Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/April

Weeks 1 and 2
Springtime is upon us! However, the tropics are still recovering and have a little ways to go before they become favorable for tropical development. While a pre-season storm is definitely realistic, it is a bit too soon right now. Eyes move inland to Tornado Alley for the most part. Stranger things have happened though! CrazyC83 03:42, 1 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Pretty big cooling of the SSTs in the Caribbean and the GoM over the past few days: . -- RattleMan 15:23, 1 April 2006 (UTC)


 * That is quite drastic! The first shots are very out of line with this time of year...capable of tropical development (although the shear is too great) - but not now! CrazyC83 00:04, 2 April 2006 (UTC)


 * I told you all that the cold water upwelling off of the Cape Verde Islands would have an effect, and it is. The upwelling is continuing, and there is more erosion is the SSTs off towards Africa.  So over time the SSTs for the Atlantic basin, including the Carribean and the Gulf, will fall even more.  Even so, this does not look like a very big or a very cold upwelling, and I am looking for it to subside after a few months.  However, I no longer expect more that 20 storms this year.  My sense of things is the Atlantic will still be quite warm this year, but very high SSTs that I anticipated earlier will not occur.  --EMS | Talk 02:08, 2 April 2006 (UTC)

Week 3
Technically it's the third week of April since the week one article started on the first. Now, I've been looking at the shear and the SST's and the shear is really high still (good news there, no incredibly unbelievable early season yet). SST's in the 70-80 range for the normally active areas in hurricane season. Still the ocean remains stagnant. - Bladeswin 02:21, 11 April 2006 (UTC)

Any chance of this turning into anything? ~Silence Knight


 * I looked at it earlier (when there was something to see at that URL). I assume that you were refering to the mid-to-upper level disturbance in the central Bahamas.  That has now dissipated, and never was a tenable candidate for tropical development.  I look for stronger, more concentrated thunderstorms for that.  Had it developed more, one of us may have cited it as a AoI (area of interest).  Overall, the Carribean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain marginally favorably for tropical cyclone formation even now, but the shear is too great at this time.  However, as the Spring progresses, the shear should begin to relax, and as the SSTs begin to rise so do the chances of tropical cyclones developing.  The cold water upwelling that had me worried earlier seems to already have subsided, so the pieces are in place for another interesting hurricane season, once it gets started. --EMS | Talk 03:59, 14 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The Loop Current has been in the 80s lately, but the shear is far too much for development. However, I think there is a good chance we will see something in May, and the early season will be quite active I think. I'd be surprised if we make it to August 1 without a major hurricane. CrazyC83 17:53, 14 April 2006 (UTC)


 * I can agree with that assessment. Nornmally the early season in inhibited by the lack of warm enough water.  That was not the case last year, and it seems that the same will apply this year. --EMS | Talk 01:59, 15 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Agreed. Additionally, shear has dropped off sharply during early April. By early May, SSTs should be well over 80 in most of the Caribbean and the Loop Current, making a pre-season storm or two extremely likely. — Cuivi é  nen , Saturday, 15 April 2006 @ 21:16 (UTC)


 * I am a little confused. You seem to be talking about high temperatures in most of the Gulf/Carribean. seems to indicate temperatures below the average for 1971 to 2000 in about three quarters of the Gulf and all of the areas around Cuba. From that map, I would have thought you would be talking about Cape Verde hurricanes. Can anyone point me towards some explanation, thanks crandles 15:37, 16 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The SSTs are high for this time of year. Normally the SSTs cannot support cyclogenesis now, but this year they can.  As you noted, the SSTs are still below the year-round average, but they should be well below that average at this time.  Because of this, I expect SSTs well above average in the July-October time frame, and enhanced cyclogenesis to go long with it.  As for the above prediction of pre-season storms, we will see.  The chances will be enhanced, but it will be the difference between a very low chance and a kind-of-low chance.  The real "fun" will begin in June or ealy July when the storms should begin to pop up one after the other. --EMS | Talk 20:46, 16 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Ahh. I was right about me being confused. I thought that anomaly map was comparing similar times of year. Since it doesn't, it doesn't seem very useful. Any know of a more useful anomaly map which does compare equivalent times of year? Thanks again crandles 21:27, 16 April 2006 (UTC)


 * I now think that I wrote too soon. I finally realized that you had a link there.  I go by a straight SST map from U. Wisc.  That link of yours probably is anomaly for the time of year.  It is consistent with what I have been seeing:  The Carribean is  warm for this time of year.  As for the Gulf:  There was a cold water upwelling off of the Cape Verde Islands recently, and coldest part of that pulse just went through the Carribean and is now cooling the Gulf of Mexico.  A week ago, the SSTs where 2° warmer than they are now, and the change that I am seeing in the SSTs for the Gulf are a little surprising, but I should have guessed that it would be happening now.  Don't worry:  The SSTs in the Gulf will rebound.  I am still wondering what the upshot of the cold water upwelling will be.  It does not seem to be especially strong and may be subsiding, but if it persists it will take the edge off of the 2006 season. --EMS | Talk 02:15, 17 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It should also be noted that there is something of a warm-water upwelling occurring near the Cape Verde Islands currently. Also, low temperatures near the US coast may not mean much if a storm system has recently passed through, cooling off the surface with rain (particularly in that little cold spot on the South Carolina and Georgia coast). — Cuivi é  nen  , Tuesday, 18 April 2006 @ 03:29 UTC 


 * I see the warm water to the south of the Cape Verde Islands, but I also see the cold water upwelling to the west of those islands. At this time, I think that we need to wait and see what August brings. --EMS | Talk 04:35, 20 April 2006 (UTC)

I hope that you all have learned from last season that very high shear and SSTs don't necessarily mean all is clear, a la Hurricane Epsilon. -- tomf688 {talk} 22:19, 15 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Well, at the moment the shear is still there, but a forecast I saw apparently has the shear reducing a tad in the central Atlantic. SST's I'm unsure as compared to normal or even to last year.  - Bladeswin 21:47, 17 April 2006 (UTC)

Week 4
You can now see that the SST'S are warming up now.... Especially that warm spot near Jamaica that is spreading fast, olny 40 days till hurricane season!!!!! --HurricaneRo 00:48, 22 April 2006 (UTC)

Am I reading this correctly, that as of 4/29, the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Stream are already capable of sustaining a major hurricane, all the way to landfall in some areas? That's chilling. I can't find any historical data on that website, and I'm wondering what time of year that the Atlantic is supposed to become able to do such a thing. PolitiCalypso 04:46, 30 April 2006 (UTC)


 * That almost certainly doesn't take things like shear into account (and assumes all the conditions other than temperature to be perfect for the "maximum potential"). --AySz88 ^ -  ^  06:11, 30 April 2006 (UTC)

AoI:04W4A: Central Atlantic
Im detecting an two areas of rotation at the end of a cold front in the central Atlantic. see here I will give it a 15% chance of becoming anything. Storm05 15:31, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Cutoff lows. One will probably absorb the other, but I seriously doubt anything will develop from this. Shear is just too high and there isn't even any convection associated with the circulations. --Coredesat 18:14, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Agreed, although of the three areas detected, this is the most likely to develop. It does have some similarities to 2003's Ana before it formed. I'd give it a 20% chance of development. CrazyC83 23:01, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * I don't see anything coming form this one at all...I barely noticed the circulation. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 23:11, 21 April 2006 (UTC)

AoI:04W4B: Gulf of Mexico
Ive detected a BIG blow up of thunderstorms close to the Gulf of Mexico, dont know if this cluster will stay over land or move over the gulf of mexico and become something. Heres the link. Storm05 15:38, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * This is the tail end of a front. It's not a low pressure area or anything. In fact, the storms over the Gulf of Mexico are actually dissipating. Shouldn't be an AoI. --Coredesat 18:10, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Agreed. This is land-based from the thunderstorms that had hit the South over this past week. CrazyC83 23:01, 21 April 2006 (UTC)

It might be regenerating!

...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E AND NOW LIES N TO S OVER FLORIDA ALONG 82W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N93W 26N96W TO AN MID TO UPPER CYCLONE OVER GUATEMALA AT 17N90W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW 1007 MB NEAR 19N90W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS IS NEAR 32N95W WITH A COLD TRAILING W ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WITH ITS DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW FANNING OUT OVER THE EXTREME N CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A THIN BAND OF MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION THAT FLARED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE CYCLONE...IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 24.5N92W 29N88W.

I wonder if that could develop into something? CrazyC83 03:30, 26 April 2006 (UTC)


 * And the associated satellite pictures: -- RattleMan 03:46, 26 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Do TSs or 'canes ever form from stuff like this? any examples?--JJ


 * Again, no chance. Shear is still far too high (60-80 kt), and half of this blob is over land. --Coredesat 05:04, 27 April 2006 (UTC)

AoI:04W4C: Northwestern Atlantic
Once again I spotted another storm, a powerful cyclonic storm near Atlantic Canada and its moving to the northeast. It appears to me to have an eye like structure but due to the quality of the satallite loop I cant exacatly justify it to be a potential storm. Youll be the judge. Storm05 15:38, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Waaaay too far north, and too much shear anyway. This shouldn't even be an AoI. --Coredesat 18:08, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * It's a good looking storm, but the water temperatures there are only about 10-12°C (in the 50s°F)!!! That's like a September tropical cyclone forming off the coast of southern Greenland!!! CrazyC83 23:03, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * It looks similar to the one cycling over the central US/Canada. Wishful thinking, or not-so-wishful thinking depending on your POV. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 23:07, 21 April 2006 (UTC)
 * That one over Minnesota has been giving me funny weather for the last two days. Rain, sun, rain, sun, rain, sun, hail. Fun. :P --Patteroast 23:28, 21 April 2006 (UTC)

AoI:04W4D: African Coast
Any chance of this developing? Last Frame as of 16:18, 22 April 2006 (UTC). - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 16:18, 22 April 2006 (UTC)
 * I doubt it. Icelandic Hurricane #12 20:10, 22 April 2006 (UTC)
 * On its way out. Barely could have been warm-core and subtropical for a while if that analysis is to be believed.  --AySz88 ^  -  ^  21:13, 22 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Those images are for what's off Spain... The one I was referring to has since become a mess off the African Coast. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 22:07, 22 April 2006 (UTC)

Not that I can see. We're still a long way from Cape Verde taking hold... CrazyC83 21:47, 25 April 2006 (UTC)

Who officially starts AoIs? If they are not declared by whoever that is, these do not deserve the official title and are speculation, which shouldn't be listed as AoIs.--Nilfanion 23:32, 25 April 2006 (UTC)


 * As far as I know, it's just a cute Wikipedia thing. --AySz88 ^ -  ^  23:43, 25 April 2006 (UTC)


 * AySz is right, it's just a Wikipedia thing. Storm05 created/declared AoIs A, B and C, and Bladeswin did D. As it gets closer to June 1st, we'll probably see more of these, and they may just develop. Incase one doesn't know what an AoI is, it's an "Area of Interest", caught by our own eyes as something that may develop. Storm05's are a bit over the top but Bladeswin's is understandable. -- RattleMan 01:39, 26 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Thanks RattleMan. And no, there's no set method for AoI's.  As the season gets closer to it's start and beyond, more and more AoI's will become Invests, then TD's, then TS's, then 'Canes. Yay for hurricanes... - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 02:33, 26 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Thanks for clearing that up. Between the official-looking designations and Storm05 being overly keen (those "subtropical storms" on 2005 reinforce that), its small wonder I got a little confused.--Nilfanion 10:36, 26 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Rather than make a new AoI, the shear is negligable where a large quantity of thunderstorms are coming off the coast. One huge bunch in particular is looking large and pretty...but I don't think it'll stay that way.  Any comments on this? - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 22:33, 26 April 2006 (UTC)

AoI:04W4E: Offshore Eastern U.S
I have spotted this off the East coast of the United States. Any chance of this becoming anything? Storm05 12:23, 28 April 2006 (UTC)


 * More like an offshore Nor'Easter with heavy rain... CrazyC83 16:31, 28 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Heres a better view of the storm. Storm05 16:49, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
NRL it is an invest. --Nilfanion 18:47, 28 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Might it be a mistake? I see nothing, not even clouds. — Cuivi é  nen  , Friday, 28 April 2006 @ 18:51 UTC 
 * Yea that seems very odd, perhaps its the blob of cloud visible in the extreme east of some of the images?--Nilfanion 18:55, 28 April 2006 (UTC)
 * I see what looks like a cold front (note: link is dynamic). Tito xd (?!? - help us) 19:03, 28 April 2006 (UTC)
 * I think the Invest is that swirl of cloud to the west of the front (SE of S Carolina).--Nilfanion 19:13, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

I disagree in calling it an invest, after all I see little chance of tropical development - but stranger things have happened. Anyway, welcome to the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season!!! When was the first invest of 2005 declared?

My estimated chance of this becoming Alberto: 2%. CrazyC83 19:04, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

The only current storms on the NRL backup are 02B.MALA and 91S.INVEST. No 90L. Someone on Geo-earth says: "I'm not quite sure why NRL would take the time to make this an invest. 90L will not develop into a tropical cyclone and here's why: There is a strong upper level trough diving out of the Northeast USA that will phase with the surface low and associated upper low within 36 hours." And they're right - I guess the NRL gave up on 90L. --Golbez 19:23, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

91L.INVEST (redesignation)
90L has been taken off and replaced with 91L. (note: 91L is what I referred to above) I'd find this a lot more plausible if today was April 1.--Nilfanion 19:27, 28 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Reason for the change: 90L was used for the South Atlantic invest in February. CrazyC83 19:36, 28 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Still nothing on the NRL backup, which I guess is why I should stop using the NRL backup. :V --Golbez 19:49, 28 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It's still spinning out there... I don't think it'll make itself any bigger, but the shear's looking like it'll be low enough. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 19:53, 28 April 2006 (UTC)


 * This one makes more sense. It could be a subtropical system already. — Cuivi é  nen  , Friday, 28 April 2006 @ 20:15 UTC 


 * You think so? Anyway it sure doesn't feel like April 28 when I have to keep an eye on both the tropics and the heartland... CrazyC83 01:49, 29 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It looked better a few hours ago. Now it's nearly gone. — Cuivi é  nen  , Saturday, 29 April 2006 @ 02:47 UTC 


 * How shocking! I saw this one at school (90L) right after it became an invest. -- RattleMan 21:57, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WESTERN SW N ATLC IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH MARKS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 32N70W TO 20N74W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS EASTWARD TO 60W. DIFFLUENCE INDICATED EAST OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WELL EAST OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A GALE CENTER NEAR 32N70W 1007 MB THROUGH 27N70W TO EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED. THIS CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE AND IS FOUND GENERALLY WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 60W-67W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 23N-26N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE GALE CENTER ARE PRESENT WEST OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 23N.

That means it definitely has tropical storm-force winds associated with it. If by some miracle it develops, it would instantly be Tropical Storm Alberto. Chance of becoming such tonight now IMO: 10%. CrazyC83 01:51, 29 April 2006 (UTC)


 * I fail to spot any real centre of circulation as of that image... not at 31N 70W, at least. Seems to my untrained eye that it may be getting absorbed into the bigger front. NSL E (T+C) at 04:01 UTC (2006-04-29)

Of note, now the backup NRL has 91L listed. -- RattleMan 04:23, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

-I've been watching this for a few days, and I finally believe it. Just take a look at the latest GFS model run: (Java loop, may take a while)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

I give it an 80% chance. Just compare it to Ana in 2003: (Java loop, may take a while) http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?region=atl_sat&yy=2003&mm=04&dd=19&hh=00&loop=yes2x2 Winter123 04:28, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

This is definitely intresting. However, there is no center to this storm unless there is something I'm missing. TD1 at best (or worst depending on how you look at it.) Fableheroesguild 04:51, 29 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Just wait 2 days, and you may want to reconsider...


 * or not. But based on the info I've seen, there is a good possiblilty, definitely more than 50% chance. --Winter123 04:57, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

Like I said, this will definitely be intresting to watch. Fableheroesguild 05:21, 29 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Gah, none of the radar loops are working for me. I completely remove hurricanes from my mind over winter and the one time I decide to check the talk page and there's something of interest. bob rulz 06:27, 29 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It's not winter anymore. You have to remember that "Hurricane season" is only a month away. It's looking better each time I look at it. It apears to be wrapping together. --Winter123 17:49, 29 April 2006 (UTC)


 * That's why I decided to check this page again, plus I actually have time on my hands. bob rulz 10:41, 30 April 2006 (UTC)


 * There still isn't much convection to speak of. It's also moving eastward over cooler waters. I really doubt this will develop into even a subtropical system. --Coredesat 01:45, 30 April 2006 (UTC)

The surface low has formed...

"A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N67W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N67W TO 14N66W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W JUST EAST OF BERMUDA...TO 25N67W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 21N75W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED NEAR 31N69W AT 29/1800 UTC...WITH A TROUGH TRAILING THE LOW TO 30N69W 28N69W 27N71W AND CURVING TO 29N73W. " --Winter123 04:02, 30 April 2006 (UTC)

I looked at some new images; there aren't many clouds in the circulation, but the convection is becoming more noticable. The image sorta looks like TS Lee from last year. Icelandic Hurricane #12 16:03, 30 April 2006 (UTC)


 * From the latest model loop, it looks as if it will redevelop just off the coast of New England in 2-3 days, and strengthen then, rather than now.


 * And it now definitely has a well-defined surface low!
 * Full view:
 * If the convection can start to wrap around, It could probably be alberto! ;-) -Winter123 19:51, 30 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Did anyone hear the rumor about this Invest being a test? I heard that on 2 different sites however, they were message boards. The funny thing is, it's looking better today then ever yet if this was a test, it could form into something! That would be funny. 216.110.254.167 20:31, 30 April 2006 (UTC)

No way this one's a test. 90L might have been, but this sure isn't. -Winter123 21:09, 30 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Doubtful it's a test. First off there's the varied resources watching the Invest.  FSU's studying it, the Navy site's watching it, we're watching it.  There's obviously something out there as it's visible on many satellite and infrared images.  This is not a test of the emergency broadcasting system. Better to watch than predict formation though... It'd peak my interest if it even got to Depression level, let alone Alberto. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 21:30, 30 April 2006 (UTC)

The Test: NHC accidently sent through a mail system a test hurricane. The test was that Albero had formed in the middle of July. The NHC did not mean to send it out to too many people, but they did anyway. A few people reported it (see Jeff Master's forum) and then they realized the date and the goof up. This 91 is not a test, it's real. SargeAbernathy 00:00, 1 May 2006 (UTC)


 * GOES has new shots up every 5-10 minutes now: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html . --AySz88 ^ -  ^  00:25, 1 May 2006 (UTC)


 * Wow, that took some skill to post at 00:00, Sarge! ;P -Winter123 00:39, 1 May 2006 (UTC)

Right now, it looks like it would be called Subtropic Depression 1 rather than Alberto. Jake52


 * It doesn't look like it's quite worthy of depression status... yet. Nice Sattelite loop, BTW. -Winter123 01:12, 1 May 2006 (UTC)


 * Someone said above that it has tropical storm-force winds. They just haven't declared it subtropical. — Cuivi é  nen  , Monday, 1 May 2006 @ 01:24 UTC 


 * It's an extratropical gale center. Tropical storm force winds do fall in the category of gale force winds (unless its winds are faster than 54 MPH, but I don't see how). --Coredesat 04:12, 1 May 2006 (UTC)


 * Lots of little flare-ups on Water Vapor - close to diurnal maximum? - but there's too much dry air to its west and northwest near the center.... I doubt that's good for development. --AySz88 ^  -  ^  02:26, 1 May 2006 (UTC)


 * That email thing from the NHC was a mistake and has nothing to do with this Invest. However, I have heard from 2 Internet Message Boards that this current invest is a test. I have not found proof of this being a test so I'm not sure. I'm reading the replys from weather boards and they are laughing at people talking about this Invest at all because they believe it's a test! I doubt a test would stay up this long though. I'm giving this system a 40% chance of turning into a TD. 216.110.254.167 04:24, 1 May 2006 (UTC)


 * I really doubt this was a test, because earlier today the models were showing that it could dip into warm core territory, but now it doesn't look like it will. --AySz88 ^ -  ^  04:34, 1 May 2006 (UTC)

Gone. --Coredesat 13:33, 1 May 2006 (UTC)


 * The invest may be gone, but the storm is definitely not. It's still sitting there, spinning. I think the worst is yet to come from this storm, as it is projected to intensify once it redevelops off the NE coast. By this time tomorrow, we'll be able to tell.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml


 * Regardless, does anyone have a Bermuda radar? That would be interesting- now, as this will be going right over it, and throughout the year, as chances are at least one will pass near Bermuda. -Winter123 18:59, 1 May 2006 (UTC)