Talk:2009 swine flu pandemic timeline/Archive 1

Sections other than the Timeline Section
I think the Confirmed and Suspected cases just duplicates the table in the main article and is harder to keep updated. I like the idea of the timeline in the first section and would like to expand this to include all the significant events, but would like to delete the rest of the article. -- Pontificalibus (talk) 16:34, 28 April 2009 (UTC)


 * Yes the table do the things better, but the timeline is a good idea to illustrate the tendency of the influenza, too. -- Grochim (talk) 20:16, 28 April 2009 (UTC)
 * I agree that the non-timeline sections should be integrated into the timeline, then removed. There's no sense in duplicating 2009 swine flu outbreak by country here. Calliopejen1 (talk) 14:25, 29 April 2009 (UTC)
 * Agree, no sense in duplicating the info on that page. Janka —Preceding unsigned comment added by 194.29.196.160 (talk) 16:31, 30 April 2009 (UTC)
 * I think so, it is difficult to edit the confrim sections, thus there will be not latest. -- ChiHang-c (talk) 16:34, 28 April 2009 (UTC)

graph
this might be useful: File:Swine-flu-infection-graph.png

76.66.202.139 (talk) 12:53, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

Google's Flu Trends might be worth mentioning, a predictive source for a graph. Cite from Nature on the Google site Nils Peterson (talk) 03:27, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

Map
There's a residual older map: File:H1N1 map noexclave2.svg 76.66.202.139 (talk) 13:03, 29 April 2009 (UTC)


 * The problem with this map is that it seems to be outdated as soon as it is posted. What can we do? BFritzen (talk) 17:45, 29 April 2009 (UTC)


 * But that's the point, this is a timeline article, so it can be used as a specific point in time. 76.66.202.139 (talk)

Apparently an older version of it exists: File:H1N1 map noexclave.svg 76.66.202.139 (talk) 09:06, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

There's another residual older map: File:H1N1 map.png. 76.66.202.139 (talk) 04:57, 30 April 2009 (UTC)

And another residual map: File:H1N1 outbreak.svg 76.66.202.139 (talk) 09:11, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

Yet another residual map: File:H1N1 map-2009-01-05.svg 76.66.202.139 (talk) 07:23, 14 May 2009 (UTC)

Maps
This page has a couple maps, the heat map seems to be updating, which may keep it current, at the cost of not showing the progression of a time line http://www.liveside.net/main/archive/2009/04/29/visualizing-swine-flu-on-virtual-earth.aspx  Nils Peterson (talk) 03:29, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

Patient Zero
Edgar Hernandez, 5yo boy, contracted from Smithfield Farms (Smithfield Foods) pigfarm in Veracruz, Mexico (state), according to CNN, Sanjay Gupta. (aired 9am EDT 29 April 2009 CE) 76.66.202.139 (talk) 13:07, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

As far as I know the young boy got ill on 2nd April (check http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-fg-mexico-flu28-2009apr28,0,1701782.story. Therfore, "Patient Zero" (so far) must be the two children from California, who fell ill at the end of March. The flu in March in Mexico was a normal flu, except of that of the one boy. Please correct the timeline (I don' tknow how to do it. It is my first time that I take part in Wikipedia.) --201.153.40.28 (talk) 14:31, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

Someone posted in the discussion area of the main article some links where it is said that an earlier case was found in September 2008 in Texas. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2009_swine_flu_outbreak#Patient_zero_2 Here I copy the content (I hope this is fine): The first evidence of swine flu transmission was reported in September in the US state of Texas, involving a young boy who worked with pigs, said Laurie Garrett at the Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/publication/19245/global_health_crisis.html?breadcrumb=%2Fregion%2Frecent http://eyugoslavia.com/general/28/obama-swine-flu-outbreak-cause-for-concern-not-alarm-227029/ http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2009/04/28/index.php?section=mundo&article=029n1mun http://www.elsemanario.com.mx/news/news_display.php?story_id=19308 —Preceding unsigned comment added by Lmgg170 (talk • contribs) 16:36, 29 April 2009 (UTC) Please update!--201.153.40.28 (talk) 17:43, 29 April 2009 (UTC)
 * There is, I think, no confirmation that this swine flu in September was the same as the current virus. For La Gloria, Mexico, the problem is that apparently only one sample was tested for the new swine flu (sample shipped to the U.S. after the CDC recognized the new virus) The other cases were not rechecked and exhumations of the dead victims have been ruled out. Rmhermen (talk) 21:46, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

Please check the section "Initial outbreaks" of the main article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak#Initial_outbreaks (it reflects in a very neutral way the so-far known facts) and update the timeline! For confirmation of the events, check the references, please.--201.153.40.28 (talk) 22:27, 30 April 2009 (UTC)

Mysterious respiratory illness?
Why the normal flu is called "mysterious"? Are there any references that underline this claim? As far as I understood it was a normal flu, and only one boy, Edgar Hernández Hernández, was infected with the new virus. Please remove "mysterious" and remove the boy as the first victim (for that check the discussion on "Patient Zero" please). --201.153.40.28 (talk) 18:34, 29 April 2009 (UTC)

Why no-one reacts to this? The word "mysterious" is really bugging me.--201.153.17.190 (talk) 14:45, 5 May 2009 (UTC)

I removed the word because nobody wanted to do so. The article only mentions the "respiratory illness", nothing "mysterious". Please stick to the facts. In addition, 60% of the town's population starts to fall ill from a respiratory illness IN MID-MARCH, not in February!! There are many mistakes. Please correct them.--201.153.17.190 (talk) 16:47, 5 May 2009 (UTC)

World Health Organization Flag Icon?
I've sent a call out for a flag icon for the WHO to be created. kencf0618 (talk) 02:53, 30 April 2009 (UTC)


 * A flag exists... you could just dummy up the icon with it. File:Flag of WHO.svg 76.66.202.139 (talk) 05:13, 30 April 2009 (UTC)


 * Flag of WHO.svg I faked it up as: Flag of WHO.svg 76.66.202.139 (talk) 05:23, 30 April 2009 (UTC)


 * Many thanks! The article looks much better now, and although you can't quite make out the caduceus, you can click on it.  kencf0618 (talk) 06:39, 30 April 2009 (UTC)


 * Looks like your request went through
 * WHO  WHO
 * World Health Organization  World Health Organization
 * 76.66.202.139 (talk) 07:13, 30 April 2009 (UTC)
 * World Health Organization  World Health Organization
 * 76.66.202.139 (talk) 07:13, 30 April 2009 (UTC)

Six WHO Regions
http://www.who.int/about/regions/en/index.html

I have a notion to fold the national figures into their respective WHO Regions -the virus is in four of the six as of this writing- but it's late and I'm going to call it a night. kencf0618 (talk) 06:20, 1 May 2009 (UTC)


 * On May 16 the case in Hyderabard, India is listed as the first case in WHO's South East Asia Region, but the first case in this region was reported on May 12 in Thailand. Can someone correct this please, as this is my first time editing.Ombrerose (talk) 23:44, 21 May 2009 (UTC)

CDC MMWR M8
So... these could also be used to illustrate something... 76.66.202.139 (talk) 09:25, 1 May 2009 (UTC)
 * Added to timeline. -- Zigger &laquo;&ordm;&raquo; 10:28, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

I actually don't really follow the graphs. I think they are not really useful, expect it comes with a good description (understandable for a layman). Is it a graph for Mexico and the US (counting all cases)? If sit is just for Mexico (as the subtitle says) then whhich one is the case from 17th March? The earliest confirmed illness in Mexico is (as far as I know) 2nd April by Edgar Hernández. After that, 4th April, fell ill Adela María (Jovita) Gutiérrez Cruz, the woman from Oaxaca, who died 13th April (in the current time line she dies the 12th AND the 13th!!!). Who are the ones from March, I wonder? The graph doesn't confirm the time line. I wouldn't use the graph as long it isn't consistent with the time line. --201.153.17.190 (talk) 21:15, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

File:Influenza-2009-cases.png
Another temporal graph image has shown up... File:Influenza-2009-cases.png 76.66.202.139 (talk) 12:47, 1 May 2009 (UTC)
 * This probably counts as original research, alas. kencf0618 (talk) 21:47, 1 May 2009 (UTC)

State and Province Flag Icons
Should province and state flag icons be added for the first reported cases in a region? I think we need that level of sub-national granularity to track at least the initial spread of H1N1. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Kencf0618 (talk • contribs) 02:48:14, 2 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Interesting idea, but it was too hard to distinguish between them. The icons are too small for the level of detail used by most sub-national regions, and there are too many provinces/states to easily do visual matches anyway. It's also not obvious which icons are countries and which are lesser regions, unless you're familiar with them all. -- Zigger &laquo;&ordm;&raquo; 05:17, 2 May 2009 (UTC)
 * You don't have to be. Anyone from Alberta, say, would be familiar with their flag; visual matching wouldn't be problematic.  And we need to do the state/province level because that's where the intitial reports come from!  It would also devote, visually, the spread throughout a nation-state.  But we'll see.  kencf0618 (talk) 06:56, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

Pandemic level 6!
okay it wasnt highered up to 6 yet but the UK will probally mark the first local spread out of north america and in europe, it'll probally be only about 36 hours till the alert level is rised up to 6. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 79.97.0.250 (talk) 13:06, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

I would think that Japan will be the country that will raise the Pandemic level, take a look at it, possibly over 1000 infected in a few days. This is definitely transmitted locally. I'm just waiting for WHO to announce the level 6 Pandemic. --80.202.113.87 (talk) 23:04, 18 May 2009 (UTC)

Flag icons
I've removed the extreme overuse of flag icons from this article. Per Manual of Style (icons), flag icons should not be used as decoration and should not be used excessively. The flag icons were also, in my opinion, aesthetically overbearing. Please do not readd them without justification here first. -- auburn pilot  talk  16:17, 2 May 2009 (UTC)
 * I thought they lead the eye quite nicely, but chacun à son goût. I'm limiting them to the first confirmed case or cases per nation & the WHO round-up.  kencf0618 (talk) 16:57, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

Correction of time line to make it consistent with main article
Please correct the time line to make it consistent with the main article!

In "Initial Outbreaks" of the main article it says:

The new strain of swine flu was first recognized as such when the CDC received a sample on April 14 from a patient who fell ill on March 30 in San Diego County, California. A second case was confirmed on April 17 who had fallen ill on March 28 in Imperial County, California.[66][67]

The outbreak was first detected in Mexico City, where surveillance began picking up a surge in cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) starting March 18.[68] The surge was assumed by Mexican authorities to be "late-season flu" (which usually coincides with a mild Influenzavirus B peak)[69] until April 21,[70][71] when a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alert concerning two isolated cases of a novel swine flu was reported in the media.[72] Some samples were sent to the U.S.-based CDC on April 18.[73] The Mexican cases were confirmed by the CDC and the World Health Organization to be a new strain of H1N1.[68][74] So in March it should appear that the children fell ill in San Diego, California. Then I would rewrite and just mention the part that in Mexiko surveillance began picking up a surge in cases of influenza-like illness (ILI). There also the 60% of the inhabitant of La Gloria should be mentioned (the first got ill in February, but the outbreak happened Mid-March). http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/27/swine-flu-search-outbreak-source "Some people started getting ill in February and an eight-month-old baby died," she said. "After that another baby died on 21 March. Suddenly most of the village got ill. http://wap.twp.mlogic3g.com/detail.jsp?key=380627&rc=wo&p=1&all=1 The outbreak, which began in mid-March, led more than 800 people to seek medical attention, said the mayor of nearby Perote, Guillermo Franco Vázquez. The 5-year-old boy Edgar Hernández, so-called "patient zero" (by the press, and who isn't obviously a real patient zero), should be mentioned in April. He was one of the last ones who fell ill, actually 2nd April (see main article with reference). It should also be mentioned that the California cases were first recognized as such, confirmed, and reported by the CDC. Please don't mix events with others that happened to another time in one month section. That would mix the time line. The ones who want to know the connections, can read the main article where things are described in context. The ones who want to know in which order things happened, want to see a clear non-mixed time line. And please remove "mysterious" which cannot be confirmed by any source! Please!--201.153.17.190 (talk) 21:13, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

I have tried to work on the article to improve it and get it closer to the facts. I would have preferred someone else doing this with better English than mine. However, since there was no response to my discussion article(s), I tried it on my own. I hope someone can have a look at it and improve it if necessary. One thing left: The 39-year-old woman... isn't she from Oaxaca and died the 13th? Why there is on the 12th a woman of the same age from San Luis Potosí mentioned? The referenced article is full of mistakes, according to my knowledge related to the outbreak. I would remove the whole event from the 12th regarding that woman, plus the incorrect article as reference. I also would try to improve the events from 15th and 17th March. I would remove the probable case, since it isn't a confirmed case. Better and more important is when Mexico started to look for such cases, to be alert. This I copied from the main article of Wikipedia and describes quite well how the order was: The outbreak was first detected in Mexico City, where surveillance began picking up a surge in cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) starting March 18.[68] The surge was assumed by Mexican authorities to be "late-season flu" (which usually coincides with a mild Influenzavirus B peak)[69] until April 21,[70][71] when a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention alert concerning two isolated cases of a novel swine flu was reported in the media.[72] For the 17th March: What is S-OIV? It is not really clear to me and I have to go to the reference in order to understand it. I think it shoul dbe renamed.--201.153.17.190 (talk) 19:55, 5 May 2009 (UTC)


 * S-OIV is Swine-Origin Influenza Virus. The source spexifies further as Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection. WAS 4.250 (talk) 08:34, 8 May 2009 (UTC)

I don't want to do more corrections on my own. I'm waiting for some response. The time line definitely needs improvement. It mentions events that were already mentioned before without reference and making clear that it is related. It sounds as if there is a completely new case (a second in addition to the first one). A shame that this time line is so neglected. One more question: How come that the earliest known case is apparently from 17th March (according to the CDC), although the "patient zero" (from Mexico) fell ill on 2nd April?--201.153.17.190 (talk) 20:21, 5 May 2009 (UTC)

Requested Move - May 2009
2009 swine flu outbreak timeline -> 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak timeline

✅ "H1N1" is canonical. kencf0618 (talk) 21:25, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

✅ This should be done without hesitation. &mdash; Aldaron &bull; T/C 23:22, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

✅ WHO had renamed "Swine flu". People would be misguided "Swine flu" that it is influenced by "swine". But it is necessary to make a note that let reader know the former name.Chihang (talk) 01:52, 3 May 2009 (UTC)

Exact Time zone
Dear All, I would like to ask that do this article have a exact time zone standard? As you know Mexico and Beijing have a time differences of 14 hrs!ThanksChihang (talk) 01:45, 3 May 2009 (UTC)
 * The WHO goes by GMT. kencf0618 (talk)


 * WP:TIMEZONE isn't much use here, so I guess we should use UTC, which is equivalent to GMT for our purposes in any case. --Pontificalibus (talk) 13:57, 3 May 2009 (UTC)

File:H1N1 virus infection in Mexico 2009-05-06.gif
There's a new chart available, File:H1N1 virus infection in Mexico 2009-05-06.gif.

76.66.202.139 (talk) 22:11, 11 May 2009 (UTC)

New Map? File:H1N1 map by confirmed cases.svg
There's a new map available... File:H1N1 map by confirmed cases.svg

76.66.202.139 (talk) 22:38, 11 May 2009 (UTC)

File:Influenza-2009-cases-logarithmic.png


There's a graph available... File:Influenza-2009-cases-logarithmic.png

76.66.202.139 (talk) 04:47, 13 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Please use it. This graph is much better than the non-logarithmic one at showing what is going on. It does need modifying to use the same scale for deaths and cases though. We would expect eventually to see cases and deaths on this graph as two parallel lines with the vertical separation representing the fatality rate. You won't be able to look for this if differently logarithmic (logarithms to different bases) scales are used. However even without this adjustment it is vastly superior to the non-logarithmic graph. Hawthorn (talk) 05:40, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

H1N1 virus infection in USA 2009-05-06.gif


Another new graph image:H1N1 virus infection in USA 2009-05-06.gif

76.66.202.139 (talk) 10:16, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

graph
found on the Spanish wikipedia:

76.66.202.139 (talk) 06:57, 14 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Note this graph is easy to edit, and does not require an image editing program, since it is done using wikicode.

76.66.202.139 (talk) 08:58, 18 May 2009 (UTC)

File:WhoLab18.GIF
A new chart at the US article... File:WhoLab18.GIF

76.66.202.139 (talk) 08:57, 18 May 2009 (UTC)

1, 2, 3, 6? That Can't Be Right... (timeline version)
This webpage, article displayed information for only the first, second, third, and sixth deaths in the U.S. Can we please put in information about deaths 4 and 5? I highly recommend it. Typingwestern015 (talk) 15:43, 19 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I'll check the CDC. The chronology of verified deaths shall vary over time, if that makes any sense.kencf0618 (talk) 05:42, 21 May 2009 (UTC)
 * I agree. News media have also missed US deaths 4 and 5 and it is confusing here.Ombrerose (talk) 23:44, 21 May 2009 (UTC)
 * Neither the CDC nor its FluView (sic) publishes a timeline as such, so while on the one hand the fatality numbers ramp up, on the other hand you have to pull together two references. Furthermore, there's a note on FluView to the effect that in case of a conflict that the state numbers should be taken as the most accurate given the various reporting deadlines.  So basically we're dealing with a succession of tables from the CDC, which is the primary source... kencf0618 (talk) 03:43, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Timeline Consistency
The date UK hit 100 cases (18 May) is not mentioned, but Spain's is (15 May). Comparison of the disease evolution in these two European countries will be significant as they have the fastest progression on that continent. The two countries have their first cases on the same date, but Spain maintained a higher attack rate by approximately 1/3. Recently UK has caught up and overtaken. Europe has had a slower spread than North America, Mexico and Japan and the UK's low volume is beginning to generate discussion and speculation in the media.Ombrerose (talk) 23:44, 21 May 2009 (UTC)
 * The timeline itself is evolving over time. A country's 100th (cited) case would be, if nothing else, a psychological milestone. kencf0618 (talk) 03:49, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

The timeline is not consistent anyway. How can the woman from Oaxaca die twice (12th and 13th April)? This timeline has many mistakes anyway. Not very useful. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 201.153.14.226 (talk) 14:05, 29 May 2009 (UTC)

Phillipines first case
The country had already confirmed its first case, why isn't it listed here? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 118.100.114.203 (talk) 11:22, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Charts
Found on the Japanese Wikipedia. 76.66.196.85 (talk) 13:39, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Templates for deletion nomination of Template:2009 swine flu outbreak table
Template:2009 swine flu outbreak table has been nominated for deletion. You are invited to comment on the discussion at the template's entry on the Templates for Deletion page. Thank you. Barnaby dawson (talk) 16:47, 24 May 2009 (UTC)

Argentina


An Argentinian image has shown up... File:Casos de gripe A (H1N1) en Argentina por semana.png.

70.29.208.129 (talk) 06:29, 31 May 2009 (UTC)