Spillover of the Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

The ongoing Myanmar civil war has had a spillover into other countries, especially India and Bangladesh.

Bangladesh
The spillover of the Myanmar civil war has particularly been a cause of concern to Bangladesh. Beyond the influx of refugees from renewed violence on the border, the rise of the non-state actor Arakan Army created concerns about Rohingya repatriation.

Background
The Rohingya genocide led to around 1 million Rohingya refugees fleeing to Bangladesh. In the first week of September 2020, Bangladeshi forces reported that the Tatmadaw started amassing troops and doing unusual buildups in three different locations on the Bangladesh–Myanmar border. As a consequence, Bangladesh's foreign minister summoned Myanmar's ambassador, calling for him to desist from such activities and to work for mutually beneficial relations between the two countries. As a result, Bangladesh revealed that is ready to face any situation, deploying the 34 Border Guard Bangladesh battalion on the border with Myanmar. This battalion asked their counterparts to arrange a flag meeting but they received no response.

History
Multiple Tatmadaw artillery strikes have accidentally ended up in Bangladesh territory over the course of the war.

In August 2022, Bangladesh strongly protested territorial violations when two Myanmar Army mortar shells hit a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh and when a junta helicopter entered Bangladeshi airspace and fired a shell. Aung Kyaw Moe, the ambassador of Myanmar to Bangladesh, was summoned by the Bangladesh ministry of foreign affairs four times in 2022 due to multiple violations of Bangladesh's airspace in the Naikhongchhari border area by the Myanmar Army.

On 3 February 2024, intensifying clashes between the Arakan Army and Tatmadaw in Rakhine state led to mortar shells and bullets landing in Bangladesh, injuring civilians and prompting local villagers to flee. Bangladeshi authorities closed schools and madrasas in border villages. As tensions increased, Bangladesh strengthened the Bangladesh Police and Bangladesh Coast Guard to be stationed to resist any intrusion through the borders. Three hundred and twenty-seven Myanmar Border Guard Police personnel sought refuge in Bangladesh, where they were disarmed and sheltered by the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB). Two days later, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina instructed the Bangladesh Armed Forces and BGB to have patience regarding the situation in Myanmar. On 7 February BGB Director Mohammad Ashrafuzzaman Siddiqui recommended suspending the naval route to St. Martin's Island in Bangladesh due to the increasing border tensions, accordingly, sea travel to St. Martin's Island is indefinitely closed down by the district administration of Cox's Bazar from 10 February. On 8 February 2024, the Tatmadaw agreed to send a ship to take back the stranded BGP personnel in Bangladesh.

Saint Martin Crisis
During June 2024, Myanmar Navy vessels reportedly fired at boats traveling near St. Martin's Island. However, it soon became unclear whether the shots came from Arakha Army or the Myanmar military. Due to the firing, the island's population faces a food shortage.

India
The renewed ethnic conflict, particularly in Chin state, has fueled the displacement of many into India. On 22 September 2021, after the Battle of Thantlang, nearly 8,000 residents of Thantlang, Chin state, fled to Mizoram, India after houses were set ablaze by the junta army.

On January 10 and 12, 2023, Myanmar Air Force carried out airstrikes with one Yak-130 and two MiG-29 targeting Camp Victoria, the Chin National Army (CNA)'s headquarters, near the India-Myanmar border. Five CNA soldiers were killed, at least 10 were injured and some buildings were damaged. The air attacks violated Indian airspace and soil, according to the CNF, local Mizo organizations, and the international research and advocacy organization Fortify Rights. The Chin Human Rights Organization (CHRO) states that at least 200 Chin refugees crossed the border later the week following the airstrikes by Myanmar Army.

Later in March 2023, the Chinland Defence Force of Matupi engaged in attacks near Paletwa Township. CDF Paletwa assured that on 15 March 2023, Assam Rifles entered Paletwa township and fired gunshots. However, the Assam Rifles denied, saying its soldiers were engaged in “routine border point verification inside the Indian territory."

On 14 November 2023, the CNA and local CDF forces attacked the Myanmar Army's border guard outpost in Rikhawdar, Falam Township, a hub for border trade with India. The junta responded with air assaults using a jet fighter, to flee into Mizoram, India. A total of 43 Myanmar Army soldiers crossed the India-Myanmar border and sought refuge from the Indian police. They were handed to the Myanmar officials by the Indian authorities through the Moreh-Tamu border. Two days later, residents who had fled to India returned.

In late December 2023 and January 2024, fierce fighting in the Rakhine offensive (2023-present), 276 Myanmar army soldiers, with their arms, entered India surrendering to Indian authorities. Because of the influx of refugees and junta soldiers, the Indian government decided to fence the 1000 mi border with Myanmar,.

Impact on Manipuri conflict
Analysts cite the Myanmar civil war as one of many instigating factors for the increased ethnic violence in Manipur. Drug trafficking and the junta's use of aerial bombing and napalm has destabilized the border region. India expressed its concern to the junta about its military actions near its sensitive northeastern region in the wake of a massive exodus of refugees into India. In July 2023, there were an estimated 50,000 refugees who had fled to India. These refugees reportedly include many ex-security forces. Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah stated that the influx of Kuki people from Myanmar created insecurity amongst the Meitei people of Manipur and triggered the violence. According to ground reports, many refugees also brought arms with them and instigated drug turf wars.

While the Myanmar refugees are given familial treatment with compassion to take shelter by the state government of Mizoram, the Manipur government's view on the matter is somewhat divergent. Dominant Zo-Kuki demographic of Manipur's Churachandpur district which borders the state of Mizoram, and the dominant Mizos have strong ethnic relation with each other and with the Kukis of Myanmar. While Chief Minister Zoramthanga of Mizoram, under his governance, shows a sense of compassion towards refugees including ex-forces of Myanmar, at least some Zo-Kuki portion in Manipur are not happy with the attitude of Manipur government, under the leadership of Chief Minister N. Biren Singh, towards them who are, if not together, in the proximity of Myanmar immigrants.

Thailand
On 5 April 2024, the junta garrison in Myawaddy surrendered to the KNLA, allowing anti-junta forces to take the border town. During the capture of Myawaddy, certain junta officials fled into Thailand. The junta requested Thailand for a military flight from Mae Sot to evacuate said officials and others awaiting refuge on the border.