 January, the Arakan Army seized Paletwa and the entire township, declaring it a "military council-free area." A week later, the Arakan Army captured the town of Pauktaw in Rakhine State concluding a three-month battle.

On 17 January 2024, the Taingen camp on the Falam road to the Indian border was captured, with Chin resistance forces seizing arms and ammunition. On 20 January 2024, after more than 600 junta soldiers and refugees crossed the India–Myanmar border, the Government of India announced a plan to fence the entire border.

Spillover into Bangladesh
On 3 February 2024, as the clashes between the Arakan Army and Tatmadaw increased in Rakhine, mortar shells and several bullets reportedly landed in Bangladesh territory, which injured some local residents. Repeated bursts of gunfire and explosions were be heard across the Bangladesh–Myanmar border from Ukhia, Cox's Bazar. At least 229 Myanmar Border Guard Police (BGP) personnel entered Bangladesh through the Tumbru border point seeking refuge from AA, where the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) disarmed them and gave them shelter in Bandarban district. On 5 February 2024, a Bangladeshi woman and a Rohingya man died from a mortar shell that fell on the Ghumdum border in Bandarban, reportedly fired by Myanmar.

Fall of Mrauk U
The Arakan Army captured most remaining Tatmadaw bases in Minbya by 6 February, almost taking full control of the township. On the same day, the Arakan Army seized the Taung Pyo junta outpost along the border with Bangladesh in Maungdaw Township. The Arakan Army captured Kyauktaw the next day and continued fighting in Mrauk U and Ramree.

On February 7, the Arakan Army took control of Minbya Township after capturing the last two military battalion headquarters in the township. Colonel Min Min Tun, commander of the 11th Light Infantry Division of the Tatmadaw, was killed during a battle at the base of the 377th Light Infantry Battalion in Mrauk-U Township.

The Tatmadaw abandoned Myebon to reinforce Kyaukphyu on 9 February, leaving ammunition behind in their rush and abandoning the southern township of Mrauk-U District. The same day, the AA took the city of Mrauk U, completing their control over the township. During the battle, three Myanmar Navy landing craft were reportedly sunk. In response to the seizure of the three towns, the junta blew up bridges in Kyauktaw Township and the state capital, Sittwe.

During an evacuation attempt by the junta from Kyauktaw town during attacks by the Arakan Army on the same day, three naval landing craft were sunk. This resulted in the death of 700-900 retreating junta soldiers and their family members. According to a statement from the Arakan Army, the rebels rescued Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun, commander of the 9th Military Operations Command, and some of his soldiers from the river.

The Arakan Army announced on 30 January that it was fighting to oust the junta from the coastal city of Ramree in Rakhine State. The junta had reportedly bombarded the town from gunboats for weeks before fighting began. 8,000 of the town's residents had been displaced due to the fighting. The AA claimed that the regime forces used chemical weapons to defend the town, a claim that the junta denied.

On 15 February, the Arakan Army captured Myebon and started intensifying their assaults on Ramree. These assaults killed around 80 junta reinforcements between 24 and 26 February. On 28 February, the Arakan Army captured the final junta outpost in Minbya Township, taking full control of the township.

Continued northern offensives
On 5 March, the Arakan Army reportedly captured the town of Ponnagyun and its surrounding township. During the battle, junta warships and fighter jets shelled the town, eventually destroying the Zay Ti Pyin bridge connecting Ponnagyun to Rathedaung. The Arakan Army stated that it continued assaults on Rathedaung and Buthidaung Townships. The capture of Ponnagyun is significant as it is only 33 kilometres northeast of the regional capital, Sittwe, and allows the Arakan Army to threaten the city. Tatmadaw tactical commander Colonel Myo Min Ko Ko and Major Saw Htwe were killed in Ponnagyung.

On 12 March, after an 85-day battle, the Arakan Army captured the town of Ramree. In Maungdaw Township, AA also captured a border outpost forcing 179 junta soldiers to flee into neighboring Bangladesh. On 17 March, the Arakan Army captured the town of Rathedaung, cutting off Sittwe from northern Rakhine State. The AA claimed that the junta used forcibly conscripted Rohingya people as human shields during its unsuccessful defense of the town.

On 15 April, the Arakha Army and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) clashed in Buthidaung Township, killing 25 Rohingyas. A local reported that the Tatmadaw and ARSA fought together during the clashes. The Arakan Army announced on 18 May that it had taken complete control of Buthidaung, capturing the last junta positions in the area. The Arakan Army said that clashes continued with junta forces and armed Rohingya groups outside the town. Twelve Rohingya civilians were reportedly killed in a junta airstrike on 17 May, and that same day the Arakan Army allegedly bombed a school with drones where Rohingya civilians were sheltering, killing 18 and wounding around 200. Following Buthidaung's fall, large portions of the town and outlying villages were systematically burned to the ground. Witnesses and international organizations accused the Arakan Army of engaging in retaliatory arson against Rohingya people, ordering them out of their homes before burning them to the ground. The Arakan Army denied any involvement with the attack, blaming the fires on junta shelling during the course of the battle.

On 3 May, the Arakan Army captured the headquarters of the Border Guard Police in Maungdaw Township at Kyee Kan Pyin. The Arakan Army began launching attacks on Maungdaw town on 21 May. The next day, the AA claimed the capture of the No. 2 Border Guard Police Detachment near the entrance to the city.

Central and southern Rakhine offensives
On 24 March, the Arakan Army began an offensive on Ann Township concurrently with their offensive on Sittwe, launching attacks on Ann, the headquarters of the junta's Western Command. North of Ann, the Arakan Army launched attacks on neighbouring Ngape Township in Magway Region. Ann's location is strategically important as the link between Rakhine and Magway via the Minbu-Ann road through the Arakan Mountains and as a gateway preventing AA from attacking southern Rakhine State. On 27 March, Arakan Army forces seized a camp near Ge Laung village, Ann Township. On 2 April, the Arakan Army announced it had captured a portion of the Ann-Minbu Highway, cutting off Ann from neighboring Padein. During these offensives, on 10 April, the Arakan Army rebranded itself as the "Arakha Army" to represent all people living in Rakhine State. On 27 April, the Arakan Army captured Taw Hein Taung base in the hilltops of Ann township.

On 13 April, the Arakan Army began clashing with junta forces along the Thandwe-Taungup highway. Intense clashes broke out on 22 April around the Tha Htay hydropower plant in northern Thandwe Township, reportedly leading to the deaths of "dozens" of junta soldiers. On 25 April, the Arakan Army began clashing with junta forces near the Ngapali Beach. On 7 June, clashes broke out between the Arakan Army and junta forces north of Thandwe, with fighting inching steadily closer to the city over the following days. On 26 June, the Arakan Army seized the headquarters of the junta's Battalion 566, forcing military troops to retreat to the town's airport and hotels inside the city. The Arakan Army announced they had secured the airport on 5 July. Militia reinforcements brought by the regime from across Myanmar, as well as shelling from navy ships offshore, were unable to stop the Arakan Army's continued progress in its offensive. The Arakan Army claims to have killed over 400 troops during its push to seize the city.

On 15 June, the Arakan Army launched an offensive to seize the town of Taungup. Heavy fighting broke out around Taungup University, where a junta artillery battalion is stationed, and clashes were reported in downtown areas as well. Retaliatory junta airstrikes reportedly hit civilian areas. Shelling from junta forces also damaged parts of the university. On 18 June, the town's general administrator, as well as another town official, were arrested by the junta while trying to flee from the fighting to Yangon. On 20 June, the Arakan Army ambushed a column of junta soldiers that had been sent from central Myanmar to reinforce the town, reportedly killing over 60 regime soldiers, including a captain.

Ethnic tensions with Rohingya
Between 4 February and 6 February, the Arakan Army launched attacks on Rakhine Border Guard Police (BGP) outposts in Maungdaw Township. The Arakan Army later alleged that the Rohingya ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and Rohingya Solidarity Organisation fought alongside the Rakhine BGP, allegations they gave no evidence towards. On 6 February the Arakan Army and the RSO cooperated on a joint assault against the Arakan Rohingya Army, who had captured a BGP camp along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. 2 days later, the RSO denounced AA's accusations and the AA labeling them as "Bengalis" among other issues. Some time in March, a Rohingya man was shot in Sittwe. After the Arakan Army was blamed, it was found that the shooting was committed by the Arakan Liberation Army, working as a proxy of the junta to stir ethnic tensions.

In late February, despite the conscription law only applying to citizens, the military junta reportedly began to conscript displaced Rohingyas living in Kyaukphyu. On 6 March, in response to this junta recruitment, the AA urged Rohingya people to flee into AA-controlled areas despite the tense relations between the AA and Rohingya EAOs. In Buthidaung, ARSA was allegedly training Rohingya people for the junta. Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, stated that at least 1,000 people from the Rohingya community being taken by the military from Buthidaung, Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, and dozens have been killed while being used as human shields in Rathedaung Township. On April 15th, the Arakan Army clashed with the ARSA in Buthidaung, resulting in 25 Rohingya deaths and 3,000 fleeing. ARSA and ARA reportedly fought with the Tatmadaw, where they burnt down homes and kidnapped civilians.

Civilian attacks
Junta shelling of a crowded market in Sittwe killed 12 people and critically injured 18 on 27 February. According to RFA’s figures, 73 civilians were killed and 103 were injured between March 1 and March 18 for the junta sent airstrikes and artillery fire into communities captured by the rebel ethnic Arakan Army. In Myay Pon, junta airstrikes destroyed homes and schools; while in Mrauk-U, aerial drone attacks on March 15 and March 17 in ethnic Rakhine neighborhoods left three dead and eight injured. The UN chief António Guterres expressed "alarm" about the air attacks and called for calm.

The military accused AA of firing into Sittwe's Kathe neighborhood on 9 March, killing seven civilians. AA reportedly slaughtered military families attempting to flee Kyauktaw in Rakhine. Five Rohingya were found dead after AA arrested them, still the group denies killing the men and said it's a result of warring drug gangs.

Information warfare
A social media post in March 2024 showed the Rohingya protesting against the AA. Aung Kyaw Moe, a cabinet member of NUG, wrote in an X post that junta "is using the Rohingya as a proxy to protest against AA in Buthidang is not definitely organic." After multiple protests staged by Rohingya against the AA, some protest participants said this were forced by the junta and residents who didn't participate would be fined.

Spokesman for the UN Stéphane Dujarric said their local team sees the spreading of misinformation, disinformation and hate speech in northern Rakhine State.