Talk:2005 papal conclave/Speculation about the papal conclave, 2005

Media speculation, particularly in the non-Catholic press, tended to describe the election as a contest between personalities, political ideologies or geographical regions. The Catholic Church's official position was that Cardinals sincerely believe the most important criterion for the new Pope to be holiness, and also that they would be guided by the Holy Spirit, through prayer, to make a choice which is in accordance with God's will. "People think that we are going to vote like in an election," said Óscar Andrés Rodríguez of Honduras shortly before the conclave began. "But this is something completely different. We are going to listen to the Lord and listen to the Holy Spirit."

There has been speculation since the 1990s about who the next pope would be, and names of possible candidates had been floated in the press. These were unofficially known as the papabili, an Italian word which roughly translates as able to be made pope. Some of the favorites included Francis Arinze  (Roman Curia, originally from Nigeria), Dionigi Tettamanzi  (Archbishop of Milan, Italy), Jorge Mario Bergoglio  (Archbishop of Buenos Aires, Argentina), Óscar Andrés Rodríguez(Archbishop of Tegucigalpa, Honduras), Jean-Marie Lustiger  (former Archbishop of Paris, France), and Cláudio Hummes  (Archbishop of São Paulo, Brazil).

Early speculation, before John Paul II's final illness and death, drew attention to the fact that of the five nations with the largest Catholic populations, only one, Italy, is European. Forty-six percent of the world's Catholics are in Latin America; the Philippines have more Catholics than Italy; some 120 million Catholics live in Africa. Yet 35 percent of the voting cardinals either officially represent an Italian diocese or work for the Vatican administration, the Curia. .

Analysis
The following presumptions and hypotheses are among those being put forward by current vaticanologists:


 * After the long reign of John Paul II, the cardinals may prefer the next pontificate to be brief and transitional. An older candidate, whose papacy would be expected to be shorter than a younger candidate, may find favor as a "transitional pope," giving the church time to consider the future and a chance to elect the succeeding pope relatively soon. This strategy could work in favor of a "safe" and unsurprising choice, on the premise that a bolder choice might be taken next time. Or perhaps the surprise and novelty of a pope from Africa or Latin America might be moderated and made to seem less of a departure if he were old and expected to reign for a relatively short time. In general, an older pope is seen as an acceptable compromise between the "Italian" and "Third World" factions. The cardinals will be mindful, however, of the potential for such a strategy to backfire: John XXIII, who was selected for his age as a "transitional pope", turned out to be one of the most influential popes in recent times, taking the bold and unexpected step of convening the Second Vatican Council.
 * It is thought unlikely, given the college's current composition, that the new choice will hold surprising theological opinions; all but three of the electors, after all, were appointed by John Paul II. However, many commentators believe that will be a strong push for "collegiality," for a pope who will reduce the power of the Vatican curia and delegate more freedom to individual diocese and national bishops' conferences. Hence the conventional wisdom holds that the new pope will continue the generally doctrinally conservative course of John Paul II but will be more open-minded in his views on church governance. Likewise, curial candidates may have a hard time being elected in this conclave. At present, only a quarter of the cardinal electors are curial administrators; three-fourths are pastoral cardinals, archbishops of large dioceses &mdash; a higher proportion than they have sometimes been in the past. A cardinal who has had both a curial and pastoral career, such as Francis Arinze and Ivan Dias, may be able to gather support from both groups.
 * Cardinals who are well respected and influential within the college often play the role of “kingmaker” or "grand elector", intriguing on behalf of their candidate of choice. Franz König famously played the role of kingmaker in the conclave that elected John Paul II. In the 2005 conclave, Cardinals Julián Herranz, Carlo Maria Martini, Joseph Ratzinger, Giovanni Re, Camillo Ruini, and Angelo Sodano are seen as the likely kingmakers. Although some of these cardinals are also mentioned as papabili, the roles of kingmaker and candidate are traditionally mutually exclusive. For example, in the conclave of August 1978, Giovanni Benelli, widely considered papabile, effectively removed himself from consideration in order to secure the election of his preferred candidate, Albino Luciani. Benelli was therefore kingmaker to John Paul I. Ratzinger, Dean of the College of Cardinals and for years one of John Paul II's closest associates, was at first considered too old and controversial to be a leading candidate and assumed instead to be the conclave's most influential "grand elector"; but in recent days much media speculation has put him back in the running as a front-runner papabile.
 * Italian cardinals may wish to see the election of another Italian pope and so may rally around one unified Italian choice, rather than as in 1978 split into rival factions, allowing the selection of a non-Italian. (Media reports suggest that Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan may well be the unified Italian candidate.) One should keep in mind how historically rare non-Italian popes are; the last non-Italian to ascend to the position before John Paul II was Pope Adrian VI almost 500 years ago (1522–1523). However, there is still a great deal of division between cardinals from north Italy and cardinals from south Italy; the northerners prefer Giovanni Battista Re of Brescia, while the southerners want Crescenzio Sepe of Grado, who organized the Great Jubilee in 2000.
 * The selection of a pope from the United States is, as always, seen as unlikely, since a pope hailing from the world's primary power might be seen to compromise the Vatican's independence. (Many observers, indeed, warn that American pope might be actively mistrusted in some parts of the world, where there would be suspicion that the CIA had rigged his election or that Wall Street had bought it.)
 * Although Jean-Marie Lustiger, the former Archbishop of Paris, has often been named as one of the papabile, a few commentators also doubt that a pope would be chosen from France, which is at the heart of the current doubts and angst about Catholicism's place in Western Europe &mdash; a country with huge numbers of nominal Catholics who are in practice disenchanted with the church's conservative bent and leading increasingly secular lives. In addition, Lustiger, born a Jew, converted to Catholicism. On the one hand, some Jews see converts unfavorably, and this choice may thus play against the improved relationships between the Catholic Church and Jews that John Paul II promoted; on the other hand, Lustiger being of Jewish origin and being a strong supporter of Israel may enhance these relations. Furthermore, a pope perceived to be pro-Israeli may damage the image of neutrality of the Catholic Church in countries where the population is majority anti-Israeli, especially those where Christians are a minority.
 * A Latin American pope is a strong possibility, and would be the first in history. A likewise historical African or Asian pope is not thought likely from this conclave, unless perhaps Francis Arinze, who has spent his recent career not in Africa but in Italy with the curia, is chosen.
 * Different groups within the church are affiliated with certain cardinals, who are likely to consider the interests of these groups as they cast their votes. Juan Luis Cipriani Thorne of Lima is a member of Opus Dei; Miloslav Vlk of Prague is a known promoter of the Focolare Movement. Norberto Rivera Carrera is known to be close to the Legionaries of Christ, Angelo Scola was formerly an adherent of Comunione e Liberazione, and Dionigi Tettamanzi is reportedly a supporter of both Opus Dei and the more liberal Community of Sant'Egidio. Francisco Javier Errázuriz Ossa of Santiago de Chile has long been affiliated with the Schoenstatt Movement. Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, a Jesuit priest, would be the first Jesuit pope in papal history if selected.
 * Although, after the vast worldwide popularity of the media-savvy and globe-trotting John Paul II, it is thought likely that the cardinals will opt for somebody somewhat quieter, languages may still be an important consideration. Italian, the language of the Vatican, is an essential; English, rapidly becoming a worldwide lingua franca, and Spanish, the language of most Latin American Catholics, are also important. Otherwise considered a front-runner, Dionigi Tettamanzi may suffer in this respect.
 * In one of the more controversial changes to the papal election process, if there is no clear winner after a certain number of votes, its possible for someone to win with a majority instead of a two-thirds vote. This has caused some to fear of the possibility of a polarized election where the winner does not appear to have the mandate of a large number of cardinals. At this time this outcome is generally not foreseen for this conclave.

Historical considerations

 * The newly elected pope often contrasts dramatically with his predecessor, a tendency expressed by the Italian axiom "After a fat pope, a lean pope." Indeed, every twentieth-century Pope was in some notable respect very different from the Pope who came before him. For example, the controversial one-time populist turned conservative, long-lived Pope Pius IX (1846–1878) was succeeded by the aristocratic diplomatic Pope Leo XIII (1878–1903). Nor does the fact that 113 of the 115 cardinal-electors who will participate in the 2005 conclave were appointed by John Paul II mean that a new pope will be similar to John Paul. Though vaticanologists regard the current College of Cardinals as conservative, past history (the 1878, 1903 and 1958 conclaves) does not support the theory that a college of cardinals, even if picked by a pope clearly identified as conservative or liberal, and presumed to share his theological outlook, will necessarily vote for someone fitting the same category. Past cardinals have often voted for someone radically different to the pope who appointed them: few expected Angelo Roncalli to be chosen by a conclave many of whose cardinal-electors had been chosen by Pope Pius XII. From these examples, it would appear that a cardinal who shares John Paul II's views or leadership style, or who is closely associated with his papacy, is less likely to be elected. History would suggest the selection of someone less theological and charismatic, a more administrative pope, given that John Paul II was noted more for being a thinker and world leader than an administrator.
 * According to the old saying, "He who enters the conclave as pope leaves it as cardinal." A man who enters the conclave certain of victory in the election is often not the man finally selected to be pope. In 1978, Sergio Pignedoli, who was seen as a strong contender for the papacy, was reported to have gone on a crash diet to fit the papal cassock. Instead Albino Luciani, who was so convinced that he would not be elected that he never got his hair cut (as his official portrait showed) and whose feet were so swollen he could not wear new shoes bought for him by his family, was elected.
 * Cardinals are not restricted to electing a pope from among themselves. In theory any baptized Roman Catholic male, and certainly any member of its clergy, is eligible for election. While the odds on that are slim (the last man not already a cardinal at the time of his election was Pope Urban VI, who served from 1378 to 1389), Giovanni Montini (later Pope Paul VI) is rumored to have received some votes in the 1958 conclave, even though at that stage he was still only Archbishop of Milan, having been denied the expected red hat by Pope Pius XII. It is possible that some archbishop who cardinals believe should have been appointed to the College of Cardinals but who may have been overlooked by John Paul II, possibly because the late pope was too ill at the end to hold another consistory to appoint new cardinals, might be chosen. Noted vaticanologist John Allen of the National Catholic Reporter has speculated that Italian Archbishop Angelo Comastri is a non-cardinal who could receive votes in the 2005 conclave.
 * The exclusion of cardinals over the age of eighty from participating in the conclave as electors is a relatively recent development. Cardinal-electors may always elect one of the cardinals who cannot vote because they are over eighty years of age. The likeliest reason for such a choice would be inability to agree on a younger candidate. Also, a radical step like an African or Latin American pope might be tempered by attempting to ensure that the new pontificate would be relatively short, by choosing one of the older such cardinals, such as the widely respected former Dean, Bernardin Gantin.
 * Only three of the current voting cardinals (William Wakefield Baum, Joseph Ratzinger and Jaime Sin) participated in the last conclaves in 1978. Cardinal Sin is absent from this conclave.

Dioceses that produced popes in the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries
Eugenio Cardinal Pacelli, serving in the Roman Curia, was incardinated in the Diocese of Rome, as was Bartolomeo Alberto Mauro Cappellari. Annibale della Genga was cardinal vicar of Rome when elected and had been private secretary to both Pius VI and Pius VII.
 * Venice, Italy: 3 (Pope Pius X, Pope John XXIII, Pope John Paul I)
 * Rome, Italy: 3 (Pope Leo XII, Pope Gregory XVI, Pope Pius XII)
 * Milan, Italy: 2 (Pope Pius XI, Pope Paul VI)
 * Imola, Italy: 2 (Pope Pius VII, Pope Pius IX)
 * Frascati, Italy: 1 (Pope Pius VIII)
 * Perugia, Italy: 1 (Pope Leo XIII)
 * Bologna, Italy: 1 (Pope Benedict XV)
 * Kraków, Poland: 1 (Pope John Paul II)
 * Munich, Germany: 1 (Pope Benedict XVI)

Previous experience of 19th, 20th and 21st century Popes

 * Archbishop, past curial experience: 5 (Leo XIII, Benedict XV, Pius XI, John XXIII, Paul VI)
 * Archbishop, no curial experience: 5 (Pius VII, Pius IX, Pius X, John Paul I, John Paul II)
 * Curial cardinal, no pastoral experience: 3 (Leo XII, Gregory XVI, Pius XII)
 * Curial cardinal, past pastoral experience: 2 (Pius VIII, Benedict XVI)