Talk:2011 East Africa drought/Archive 2

Donation situation, late August, early September.
AU famine meet raises $351m, figure questioned, By Barry Malone, ADDIS ABABA (Reuters), Aug 26, 2011: ‘A much-delayed African Union summit held to raise money to tackle famine in Somalia and drought in the Horn of Africa held on Thursday raised $351 million officials said, but activists questioned the figure. ‘Out of the $351 million announced by Jean Ping, chairman of the AU commission, $300 million came from the African Development Bank, to be spent over a four-year period, not to be used to bridge a $1.4 billion shortfall aid groups say they need for the emergency. . .  ’

‘ .  .  .  Of the remaining $51 million announced, many of the donations appear to have been announced before and donations came from less than half of the AU's 54 members. ‘"We counted about $46 million in cash pledges," Irungu Houghton, pan Africa policy director for aid group Oxfam, told Reuters. ‘"Just 21 countries made pledges out of 54 and, of the $46 million, $20 million came from three states - Algeria, Angola, and Egypt." . .  ’

‘ .  .  .  One of those, Africans Act 4 Africa, had urged countries to donate a "proportional" share based on their economies, saying a $50 million pledge was the least that should be given but that $100 million would have shown a serious commitment. ‘"It's an important step in the right direction," European Union commission for humanitarian aid, Kristalina Georgieva, told Reuters. ‘"Africa is now taking on the problems it faces. This is the first such summit held by a young organization with little humanitarian experience and a small but dedicated team. It will improve in the future."’
 * I summarized some of this in my own words and added it to the end of our International response. Please tell me what you think.  And please, time permitting, consider jumping in and helping  :>)  Cool Nerd (talk) 20:22, 26 August 2011 (UTC)

---

IKEA giving UN $62 million to expand overcrowded refugee complex in Kenya, Washington Post, Associated Press, Tuesday, August 30: "GENEVA — The IKEA Foundation is donating $62 million (42.8 million euros) over three years to expand the world’s largest refugee complex in Dadaab, Kenya, the U.N. refugee agency announced Tuesday. .  .  " "  .  .  .  IKEA Foundation CEO Per Heggenes said in a statement the donation will “immediately make a difference” in thousands of lives.  .  .  "

see also. . . http://www.africanews.com/site/Kenyans_for_Kenya_initiative_feed_the_hungry/list_messages/39439

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011830112614475886.html [This is an editorial, but it does include different groups helping out that we can then search for news items on]  "  .  .  .   Oxfam International, Save the Children, Doctors Without Borders and MercyCorps are just a few of the groups  .  .  .  nutritious oral fluids and peanut butter packed with vitamins.  .  .  "

East Africa famine donation matching ends Friday, CBC News [Canada], Laura Payton, Sep 16, 2011 12:07 PM ET: “. . .  The federal government has committed $72 million to the region already and the eventual amount of the East Africa Drought Relief Fund will be on top of that contribution. The fund will be split up among organizations that CIDA decides are best-suited to deliver aid on the ground. . .  ”

a longer "Health and disease" section, as long as "Security" section?
Well, there's no rule that it needs to be. If we were to try to make each section the same length, that would make for a clunky, clumsy article. But, as we get new information, I think we can update our Health and disease section and allow it to become somewhat longer. And then later on, maybe summarize some of the earlier information. Cool Nerd (talk) 18:59, 27 August 2011 (UTC)

Disease Fears in Kenya Refugee Camp Complex, 2011-08-25, New Tang Dynasty (NTD) Television, "Founded by Chinese Americans, and rooted in traditional Chinese culture," with video (15 second commercial at beginning, 1:30 news broadcast): [Dr. Geddhi Mohammed, Dadaab Hospital Director]: "Two thirds of our patients who come, especially children, are severely malnourished in the hospital. We have a lot of cases of respiratory tract infections; we have a lot of cases of diarrhea. At the moment, we don't have any confirmed cases of cholera, but we are on high alert because of the outbreak in Somalia."

---

Horn of Africa will need humanitarian aid 'until August 2012', Telegraph (UK), with video (30 second commercial, 1:07 news broadcast), 25 Aug 2011. This broadcast also has the same quote from Dr. Geddhi Mohammed, in fact, it continues a little bit longer: ‘. . .  A measles outbreak has already occurred, and now we are vaccinating all new arrivals up to 29 years of age. We've seen hundreds of cases of measles already in the past few weeks, and we expect to get more." said doctor Mohammed. .  .  ’  [This article also theorizes the future timeline of the crisis:] ‘  .  .  .  ."There will be a little bit of breathing space in November and December, but then between January and March it will peak again, before the rains come big time in March," said Kenya Red Cross Society Secretary General, Abbas Gullet. ‘"Even if they are good rains in March, people will plant with the rains and will only harvest around July-August next year: so we are looking at assisting people between now and that time of July next year," he added.  .  .  ’

-

Famine turns to health crisis in Mogadishu, Cassandra Nelson (aid worker with Mercy Corp) for CNN, September 6, 2011:

" .  .  Although it is famine that has forced so many people into Mogadishu for assistance, the growing concern is that those who make it here may be as likely to die of disease as starvation. Cholera and Acute Water Diarrhea (AWD) are taking the lives of hundreds of children.  .  .  Measles is also taking the lives of many.  .  .  "

let's remove and hold in reserve diseases that are not present
I am planning to remove the sentence that there are no cases of polio (thank goodness). People sometimes fly through wikipedia and skim really fast, and so if we include a negative, people may get the wrong idea. And this one is even an easier decision in that the link seems to be broken. Cool Nerd (talk) 18:58, 28 August 2011 (UTC) So, removed this part:
 * "There has been no report of polio cases. "

Vancouver Sun, 15 July 2011, "Millions at risk of cholera in Ethiopia"

I see other Vancouver Sun articles that mention cholera, but not this one. http://www.google.com/search?tbm=nws&hl=en&gl=us&as_q=cholera&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_scoring=r&btnG=Search&as_qdr=a&as_drrb=b&as_mindate=7%2F10%2F11&as_maxdate=8%2F27%2F11&as_nsrc=Vancouver+Sun&as_nloc=&as_author=&as_occt=any&tbs=cdr%3A1%2Ccd_min%3A7%2F10%2F11%2Ccd_max%3A8%2F27%2F11

So, maybe draw a distinction between primary health conditions that arise from lack of food, and secondary health conditions that may or may not be present and generally cover these secondary conditions only if present. And exceptions if something receives a lot of coverage or controversy? sure, there might be some exceptions. (and of course cholera, in Somalia, has been all too present, although I suppose it could be worse, definitely worth covering)

And we might also consider breaking Health and disease into paragraphs based on location. What's going on at Dadaab Refugee Camp, what's going at this other location, etc. Cool Nerd (talk) 19:19, 28 August 2011 (UTC)

UN expands famine area on Sept. 5
Famine Spreads in Somalia, U.N. Says, New York Times, Jeffrey Gettleman, Sept. 5, 2011.

" .  .  .  On Monday, the United Nations added the entire Bay region, where nearly 60 percent of children are acutely malnourished, to the list of famine-stricken areas. .  .  "

Somalia famine: UN warns of 750,000 deaths, BBC, 5 September 2011 Last updated at 13:00 ET. ' .  .  .  The situation in the Bay region was worse than anything previously recorded, said senior UN's technical adviser Grainne Moloney. "The rate of malnutrition [among children] in Bay region is 58%. This is a record rate of acute malnutrition," she told journalists in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. This is almost double the rate at which a famine is declared. . .  '

' .  .  .  Unni Karunakara, head of medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), says al-Shabab's restrictions on aid workers mean many people in Somalia cannot be helped - and says aid agencies should be more open about this when appealing for more money. "The grim reality of Somalia today is we are not able to get to south and central Somalia, which we consider to be the epicentre of the crisis," he told the BBC World Service. . .  '


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 17:37, 5 September 2011 (UTC)

Sept. 9th, UN estimate increases from 12.4 to 13.3 million persons at risk
Number in need of help in East Africa rises to 13.3 mn, (AFP) – 1 day ago (Sept. 9, 2011), GENEVA:  “Drought, high food prices and fighting in Somalia has increased the number of those in need of humanitarian assistance in the Horn of Africa to 13.3 million, the UN said on Friday. The previous estimate for those in need of assistance in the countries of Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti stood at 12.4 million, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said. . .  ”

Famine victims soar, Sydney Morning Herald, Nairobi, September 11, 2011: "  .  .  .  There are now 13.3 million people in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti who need urgent assistance, up from 12.4 million, according to new UN data.  .  .  "


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 19:05, 10 September 2011 (UTC)

--

UN ramps up aid in drought-stricken Horn of Africa as number in need rises, UN News Centre.

'9 September 2011 – The United Nations reported today that nearly a million more people need humanitarian aid across the drought-stricken Horn of Africa, bringing the total to 13.3 million, while funding to save lives there faces a shortfall of nearly $1 billion. . .  '

' .  .  .  “More than 917,000 Somalis now live as refugees in the four neighbouring countries: Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Yemen,” UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) spokesperson Fatoumata Lejeune-Kaba told a news briefing in Geneva. “Approximately one in every three was forced to flee this year. Altogether, more than 1.4 million Somalis are displaced within the country. This now makes a third of Somalia's estimated 7.5 million people displaced.”. . ' '  .  .  .  In Kenya, OCHA reported that some 3.75 million people need food and non-food aid for the next six months at least, up from 2.4 million in January. Failed or poor March-June long rains have culminated in the third failed season in the south-eastern and coastal cropping lowlands and the second in the northern, north-eastern and eastern pastoral areas. . .  '


 * Just commenting to express my admiration of your great work in this article. Keep it up.  Jim  Sukwutput   23:13, 12 September 2011 (UTC)


 * Thank you for your kind words, Jim. And yes, time permitting, I will keep up my work.  Cool Nerd (talk) 02:24, 14 September 2011 (UTC)

Illustrations
I placed back the image File:Oxfam East Africa - A mass grave for children in Dadaab.jpg into the article as I think it illustrates very well the article (the Dadaab refugee camp, local landscape, mortality) and is of high quality. The image is also currently a Featured Picture Candidate. One of the key criteria for FPs is the encyclopaedic value of the image in the article it appears. Editors of this article are invited to share their views on the merits of the image. --Elekhh (talk) 03:33, 14 September 2011 (UTC)
 * The article is not about the Dadaab camp in Kenya but about the drought crisis as a whole, which is affecting much of the Eastern Africa region. A pic from Dadaab was also already included, as was another from the Turkana region (Kenya's largest district). I have therefore restored the pic of displaced people on the Somalia-Ethiopia border. Middayexpress (talk) 19:01, 14 September 2011 (UTC)
 * That's why I fully agree that the map is the most appropriate illustration in the infobox. But isn't it that the "drought as a whole" is notable because of its severity and that it caused the death of many people? I thought that an image depicting exactly this would be the most appropriate for illustrating "crisis". --Elekhh (talk) 23:13, 14 September 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, the drought is notable because it's the worst there in 60 years. While certainly exacerbated by the ongoing insurgency, the food shortage is largely a consequence of the drought, and is expected to recover once the rains return and plants are harvested, livestock grazed, etc.. The UN and MercyCorps predict that that should happen some time in the coming 12 months. Your point is taken though. Middayexpress (talk) 18:44, 15 September 2011 (UTC)
 * Ok, so I've moved the pic to the security section, where there was some space & it seems applicable. Middayexpress (talk) 19:39, 14 September 2011 (UTC)

Cell Phones vs the famine
Interesting story here with aid agencies flooding the markets around al shabaab held areas and sending cash via the hawala system to those that need aid inside those regions. EdwardLane (talk) 09:33, 21 September 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I think we should probably include some of the innovative methods of aid. Cool Nerd (talk) 15:24, 29 September 2011 (UTC)
 * I went ahead and added this item to our International response section. And this will probably be one of many aspects of this story that's valuable to keep up with.  And the more people helping out keeping our article up to date the better.  Cool Nerd (talk) 17:46, 29 September 2011 (UTC)

Goal of moving persons from outskirts of Dadaab to new extensions by end of November?
Famine in Africa: inside Dadaab, the world's largest refugee camp, The Telegraph [UK], Sally Williams, 17 Sep 2011:

“ .  .  .  In July, the Kenyan government finally agreed to open two new spaces: Kambioos and Ifo Extension, which was actually completed late last year, but was unauthorised for use. Each has a capacity of 90,000. 'The Kenyan government dragged its heels,’ one veteran aidworker says. 'Now, of course, with the world’s attention on it, it had to agree.’

“'The target from UNHCR is to have moved all the people from the outskirts to the new camps by the end of November,’ Mukhwana says. Overcrowding isn’t the only urgency. If the rains come in October all of Ifo’s outskirts will flood. Dr Gedi Mohamed, the director of the Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) general hospital at Dagahaley, has another worry. 'As long as people live in the outskirts with no proper amenities, it is very dangerous. If cholera strikes, it will be catastrophic.’. . .  ”


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 15:23, 29 September 2011 (UTC)

mid-October rains damage temporary housing and bring increased risk of disease.
Long-awaited rains cause further displacement and child deaths in Mogadishu, By Eva Gilliam and Yussuf Keynaan.

“MOGADISHU, Somalia, 14 October 2011 - The long awaited Deyr rains have finally arrived in the south central region of Somalia, bringing much relief to those who have suffered through a drought which has lasted as many as two years in some areas.

“Unfortunately, the sudden precipitation is having a devastating impact in several Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps in and around Mogadishu. The makeshift huts serving as the primary shelter for hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees are made from polythene paper, sticks and cardboard, which simply cannot withstand the rain. As a result, thousands have been stranded without shelter.

"Risk of waterborne diseases

“Hypothermia and an increased risk of waterborne diseases such as malaria and cholera and acute water diarrhoea are serious dangers which accompany the rains. . .  ”


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 18:57, 15 October 2011 (UTC)

--

And apparently, the major rains, which will also bring the chance of recovery, are expected in March:

Horn of Africa will need humanitarian aid 'until August 2012', The Telegraph (UK), 25 Aug 2011.

‘ .  .  .  the Kenyan Red Cross last week [mid-August] bleakly warned that the drought will not ease in the near future.

'"There will be a little bit of breathing space in November and December, but then between January and March it will peak again, before the rains come big time in March," said Kenya Red Cross Society Secretary General, Abbas Gullet.

'"Even if they are good rains in March, people will plant with the rains and will only harvest around July-August next year: so we are looking at assisting people between now and that time of July next year," he added. . .  ’

Some mention of UN World Food Day (Oct. 16)?
Betting On Food Prices May Sell The Hungry Short, National Public Radio (U.S.), Marilyn Geewax, October 16, 2011.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/UN-Launches-2011-World-Food-Day-131944378.html


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 23:20, 16 October 2011 (UTC)

mid-October Canadian editorial
"We can’t abandon East Africa", The Star, Editorial by Dave Toycen (president and CEO of World Vision Canada), Oct. 19, 2011.

“ .  .  .  The emergency phase may eventually run its course. Or we may claim that our compassion is running out, or dare to say it’s hopeless (when the people of East Africa clearly disagree — they walk hundreds of kilometres to save their children). . .  ”


 * This is too good to lose. Let's keep this, and potentially use it if there's an appropriate place in our article.  Cool Nerd (talk) 01:25, 20 October 2011 (UTC)

visible progress from 1984-85 Ethiopia famine
The Untold Story: Famine Avoided By A24 Media, Published: Friday, Nov. 4, 2011 - 3:33 am. NAIROBI, Kenya, November 4, 2011 -- /PRNewswire/ --

' .  .  .  Salim Amin commented:

'"While the effect of drought are being felt acutely in parts of the Horn of Africa, what we found when we made these films would have delighted my father. Starvation no longer stalks the inhabitants of the very areas that were hit hardest in the famine of the 1980s. Instead we found green fields full and healthy, well-fed children." . .  .  '

http://www.a24media.com/whatsyourstory/healthcare/one-international-a24-media-hope-in-ethiopia


 * I'd like to get something other than just a press release, although we might be able to reference the actual ONE site.  Cool Nerd (talk) 17:20, 4 November 2011 (UTC)

potential resource, new IPCC report
From Talk:Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change and Talk:Extreme weather ...

Per NHK ... http://www.ipcc.ch/meetings/session34/doc01_p34_prov_agenda.pdf


 * U.N. Panel Finds Climate Change Behind Some Extreme Weather Events by Justin Gillis published November 18, 2011 New York Times (page A5 in print), excerpt ...
 * U.N. Sees Links to Extreme Weather by Nicholas Bariyo and John M. Biers November, 2011 Wall Street Journal (page A11 in print), excerpt ...

99.35.14.35 (talk) 07:09, 21 November 2011 (UTC)

potential resource
From Talk:War ... From Talk:Politics of global warming and Talk:Effects of climate change on humans ...
 * Africa Leads Climate Push as Its People Go Hungry "Africa is leading the push for clean energy policy-making as climate change turns millions of its people into "food refugees," the head of the U.N." Scientific American November 21, 2011 by Katy Migiro reporting for AlertNet, a global humanitarian news service run by Thomson Reuters Foundation (www.trust.org/alertnet); excerpt ...

From within the article, see UNEP, African Development Bank, Lake Turkana, Naivasha, 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference, Economic migrant and Environmental migrant, starting 1991 the Somali Civil War then War in Somalia (2009–) and OEF-HOA for more context.

99.109.124.130 (talk) 02:38, 4 December 2011 (UTC)

support of Somalis by ex-pat community?
Editorial, Shortchanging Somalia, Los Angeles Times, Dec. 16, 2011.

“ .  .  .  Minneapolis-based Franklin Bank is widely believed to be the last bank in the state, and probably the nation, that still facilitates wire transfers of money to Somalia. That may end Dec. 30, when it plans to stop. Somali immigrants in the U.S., who have settled in large numbers in Minnesota's Twin Cities, annually send an estimated $100 million back to their homeland. ..

“ .  .  .  officials with Sunrise Community Banks in St. Paul, Franklin's holding company, decided it was just too risky to continue facilitating remittances to Somalia. ..

“ .  .  .  Because Somalia has no real banking system, money is distributed through informal transfer businesses called hawalas, but these operators must work with formal banks to wire the money overseas. ..

“ .  .  .  One possible solution: The State Department could grant Franklin Bank a waiver from prosecution in the event that one of its customers, without the bank's knowledge, sends money to a terrorist group. That seems both fair and effective.”


 * This is a reputable news organization, does include factual information, but all the same, this is an editorial. Would like to find a straight-up news article that includes some of the same information, perhaps the following.   Cool Nerd (talk) 18:28, 19 December 2011 (UTC)

U.S. Somalis Lose Only Means Of Sending Cash Home, by Rupa Shenoy, from MPR [Minnesota Public Radio], December 17, 2011:

‘ .  .  Back at Kaah Express, Abde Mussa, a cashier at a convenience store, is sending $100 to his sister, who lives in a refugee camp in Nairobi, Kenya, with her two children. ..

‘ .  .  .  money-wiring companies need to work with an American bank. . .  ’

‘ .  .  .  last year when two Somali women in Rochester, Minn., were convicted of aiding the terrorist group al-Shabab in part by sending money through wire transfers. The conviction prompted Sunrise Banks to examine its records to see if its systems had been used in the same way. To Reiling's relief, they found no illicit transfers. "But could we have we stopped them from taking place?" he says. "The fact is that the people in either of those two cases were not on any particular list that would have flagged them in our systems."’ Reiling admits he's closing the money-wiring companies' accounts to push the federal government to improve security. Until then, he wants Washington to offer his bank protection from prosecution. . .  .  ’

APNewsBreak: Key bank for US Somalis sending money to Africa delays plan to halt transactions, Washington Post, By Associated Press, Published: December 9: “MINNEAPOLIS — A bank that handles the majority of money transfers from Minnesota to Somalia said Friday it would continue that service until Dec. 30, allowing funds to keep flowing into the war-torn and famine-stricken country while officials discuss ways to reduce the bank’s risk. “The news came as a relief to Somalis in Minnesota who say their loved ones might not survive without the monthly remittances they send back home through the money transfer businesses, known as hawalas. . .  ”

Reprieve for US Somalis on money transfer issue, By AMY FORLITI, Associated Press – Dec 9, 2011: ‘MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — A bank that handles the majority of money transfers from Minnesota to Somalia said Friday it would continue that service until Dec. 30. ..

‘ .  .  .  The U.S. Treasury says it's estimated that Somalis in the U.S. send $100 million back home each year. Minnesota represents the nation's largest Somali population. ..

‘ .  .  .  Because Somalia has no financial institutions, Somalis use hawalas, which require little paperwork and reach even the smallest towns, to send money. The hawalas need banks to do the actual money wiring, said Aden Hassan, a spokesman for the Somali American Moneywiring Association. ..

‘ .  .  .  But a recent terror financing trial in Minnesota led Sunrise to reconsider. In that case, two Minnesota women were convicted in October of conspiracy to provide support to al-Shabab. Evidence showed the women, who claimed they were sending money to charity, used the hawalas to send more than $8,600 to the terror group, which has ties to al-Qaida. In another case, a Somali refugee in San Diego admitted this month that she sent money to al-Shabab. ..

‘ .  .  .  Reiling said he'll continue to work with congressional delegates and officials from the Treasury, State and Homeland Security departments. ..

‘ .  .  .  He [U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison] told the AP in a telephone interview that a solution is needed that would give banks some security so they don't have to worry about enforcement actions, provided they don't knowingly aid the financing of terrorism.

‘ .  .  .  U.S. Sen. Al Franken also wrote to the State and Treasury departments asking officials to tell Minnesota residents about other options. Omar Jamal, first secretary of the Somali Mission to the United Nations, said a teleconference was held Thursday with the money transfer businesses, Treasury officials, and officials from the Somali government. . .  ’

http://allafrica.com/stories/201112120217.html


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 20:35, 19 December 2011 (UTC)
 * Thanks again for the links Cool Nerd, but like the previous ones on the specifics of oral rehydration therapy, they are irrelevant to this article on the drought & its effects. Middayexpress (talk) 18:26, 21 December 2011 (UTC)


 * Middayexpress, first off, this is about two hours of work on my part. And I very much think it is relevant.  This is part of the international response, or possibly lack thereof, to the food crisis caused by the drought.  And valid security concerns.  It is not all one sided.   Cool Nerd (talk) 03:52, 22 December 2011 (UTC)
 * The passage as it was presented had little to do with international response to the drought. It was mainly about alleged terror financing, which is not relevant to this article on the Eastern Africa drought (see WP:SYNTH). Somalis sending money home to relatives through the hawala system is also a routine cultural practice of long-standing; it didn't begin a few months ago as a consequence of the drought. At any rate, I've replaced the irrelevant parts of the passage with germane ones on Somalis and Kenyans sending money to support relatives. Middayexpress (talk) 16:50, 22 December 2011 (UTC)
 * I like the way you rewrote it. The only thing I might add is "on Dec. 30," that's when it's scheduled to be discontinued for the U.S.  And I think the CEO might be overly optimistic, but I guess we'll see.  Cool Nerd (talk)
 * They're still sorting it out; the December 30th date that Sun gave for its service is tentative. The CEO believes it'll work out, and it's possible that it will since he has the final say on his institution's affairs. Middayexpress (talk) 19:23, 22 December 2011 (UTC)

more cases of sexual assault now than in months past?
For Somali Women, Pain of Being a Spoil of War, Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times, December 27, 2011.

(page 1) " .  .  .  With the famine putting hundreds of thousands of women on the move — severing them from their traditional protection mechanism, the clan — aid workers say more Somali women are being raped right now than at any time in recent memory.  In some areas, they say, women are being used as chits at roadblocks, surrendered to the gunmen staffing the barrier in the road so that a group of desperate refugees can pass.  .  .  " (page 2) " .  .  .  The Elman Peace and Human Rights Center is one of the few Somali organizations helping rape victims, run by Fartuun Adan, a tall, outspoken woman whose husband, Elman, was gunned down by warlords years ago.  .  . ". . .  Ms. Adan wants to expand her medical services and counseling for rape victims and possibly open a safe house, but it is hard to do on a budget of $5,000 a month, provided by a small aid organization called Sister Somalia. . .  "


 * I don't like this article. Perhaps because it seems sensational, when it doesn't need to be.  The situation is bad enough without any sensationalism.  All the same, New York Times is an established, reputable source.


 * And we need to honestly ask, has the situation gotten worse? Maybe it's simply being reported on more (as well it should), or maybe it has gotten worse.  And the above section does say " . .  right now . . "   Cool Nerd (talk) 21:41, 29 December 2011 (UTC)
 * The link mentions an increase in assaults "in the past few months" i.e. since the drought began. This is already mentioned in the article and repeating it is placing undue weight. Forced marriages have also long been a part of Al-Shabaab's modus operandi, well before the drought began (c.f. "spoils of war"). They are also not the subject of this article. Middayexpress (talk) 22:16, 29 December 2011 (UTC)
 * I didn't know about these forced temporary marriages. And this article also says, or at least suggests, that the situation has gotten worse as Al-Shabaab has run low on money and has used this 'method' to buy off soldiers.  I also like the way this article says, a professed religious organization, sure not living up to their values!
 * To me, "2011 east Africa drought" means the whole broad humanitarian situation, including a goodly amount of the background. I am open to additional news stories that more focus on the current situation, and that also hopefully better puts happenings into context.  Cool Nerd (talk) 21:24, 1 January 2012 (UTC)
 * This article is on the 2011 East Africa drought, not a general humanitarian situation (c.f. WP:OFFTOPIC). Middayexpress (talk) 08:55, 2 January 2012 (UTC)

Decrease in migrant flow & prospects of good harvest season
http://www.pcusa.org/news/2011/12/5/number-somali-refugees-declining-due-aid-and-rainf/

According to the Lutheran World Federation, military activities in the conflict zones of southern Somalia and a scaling up of relief operations had by early December 2011 greatly reduced the movement of migrants. Rainfall had also surpassed expectations and rivers were flowing again, improving the prospects of a good harvest in early 2012. Middayexpress (talk) 08:55, 2 January 2012 (UTC)

Drought's effects exaggerated?
Manufacturing a famine: How Somalia crisis became a fund-raising opportunity

Many authorities in the development, political and press communities have started to question the extent of the drought's reported effects. Specifically, they suspect that aid agencies and NGOs have deliberately exaggerated the drought's impact and requirements so as to more effectively raise funds for the latter's activities. They also complain of a lack of oversight over and flaws in the aid agencies' data collection and reporting processes, and of reporters (most of whom are based abroad) of lazily obtaining their information directly from the aid agencies i.e. taking them at their word rather than performing due diligence and independently verifying the claims. Middayexpress (talk) 22:31, 29 December 2011 (UTC)


 * If we overstate something one iota, even a very serious situation, people can have a kneejerk reaction that they're being played. Cool Nerd (talk) 21:09, 1 January 2012 (UTC)


 * No idea what that means. Middayexpress (talk) 08:55, 2 January 2012 (UTC)
 * I mean, people are too ready to say something is hype.  Cool Nerd (talk) 19:20, 3 January 2012 (UTC)

Nov. 2011 Unicef press release, decrease in famine zones across south Somalia
Unicef, Media centre, Somalia, Press releases 18-11-2011 Massive humanitarian response to Somalia famine has saved children’s lives "Following the release of the latest survey findings from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) in Somalia, UNICEF welcomed the news of a decrease in the number of famine zones across south Somalia."

but coming hungry season March to July 2012
same press release (in word document itself on page 1): " .  .  .  and the approaching long hungry season from March to July continue to make children extremely vulnerable to death and disease over the coming months.  .  .  "


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 21:09, 1 January 2012 (UTC)

So, 4 million persons at risk, 1.4 helped (Nov. 18, 2011)
Unicef, Eastern and Southern Africa, Media Centre, Somalia, 18 November: FSNAU survey results show massive humanitarian response to famine has saved children’s lives, 18 November 2011.<

" .  .  .  In total, four million people remain in need of life-saving assistance.  .  .  "

" .  .  .  To-date, around one million people have benefitted from nutrition assistance, including 135,000 severely malnourished children, 1.2 million children have received emergency measles vaccinations, 1.4 million people have access to UNICEF-supplied health care facilities, and 1.8 million people have access to safe water, among other interventions.  .  .  "


 * So, a million persons helped with food, which I take to be the main central crisis. 1.4 helped with access to health care.  1.8 with access to safe water.  For the time being, I'll use 1.4 as an average, down-the-middle figure.   Cool Nerd (talk) 18:34, 4 January 2012 (UTC)
 * The 4 million figure above seems to have been taken from this link. The figure itself is actually the UN's previous estimate from September and early November 2011 (c.f. ). That's from before its November 18 UN report (which is already mentioned in the wiki article) indicating that the situation in Somalia had in fact improved, with the people in southern Somalia at risk of starvation dropping from 750,000 to 250,000 in just a few months. That's why the UN downgraded its so-called famine zones to only a few regions. Middayexpress (talk) 19:33, 4 January 2012 (UTC)
 * I will accept the miracle. But really, I have a hard time envisioning this much improvement in so little time.  I think a lot of it rests on different definitions.   Cool Nerd (talk) 01:41, 5 January 2012 (UTC)
 * So when the UN states that things have worsened, it's legitimate, but when the same source states that things have improved, it's a miracle (even when they indicated back in July that things should improve by late 2011)? Duly noted. Whatever the case, I have removed the 4 million figure from the lede. As demonstrated above with the BBC ref from September, that number dates from before the UN's November report indicating that things have improved dramatically in terms of malnutrition and mortality rates. I've also fixed the mortality rates in the infobox, which were grossly inflated (they're about 1/7th the cited rate). Middayexpress (talk) 07:49, 5 January 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes indeed, if 750,000 human beings were at risk of starving to death and now only 250,000 are at risk, that is a full-fledged miracle. And relief organizations and local community leaders might think they can improve things even further.  Cool Nerd (talk) 04:33, 6 January 2012 (UTC)

Our article says 12 million persons at risk
This is a significant difference. They are probably using different definitions. Esp since Unicef is a reputable source, I think we really should include both. And let readers see for themselves that people are approaching this situation from different angles. Cool Nerd (talk) 18:34, 4 January 2012 (UTC)
 * The 12 million figure is for East Africa as a whole. As of December 2011, it has actually since dropped to 10 million according to Church World Service . Middayexpress (talk) 19:42, 4 January 2012 (UTC)
 * And this might be a large part of it. Somalia vs. East Africa as a whole.  Cool Nerd (talk) 01:42, 5 January 2012 (UTC)
 * I went ahead and added a summary of the UNICEF source to our introduction immediately before we cite the Lutheran World Federation reference. Cool Nerd (talk) 02:24, 5 January 2012 (UTC)
 * You're referring to old figures (btw, the BBC article from September lists the previous at insecurity figures for all of the affected East Africa countries; it does not single out Somalia as attempted in the lede ). That's from before the UN report of November indicating that malnutrition and mortality rates had fallen dramatically due to a scaling up of relief operations. It's misleading to suggest otherwise. I have adjusted the text accordingly. Middayexpress (talk) 07:49, 5 January 2012 (UTC)

Jan 31, al-Shabaab bans Red Cross / Red Crescent
•	“Red Cross banned from areas of Somalia under al-Shabaab control”, Global Development section, Guardian [UK] “Supported by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation,” Clar Ni Chonghaile in Nairobi, 31 January 2012.

‘Hundreds of thousands of Somalis could be deprived of critical food aid after Islamist rebels banned the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) from areas under their control. . . ‘  .  .  .  said it had decided to "fully terminate" the ICRC contract, accusing the group of delivering out-of-date food. ..

‘ .  .  .  One humanitarian official, who did not wish to be named, said the ban was serious because it affected the Somali Red Crescent Society, a well-respected local partner organisation to the ICRC. . . ‘  .  .  .  Mark Bowden, the UN humanitarian co-ordinator for Somalia, said the ICRC ban risked rolling back gains made after international relief began to flow into Somalia last summer following a declaration of famine in six regions. "Leaving so many vulnerable Somalis without food will endanger their lives and could also result in pushing a large number of people back into famine, reversing any gains made," he said. "We appeal to all factions in Somalia to allow humanitarian actors to reach people most in need, wherever they are." . ..

‘In a statement from its Office for Supervising the Affairs of Foreign Agencies, al-Shabaab said it had inspected ICRC warehouses and food depots and found that up to 70% of the food was "unfit for human consumption". It said it had publicly burned around 2,000 tonnes of food. "Despite being offered unrivalled access to all the regions governed by the mujahideen in south and central Somalia, the International Committee of the Red Cross has repeatedly betrayed the trust conferred on it by the local population," the statement said. . .  ’


 * I have added a summary of this to our article at the end of the Humanitarian situation section. Cool Nerd (talk) 19:20, 31 January 2012 (UTC)


 * Al-Shabaab's general ban on aid agencies is nothing new and is already mentioned. The particular ban on the ICRC alluded to above was also imposed earlier in the month, not yesterday. It actually pre-dates the ICRC's recent announcement that the food crisis, at least in southern Somalia, is no longer at emergency levels. That's why it's mentioned in the article reporting this announcement ("The ICRC – one of few relief agencies that are still allowed to operate in the country - earlier this month suspended food distribution to 1.1 million people in central and southern Somalia after al Shabaab blocked deliveries"). This is an improvement in conditions despite the Al-Shabaab ban, not a worsening because of it as erroneously implied in the text. I've fixed it accordingly. Middayexpress (talk) 17:55, 1 February 2012 (UTC)

Famine in Somalia over -- UN
U.N. Says Famine in Somalia Is Over, but Risks Remain

February 3, 2012 -- The UN announces that the famine in southern Somalia is over, but warns that general conditions are still fragile. Aid agencies have now shifted their emphasis to recovery efforts, including digging irrigation canals and distributing plant seeds. Middayexpress (talk) 17:21, 3 February 2012 (UTC)

Improvement in conditions despite ban -- ICRC
“The food crisis (in Somalia) has probably now stopped,” Daniel Duvillard, head of operations for the ICRC in the Horn of Africa, told AlertNet.

Despite the re-imposition of blocks by the militants on the delivery of relief supplies in some areas under their control, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reports in January 2012 that the food crisis in southern Somalia is no longer at emergency levels. Middayexpress (talk) 17:55, 1 February 2012 (UTC)


 * What I'm reading is that some areas in Somalia have improved from 'famine' to merely 'emergency.' Perhaps other areas have improved from 'emergency.'   Cool Nerd (talk) 22:14, 6 February 2012 (UTC)  For example  .  ..


 * Famine over in Somalia - at least for now, UN says, Ottawa Citizen, Agence France-Presse, Feb. 4, 2012: ‘  .  .  .  Three areas had been in famine: southern Somalia's Middle Shabelle, in Afgoye - the world's largest camp for displaced people - and inside camps in the anarchic capital Mogadishu.  However, those areas "have now improved to emergency level," the UN said, while warning that the situation remains critical.  .  .  ’

Next 100 days important? --UN Food Agency Chief (early Feb. 2012)
Famine over in Somalia - at least for now, UN says, Ottawa Citizen, Agence France-Presse, Feb. 4, 2012:

‘ .  .  .  "If we do not continue to support these people ... these people will not survive and we will have famine back," the UN food agency chief said.

‘At least 2.34 million people or about a third of the country still need support across Somalia, while hunger will grow in the lean period before the next harvest in the conflict-ridden Horn of Africa nation.

‘"We have less than 100 days to avoid a new famine in the region," he added. . .  ’


 * I welcome the recent improvements, but we may not be entirely out of the woods. There seem to be a fair number of ongoing developments, as might be expected from a situation in transition.  Cool Nerd (talk) 22:10, 6 February 2012 (UTC)

see also. ..

UN declares Somalia’s famine over, but says millions across East Africa still in crisis, Associated Press, NAIROBI, Kenya, Associated Press writer Abdi Guled contributed to this report from Mogadishu, February 3, 2012:

‘ .  .  .  However, the U.N. said that 2.3 million people remain in a food crisis situation in Somalia and still need assistance. That represents 31 percent of the country’s population. Across the Horn of Africa region the total is 9.5 million who need help. . .’

‘ .  .  .  Jose Graziano da Silva, the director general of the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization, warned that without assistance in the region over the next three months “those people will not survive.”. . ’


 * Yes, the number of people in East Africa in need of assistance dropped from 13.3 million in September to 9.5 million people ("the UN reported, and 9.5 million people still require emergency assistance in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. This is down from 13.3 million people in September 2011"). In Somalia alone, that figure plummeted almost 50% from 4 million to 2.3 million ("At one point there were 4 million people in Somalia in need of emergency humanitarian assistance, a figure which has dropped to 2.3 million") . Middayexpress (talk) 09:12, 7 February 2012 (UTC)

Famine conditions still officially over; crisis likely to end with August harvest -- UN
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Full%20Report_532.pdf


 * "The expected improvement in food security outcomes is largely due the Deyr harvest, which reached 200% of the post war average, and was the result of very good rains coupled with substantial multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance."


 * "The massive scale-up of emergency response since September/October has also had a significant impact on food access, acute malnutrition, and mortality levels. Among Mogadishu IDPs, the level of acute malnutrition has dropped from 45% in August to 20% in December. Death rates have declined since August but remain at the Famine threshold of 2 deaths per 10,000 population per day, highlighting the continued impacts of the 2011 famine and insecurity. Due to security restrictions, updated nutrition and mortality data was not collected in December/January for other regions of Southern Somalia. However, indirect information from health centers and feeding programmes suggests an improved situation from August 2011, though acute malnutrition levels likely remain higher than 20%."


 * "In the most-likely scenario, FEWS NET and FSNAU assume that the April-June Gu rains will be average. However, risk of a poor season remains, and populations in southern regions continue to be extremely vulnerable to both price and rainfall shocks following the devastating effects of the recent famine. As a result, large numbers of people are likely to remain in Crisis until the August 2012 Gu-season harvest." Middayexpress (talk) 09:12, 7 February 2012 (UTC)


 * The way I look at it, that leaves a lot of story to update between now and August. For example, we have the following.  Cool Nerd (talk) 17:31, 7 February 2012 (UTC)
 * UN Daily News, Friday 3 February 2012, http://www.un.org/news/dh/pdf/english/2012/03022012.pdf
 * ' .  .  “Some told us they were going back to Somalia to take advantage of upcoming seasonal rains to resume farming in their villages,” UNHCR spokesperson Adrian Edwards told reporters in Geneva. “They also say they left their women and children in the refugee camps but plan to rejoin them once the harvest is over, as they fear it is not safe to stay in Somalia.”  .  .  '

---

Okay, some of the timeline from the first source above:

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Full%20Report_532.pdf

“ .  .  .  Deyr harvest, which reached 200% of the post war average,. . ”

“ .  .  .  with the exception of coastal pastoral populations who remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Currently 95,000 rural people remain in Emergency and 195,000 people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in these regions. . .  ”

“ .  .  .  In the most-likely scenario, FEWS NET and FSNAU assume that the April-June Gu rains will be average. . .  ”

“ .  .  .  until the August 2012 Gu-season harvest. In fact, the number of people in Crisis is likely to increase from May in Juba, Shabelle, and Bay regions, when the benefit of the current harvest will be reduced. . .  ”

from second source:

http://www.un.org/news/dh/pdf/english/2012/03022012.pdf

" .  .  .  UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)  .  .  .  "

" .  .  .  according to a news release issued by FAO, which as part of its emergency response, distributed seeds and fertilizers to Somali farmers. The agency also rehabilitated 594 kilometres of irrigation canals and treated 2.6 million livestock at risk of diseases and infections associated with drought.  .  .  "

Towards summary to incorporate into our article:

The humanitarian situation in the Horn of Africa has been improved through a combination of emergency food assistance, development assistance, and a Deyr harvest beginning in February 2012 which currently is 200% of the post-war average. The UN has declared the famine over. However, substantial areas remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3). As of February 2012, an estimated 9.5 million persons required emergency assistance in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. This is an improvement from September 2011 when an estimated 13.3 million persons required emergency assistance.

In the most likely scenario, the April and June Gu rains will be average. This will allow an August 2012 Gu-season harvest which will bring many more people out of Crisis food status. However, starting in June and running through the August harvest, the number of people in Crisis may actually increase in the Somalian regions of Lower Juba, Bakool, and Shabelle.

Some of the developmental aid includes distributing seed and fertilizer, rehabilitating irrigation canals, and treating livestock at risk of disease.

(Just attempting a good, straightforward summary. Cool Nerd (talk) 18:54, 7 February 2012 (UTC))
 * The improved conditions are already alluded to. You're also missing the point of the UN paper. Besides the end of famine conditions, here again is its major conclusion: "In the most-likely scenario, FEWS NET and FSNAU assume that the April-June Gu rains will be average. However, risk of a poor season remains, and populations in southern regions continue to be extremely vulnerable to both price and rainfall shocks following the devastating effects of the recent famine. As a result, large numbers of people are likely to remain in Crisis until the August 2012 Gu-season harvest." In other words, the end of the crisis altogether in August is a worst-case scenario; and that's only for a part of the population in south, not everyone. The actual statistically most-likely scenario per the UN is an end to the crisis in April-June, given average Gu rains (which they expect). Middayexpress (talk) 19:01, 7 February 2012 (UTC)
 * I will re-read it, both these sources. But, I'm not seeing worse case scenario.  What I'm seeing is vulnerable agricultural and market system, to any future blows.  And it does state beginning in June through August harvest that the number of people in Crisis (IPC 3) may increase, which is not the same as definitely will increase.  Cool Nerd (talk) 19:15, 7 February 2012 (UTC)
 * The UN quote above clearly indicates that many people may remain in crisis until the August 2012 Gu-season harvest as result of possible poor rains and price instability. In other words, it is taking into account a possible downturn in conditions when making that declaration i.e. it's a worst-case scenario. The FEWS NET and FSNAU most-likely scenario, on the other hand, remains that the April-June rains will be average, not below average. Middayexpress (talk) 19:27, 7 February 2012 (UTC)
 * In the UN Feb. 3 press release http://www.un.org/news/dh/pdf/english/2012/03022012.pdf, I take it they are saying, substantial improvement, no more Famine [as defined elsewhere as IPC Phase 5], but continued help needed to shore up gains and hopefully advance to further gains. For example, the very first paragraph: “3 February - The United Nations declared an end to famine conditions in Somalia today, but warned that the crisis in the Horn of Africa is not over and requires continued efforts to restore food security and help people resume normal lives.  .  .  ”  And on the next page, this press release quotes UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia Mark Bowden as saying “  .  .  .  And we are now in the position to make even further progress to help people get back to normal lives. But we’ve still quite a long way from a return to normal and secure situations.”  Cool Nerd (talk) 02:34, 8 February 2012 (UTC)
 * http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Full%20Report_532.pdf “In fact, the number of people in Crisis is likely to increase from May in Juba, Shabelle, and Bay regions, when the benefit of the current harvest will be reduced.”  Okay, so it looks like just these three regions.  Cool Nerd (talk) 03:08, 8 February 2012 (UTC)

I have made some substantial changes, including moving some of the history from the lead to the "Humanitarian situation" section and adding some new material. In particular I wanted to include that the Deyr harvest, beginning now, has reached 200% post war averages, and that the number of persons needing assistance in the entire Horn has reduced from 13.3 to 9.5 million persons. Cool Nerd (talk) 05:10, 8 February 2012 (UTC)

The 9.5 million figure is not for the Horn but for East Africa as a whole. It's also already mentioned in the first paragraph and infobox. That said, the edit is unsatisfactory for a number of reasons: a) it undermines the ICRC's assertion that the food crisis in southern Somalia is no longer at emergency levels; b) it places undue weight on the UN's worst-case scenario of poor rains and price instability extending the crisis through to August; c) this is despite the fact that FEWS NET's and FSNAU's actual most-likely scenario is that the April-June rains will be average; d) the assertion that the "crisis is likely to increase from May in Juba, Shabelle, and Bay regions, when the benefit of the current harvest will be reduced" is still part of the worst-case scenario since the UN states in the very next line that "continued, large-scale, multi sectoral response is critical to prevent this deterioration and a reversal of recent gains". In other words, such an outcome is not a forgone conclusion as implied in the edit; and e) per the UN, the worst-case scenario only applies to 31% of people mainly in southern Somalia; the remaining 69% of the population are not expected to "remain in crisis", even in the worst-case scenario. This seems to have been somehow overlooked. No worries, though; I've fixed it. Middayexpress (talk) 11:19, 8 February 2012 (UTC)
 * I plan to look at our two above sources again, on the specific question on whether all areas in the region are out of official Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Cool Nerd (talk) 01:31, 9 February 2012 (UTC)
 * "Based on the latest assessment findings, Mogadishu IDPs, Afgoye IDPs, and agropastoral households in Middle Shabelle (populations formerly classified as IPC Phase 5 – Famine) have now improved to Emergency-level food insecurity (IPC Phase 4)." http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Full%20Report_532.pdf  And FSNAU site with same information: http://www.fsnau.org/in-focus/famine-ends-yet-31-population-remain-crisis
 * "Multi sectoral response, at scale, is required for all those in crisis and any significant interruption to humanitarian assistance or trade could result in a reversal of the gains made." Crisis status no walk in the park and, as we state, needs continued multi sectoral response.   Cool Nerd (talk) 01:54, 9 February 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes, I'm aware aware of the above. Note that the UN states that while the start of the Deyr harvest has already "reached 200% of the post war average", it is "expected to be substantially higher than average". For the rest, your edit contains a lot of repetition. The fact that the UN warned that, in a worst-case scenario of poor rains and price instability, conditions would remain at crisis level for about 31% of the population until the August harvest season obviously already implies that 31% of the population are already at crisis level. Stating it twice in the same paragraph is undue weight. Similarly, the statement that the FSNAU reported that no area in Somalia was in famine is a repeat of the assertion that the UN announced the following month that the famine in southern Somalia was over. I've fixed it. Middayexpress (talk) 14:06, 9 February 2012 (UTC)

FSNAU vs. Red Cross regarding emergency areas in Somalia
We might have an issue. FSNAU is reporting there are some areas of Somalis still in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Now, if the International Committee of the Red Cross has recently reported there are not, that’s a direct conflict. I think we just put both sources out there and simply tell our reader there is a conflict. Or, possibly one source is using the word emergency in the technical sense and the other in the everyday sense. I will make a point to closely read this Red Cross reference. Cool Nerd (talk) 01:03, 10 February 2012 (UTC)
 * It's better to closely read the materials each time, as I've learned. Aid agencies in general are now shifting their focus to recovery efforts (a different type of program) due to an overall improvement in conditions: "Aid organizations are now focusing on recovery efforts, such as distributing seeds and digging irrigation canals" . Middayexpress (talk) 17:11, 10 February 2012 (UTC)
 * http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/somalia-food-crisis-recovery-will-take-two-years-icrc
 * ‘LONDON (AlertNet) - The food crisis in Somalia is no longer at emergency levels but the needs remain "huge” and it will take at least two years for the country to recover, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has said. .  .  ’
 * It sure seems like this article citing the ICRC is using the word ‘emergency’ in the everyday sense, which is fine, but it’s not as specific as the FSNAU and FEWS NET article. So, I’m thinking go with that article and then save this one for something else, maybe that it is a projected two years for full recovery.  Cool Nerd (talk) 21:22, 11 February 2012 (UTC)
 * Also from this same source:
 * '“The food crisis (in Somalia) has probably now stopped,” Daniel Duvillard, head of operations for the ICRC in the Horn of Africa, told AlertNet. “There are still huge needs of course. Rains were quite good but one good harvest won’t solve the problem for the Somali people, .  .  .  '
 * You indicated in your edit that in one region of Somalia, Juba, "flood damage to crops and trade restrictions have kept cereal prices well above average", but completely ignored the UN's overall assessment of the situation in southern Somalia indicating an improvement in pricing: "The well-above average harvest has led to a significant reduction in local cereal prices in the most vulnerable areas in the south, improved purchasing power for pastoralists, and increased agricultural wage labour opportunities for poor agropastoral households". I've fixed it, and showed the actual progress in malnourished people reached in the relevant Health section.
 * Similarly, you wrote that "some coastal pastoralists have yet to recover herd sizes following consecutive seasons of poor rainfall and require “emergency livelihood support at scale”", while the UN here too points to an overall improvement in the lot of most of the pastoralists: "In the central and northern regions, most areas also benefited from good rains which lead to both improved pasture conditions and purchasing power for pastoralist households, with the exception of coastal pastoral populations who remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Currently 95,000 rural people remain in Emergency and 195,000 people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in these regions. The majority of those are poor pastoralists who have yet to recover their herd sizes following the consecutive seasons of poor rainfall and require emergency livelihood support at scale. Livestock exports through northern ports continue their positive trend since the lifting of the livestock export ban in 2009, with the highest exports recorded in 2011 to date." I've fixed this undue weight as well.
 * Moving on, the UN has specified that the crisis as a whole would is expected to be over by September 2012: "While many thousands of lives were saved in the scale-up after the declaration of famine in July, humanitarian needs will persist and will continue to need the support of donors and the international community until at least September 2012". As for the ICRC's assertion that "the food crisis in Somalia is no longer at emergency levels", this means that per the organization, areas are currently either at crisis level or below that. This is why aid agencies have largely shifted their focus to recovery programming; things like planting seeds and digging irrigation canals to avoid recurrence. That includes the UN: "The Food and Agriculture and Livelihoods Clusters will merge to form the Food Security Cluster and shift from emergency to recovery programming in Banadir and Lower Shabelle regions" . Middayexpress (talk) 01:17, 12 February 2012 (UTC)
 * I favor including both that the overall situation has improved and that some specific areas continue in Emergency (IPC 4).  Cool Nerd (talk) 18:19, 23 February 2012 (UTC)
 * Some areas is an overstatement. As can clearly be seen in the UN's included map, only a few spots in Somalia were still at emergency levels at the start of the month. And per the ICRC, the situation had by then already improved to crisis levels or better. Either way, it's still placing undue weight. As explained, the aid agencies have largely shifted their focus to recovery programming; things like planting seeds and digging irrigation canals to avoid recurrence. That includes the UN: "The Food and Agriculture and Livelihoods Clusters will merge to form the Food Security Cluster and shift from emergency to recovery programming in Banadir and Lower Shabelle regions". Middayexpress (talk) 13:21, 24 February 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it gave numbers for the pastoralists, and that might be a good place to start. Cool Nerd (talk) 20:10, 25 February 2012 (UTC)

95,000 rural people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 195,000 people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), in regions of coastal pastoral populations
http://www.fsnau.org/in-focus/famine-ends-yet-31-population-remain-crisis

" .  .  The well-above average harvest has led to a significant reduction in local cereal prices in the most vulnerable areas in the south, improved purchasing power for pastoralists, and increased agricultural wage labour opportunities for poor agropastoral households. Juba, where prices of local cereal prices remain well above average due to flood damage to crops and trade restrictions, is an exception.  .  "

" .  .  In the central and northern regions, most areas also benefited from good rains which lead to both improved pasture conditions and purchasing power for pastoralist households, with the exception of coastal pastoral populations who remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Currently 95,000 rural people remain in Emergency and 195,000 people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in these regions. The majority of those are poor pastoralists who have yet to recover their herd sizes following the consecutive seasons of poor rainfall and require emergency livelihood support at scale. Livestock exports through northern ports  continue their positive trend since the lifting of the livestock export ban in 2009, with the highest exports recorded in 2011 to date.  .  "


 * This are some actual numbers we can run with, and also acknowledging the improvement.  Cool Nerd (talk)
 * Actually, that's already been discussed above. You're placing undue weight on the exception of the exception, when a) the drought's worst effects in Somalia primarily affected farmers in the southern part of the country, not the northern pastoralists (exception #1), and b) the UN has actually indicated an overall improvement in the lot of most of the affected pastoralists, some coastal areas notwithstanding (exception #2). That's why the wiki phrase read: "Some coastal areas notwithstanding, the abundant rainfall in most parts of central and northern has replenished pastureland and also further boosted the purchasing power of local herders."
 * Here again is the UN's actual conclusion: "In the central and northern regions, most areas also benefited from good rains which lead to both improved pasture conditions and purchasing power for pastoralist households, with the exception of coastal pastoral populations who remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4)." Middayexpress (talk) 14:01, 26 February 2012 (UTC)
 * We are co-equal as editors and researchers. I am not senior to you, nor are you senior to me.  I'm thinking it might be time for us to consider asking a moderator to help us out which, afterall, is what they're there for.
 * The figure of 95,000 rural persons in Emergency is good, specific information which we ignore at our own peril. If we leave it out, we will not have an article as accurate or up-to-date.  And the quote from above " . . exception of coastal pastoral populations who remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4)."  Yes, this does conflict with the blanket assertion of the ICRC.  But, is there a strong case for saying the ICRC article is that much more accurate or complete than the FSNAU article?  And absent that, I think we should include both.   Cool Nerd (talk) 23:28, 27 February 2012 (UTC)
 * That's not the issue and never has been. The problem is consistent undue weight placed on what the UN itself clearly indicates is an exception to the general situation. As can be seen above, the UN indicates that most areas in central and northern Somalia have benefited from good rains, which have improved pastures and increased purchasing power for the pastoralists. The exception is in some coastal areas, where emergency levels have remained since the pastoralists there "have yet to recover their herd sizes following the consecutive seasons of poor rainfall". The wiki phrase already indicates much of this via its assertion that "some coastal areas notwithstanding, the abundant rainfall in most parts of central and northern has replenished pastureland and also further boosted the purchasing power of local herders." The essential, non-repetitive info that is missing is the explanation as to exactly why in the first place some coastal pastoralists have remained at emergency levels whereas the majority of the herders have not. I've fixed it. Middayexpress (talk) 15:43, 28 February 2012 (UTC)
 * The opening sentence of the fourth paragraph of the lead: "By January 2012, the food crisis in southern Somalia was no longer at emergency levels according to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).[18]" And that is not the only information we have.  And I don't think we should give preferred position to the ICRC as if it trumps everything else.  For it just doesn't.  Cool Nerd (talk) 17:49, 29 February 2012 (UTC)
 * The latest FEWS NET report indicates that the general situation in Somalia has improved, but that through March the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity will "persist in the 1) the riverine livelihood zones in Juba Valley and Gedo; 2) the agropastoral livelihood zones of Middle Shebele and Hiran; and 3) the southeast pastoral zones of Juba and Shebelle and Coastal Deeh of central and north." However, it predicts for the first quarter of 2012 an increase in people in the Stressed, Crisis and Emergency phases in Sudan and in the Stressed and Crisis levels in South Sudan. Middayexpress (talk) 17:45, 1 March 2012 (UTC)
 * I like the specificity of telling the specific areas. I still don't feel great that the lead sentence is this one source which is contradicted by at least one other source.   Cool Nerd (talk) 19:13, 2 March 2012 (UTC)
 * The ICRC declaration is the lead sentence because most areas in Somalia are not at emergency levels. The FEWS NET's map clearly shows this as well . It's again about proper weighting. Middayexpress (talk) 16:33, 3 March 2012 (UTC)

recent predictions for usual April-June Gu rains.
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Full%20Report_532.pdf Feb. 3, 2012 "  .  .  In the most-likely scenario, FEWS NET and FSNAU assume that the April-June Gu rains will be average.  .  "

However. .

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=94985  Feb. 29, 2012 'KIGALI, 29 February 2012 (IRIN) - Drought is likely to return to Somalia and other parts of the Horn of Africa over the next three months, say regional climate scientists meeting in the Rwandan capital, Kigali. The forecast comes just weeks after the UN declared the Somali “famine” over. . .   '  .  .  .  A particularly strong La Niña was recorded in 2010-2011 and parts of the Horn experienced their driest period in 60 years. “We are in a transition phase. It [La Niña] seems to be dying out but it always gets a bit chaotic now [weather-wise] during such time,” said Peter Ambenje, deputy director of Kenya’s meteorological department. . .  '


 * I'm just not that familiar with this source and am going to try to look up some others which either confirm or not.  Cool Nerd (talk) 21:09, 29 February 2012 (UTC)
 * The UN already took that possiblity into account: it "warned that, in a worst-case scenario of poor rains and price instability, conditions would remain at crisis level for about 31% of the population in limited-access areas until the August harvest season." Middayexpress (talk) 17:45, 1 March 2012 (UTC)
 * And I do like the FSNAU source. But even with this source, I don't want to rely too heavily on any one source.  As our article now stands is fine.  However, if there's an opportunity to update, I think we should be open to taking that opportunity.  Cool Nerd (talk) 19:20, 2 March 2012 (UTC)

--

IRIN is a UN source. http://www.irinnews.org/ "IRIN humanitarian news and analysis a service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs"

And picked up by AlertNet. http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/horn-of-africa-drought-warning-prompts-call-for-early-action

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_941_en.html

March 2012: Turkey ramps up recent efforts.
[ *** loaded with bandwith-hogging video commercials *** ] Why Turkey is Coming to Somalia's Aid, International Business Times, DANIEL TOVROV, March 8, 2012. " .  .  .  But Turkey has moved in the opposite direction, paying more attention to Somalia than any other nation in the world.

"Turkey has given more than $350 million in humanitarian assistance in the past year, a percentage of it donated by Turskih civilians. The country has also re-opened its embassy in Mogadishu, assigned a new ambassador, built refugee camps and, on Tuesday, began the first regular commercial flights to the Somali capital in more than 20 years. .  .  "

" .  .  .  Additionally, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made Somalia his personal priority, so the country's top businessmen and politicians have also pledged their support, if only to get into the Prime Minister's good graces.  .  .  "

" .  .  .  Somalia is thought to have huge oil fields under the autonomous region of Puntland, which is practically ungoverned.  .  .  "

" .  .  .  establish peace in "a country which shares the heritage of the Ottoman Empire," according to Today's Zaman.  .  .  "


 * So, realistically probably both reasons, and to some extent, they dovetail together. Cool Nerd (talk) 23:13, 9 March 2012 (UTC)

---

Somalia: Turkish Airlines begins flights to Mogadishu, BBC, 6 March 2012.

“ .  .  .  Turkish Airlines says it is the start of a regular service to the Somali capital, the first by an international carrier from outside East Africa. Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bosdag was on board the flight, which was welcomed by the Somali president. . .  ”

“ .  .  .  Turkish Airlines intends to operate a twice-weekly passenger service from Istanbul via Sudan's capital, Khartoum. . .  ”

---

Turkey - Somalia aid pioneers?, BBC, 22 February 2012.

‘ .  .  .  "We've had no security problems yet," said Alper Kucuk, deputy head of the Turkish Red Crescent delegation to Somalia, as we toured the camp surrounded by our own guards and a contingent of soldiers provided by the local administration. ‘"We have 2,100 tents for 12,000 people. Somalis treat us like their family and we are sure that anyone who has the willingness to do something for them will be very welcome," said Mr Kucuk. . .  ’

‘ .  .  .  While most foreign organisations remain cooped up at the heavily guarded Amisom base by the airport, some 200 Turkish nationals are now living and working in the city [Mogadishu] on a variety of projects, ranging from construction to logistics and aid. . .  ’

‘ .  .  .  The humanitarian needs here remain considerable, with hundreds of thousands of people dependent on outside aid and living, in Mr Kleinschmidt's words, "just above survival". . .  ’

-

http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/africa/erdogan-goes-to-somalia-to-help-victims-and-turkeys-image

[short] Turkish Airlines Begins Twice-Weekly Flights to Somali Capital, Bloomberg, Hamsa Omar - Mar 6, 2012.

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-272434-davutoglu-turkey-ready-to-give-military-assistance-to-somalia.html

http://www.anna.aero/2012/03/14/turkish-airlines-launches-istanbul-to-mogadishu-route/ Began twice weekly service on March 6.


 * So, Turkey is taking a leading role. Cool Nerd (talk) 19:41, 14 March 2012 (UTC)
 * Much of the above isn't about the drought crisis, including the Turkish Airlines material. But yes, Turkey is spearheading a rapid recovery in southern Somalia. Middayexpress (talk) 15:01, 15 March 2012 (UTC)

Time to broaden date and include recovery?
Would there be a good way for our title to include 2012 recovery efforts? Cool Nerd (talk) 19:05, 23 March 2012 (UTC)
 * The title reflects the actual topic of the article, which is the 2011 Eastern Africa drought. As such, the recovery efforts from said drought are already implicit in the title. Middayexpress (talk) 19:27, 23 March 2012 (UTC)

FEWS NET rain report for April 11-20.
US AID, USGS, FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning Systems Network) http://www.fews.net/docs/Publications/FEWSNET_Som_dekadal_rainwatch_April_11-20_2012_final.pdf SOMALIA Rain Watch, April 24, 2012

"The 2012 Gu rains started during the second dekad (11th to the 20th) of April .  .  .  "

" .  .  .  In Shabelle regions, most livelihoods received light to moderate rains, but Wanlaweyn district, Costal Deeh and adjacent agropastoral areas of Middle Shabelle received localized light showers. However dry weather persisted in the coastal strip between Marka and Badhadhe districts of the South. In most parts of Gedo and Juba regions, light to moderate rains with various intensity and coverage were received. However, field reports indicate that riverine and agropastoral areas of Sakow and Salagle districts received localized light showers and remained largely dry.  .  .  "


 * Probably should include some of this, maybe not all of it, for space, and also this is a lot of detail. Cool Nerd (talk) 18:59, 19 May 2012 (UTC)

FewsNET map for April-June 2012
http://www.fews.net/_fews/images/imagery/r2_near_fp.png

Except for a few insurgent-controlled spots, emergency level conditions have almost completely receded (c.f. previous). Crisis level conditions have likewise significantly given way to stressed level conditions. Middayexpress (talk) 19:44, 19 May 2012 (UTC)

Turkey spearheading rapid rehabilitation

 * "it is hard not to be impressed with the pace of the massive Turkish effort to help rebuild war-ravaged Somalia in such a short period of time."
 * "Somali Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali told Bozdağ that Turkey has done more in three months than the UN did in five years"
 * "the Turks are the only ones visible on Mogadishu's streets trying to bring the city back to life. They have succeeded to a certain degree, but so much needs to be done"
 * "Turks built hospitals, including the largest one in the city, refurbished existing ones with modern medical equipment, established schools, dug a couple of dozen wells for potable water and set up a tent city (which will later be converted into apartment flats by Turkey's mass housing development agency). The Turkish Red Crescent provides daily meals to some 15,000 refugees/internally displaced persons living in the newly set up center close to the airport"
 * "Not only did Turkey mobilize national governmental and nongovernmental organizations to rush to provide aid here but made sure the assistance efforts would be spearheaded by Turkish nationals with the cooperation of locals on the ground. It was not just about sending money and feeling good about it. They took risks while others shied away from Somalia"

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=273795

Middayexpress (talk) 15:01, 15 March 2012 (UTC)

-

regarding recent efforts by Turkey:

INSIGHT-Turkey tries out soft power in Somalia, Reuters, Sun Jun 3, 2012.

' .  .  .  Addressing the Istanbul conference on Friday, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan urged the United Nations to intensify its operation in Somalia, and called on other countries who wanted to help to establish a greater on-ground presence there.

'"We have really struggled to make Somalia's voice heard, to make those who do not see or feel what's going on in Somalia, see and feel," he said. In August, he became the first leader from outside Africa to visit Mogadishu in nearly 20 years. . .  '

' .  .  .  Late last year, the charity Doctors Worldwide Turkey converted a building formerly used as an ammunition dump into Mogadishu's most hi-tech hospital, doing it in just two months. . .  '

Turkey tells U.N., aid donors to move to Somalia, euronews, Reuters, Jonathon Burch, June 1, 2012.

' .  .  .  Erdogan’s direct remarks at a international conference on Somalia in Istanbul, the second hosted in Turkey in two years, were a sign of his administration’s growing clout and ambitions in Africa.

'“Without living there you cannot devise the correct policies and you cannot help. I invite the international community to open representative offices,” Erdogan told the conference attended by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, the Somali interim president and delegations from more than 50 countries. . .  '

' .  .  .  U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who has visited Somalia since Erdogan’s trip, said the world body was relocating more staff to the country and also called on international donors to work together.

'“Here in this room we are partners who can join forces, who can make a major difference for Somalia’s future,” he said.

'“Today I ask all of you to make this happen, in memory of those Somalis that have died and in service to those who deserve to live in peace and prosperity for generations to come.”. . '


 * posted by Cool Nerd (talk) 00:55, 4 June 2012 (UTC)


 * Interesting, but off-topic. The meeting was on post-conflict reconstruction in southern Somalia, not specifically on the earlier 2011 drought in the larger East Africa region. Middayexpress (talk) 14:04, 4 June 2012 (UTC)

File:Oxfam East Africa - A mass grave for children in Dadaab.jpg to appear as POTD
Hello! This is a note to let the editors of this article know that File:Oxfam East Africa - A mass grave for children in Dadaab.jpg will be appearing as picture of the day on February 16, 2013. You can view and edit the POTD blurb at Template:POTD/2013-02-16. If this article needs any attention or maintenance, it would be preferable if that could be done before its appearance on the Main Page. Thanks! — Crisco 1492 (talk) 02:58, 7 February 2013 (UTC)