Talk:2021 Atlantic hurricane season/Archive 1

Before an edit war happens
Since this has been rather consistent in the past few years around this time (edit warring in regards to when this article should be created), please refer to this Articles for deletion/2020 Atlantic hurricane season as it has been discussed in regards to this 'issue'. Typhoon2013 (talk) 04:29, 11 December 2020 (UTC)
 * For purposes of clarity, perhaps we should establish a standard practice at WPTC. TornadoLGS (talk) 05:27, 11 December 2020 (UTC)
 * The standard practice is to make the article either at the start of the cyclone year, or whenever there is the first bit of info unique to the season (generally the first forecast), whichever comes first. Also, unrelated, but potentially subject of a future edit war: this season might start on 5/15. We’ll find out in a few weeks if the season starts then, or just TWOs. Hurricanehink mobile (talk) 18:08, 2 March 2021 (UTC)
 * The NWS sent out a message this morning saying TWOs will start on 5/15. Until they say otherwise for the starting date itself, that stays 6/1. --MarioProtIV (talk/contribs) 18:49, 2 March 2021 (UTC)
 * In the same message, they said that the start date would still be 6/1. I think it is safe to say that for now at least, June 1st is the date that should be kept. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 04:48, 3 March 2021 (UTC)
 * It definitely starts at 6/1. 🐔 Chicdat  Bawk to me!  11:33, 6 March 2021 (UTC)
 * The season is expected to start on 6/1 unless they decide at the RA IV meeting that it should start on 5/15 alongside the issuance of the TWOs. Gum  balls  678   talk  21:42, 9 March 2021 (UTC)

Auxiliary List
Asking before I start a potential edit war: do we really need to include the auxiliary list here? I understand we should mention the difference in policy the NHC undertook this year, but I feel the new list doesn't need to be shown unless the season surpasses 21 storms, and that linking to the tropical cyclone naming page should suffice. JoeMT615 (talk) 23:59, 29 March 2021 (UTC)
 * I dunno, 2020_Pacific_typhoon_season does mention the auxiliary list. Jo-Jo Eumerus (talk) 08:08, 30 March 2021 (UTC)
 * WP:BOLD. Feel free to revert, and then we'll discuss it. 🐔 Chicdat  Bawk to me!  11:16, 30 March 2021 (UTC)
 * Maybe not so much wait until we reach Wanda, but at least wait until we get close to the end of the list, like we did last year. TornadoLGS (talk) 17:04, 30 March 2021 (UTC)
 * Per precedent we should be waiting. The aux list will always be available on the Tropical Cyclone Naming page. DarkSide830 (talk) 14:18, 31 March 2021 (UTC)
 * I agree that we wait. Like Darkside said, the aux list is visible and available on the tropical cyclone naming page. It's too premature to show the list now as the season has yet to begin or even have activity that would potentially allow the new list to be used. It should remain as it was prior to this discussion, in that we mention the procedure of the list being used in the event 2021 exhausts its regular 21 names. Gum  balls  678   talk  16:17, 31 March 2021 (UTC)

AccuWeather forecasts
There have been multiple reverts from people adding citations for AccuWeather's predictions, and the reverters claim that AccuWeather is an unreliable source. This is true, but would it not be ok to cite them in the context of showing their claims as opinion, and indicating it as such, i.e "AccuWeather made their forecast for activity on..." Gex4pls (talk) (lack of contributions) 15:44, 4 May 2021 (UTC)
 * If they aren't as reliable as other forecasts, wouldn't mentioning them anyway give WP:UNDUE weight to their viewpoint. Jo-Jo Eumerus (talk) 16:22, 4 May 2021 (UTC)
 * That makes sense, thanks. Gex4pls (talk) (lack of contributions) 17:57, 4 May 2021 (UTC)

Ok, the IP who keeps adding these AccuWeather appears to either work at AccuWeather or have some kind of connection there. All of their edits are on figures related to AccuWeather, and most of them are adding information that can be considered biased. Gex4pls (talk) (lack of contributions) 17:10, 5 May 2021 (UTC)
 * I would suggest leaving a message on their talk page, too. They might not be reading edit summaries. TornadoLGS (talk) 17:42, 5 May 2021 (UTC)
 * I agree. 🐔 Chicdat Bawk to me!  11:04, 6 May 2021 (UTC)
 * Sorry I'm kind of late to the convo, but AccuWeather has warned me of a Category 4 hurricane in my area. In March. And I live in the suburbs of Chicago. They are rather unreliable and shouldn't be added. Thanks for asking! Jay  Tee  🐦  19:06, 15 May 2021 (UTC)
 * I've seen those. Is that actually AccuWeather or some clickbait scam site pretending to be AccuWeather? TornadoLGS (talk) 19:32, 15 May 2021 (UTC)
 * I have seen those as well, they just appear to be an attention-grab, meant for the viewer to actually somehow believe that there is a storm, and as such download the app to get more information (I think?) Most of them are sites that impersonations Accuweather, though I have seen a few Accuweather ads. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 20:49, 15 May 2021 (UTC)
 * It may have been some clickbait, as I never follow those links, but still, a website that makes ads by pasting an IR image of Hurricane Dorian over the Midwest doesn't strike me as trustworthy, even if this is only as attention-grabbers. Jay  Tee  🐦  14:31, 16 May 2021 (UTC)
 * Definitely right about that. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 20:48, 16 May 2021 (UTC)

NHC? May 15 or June 1?
NHC updated their last TWO to say May 15, but It has been edited back to June 1? SputtyTheSputnik (talk) 20:19, 14 May 2021 (UTC)
 * It seems that TWOs will begin May 15 even though the season starts on June 1. TornadoLGS (talk) 21:06, 14 May 2021 (UTC)
 * TWOs seem to have started (see NHC website). However, the season will not begin until June 1. 🐔 Chicdat Bawk to me!  12:12, 15 May 2021 (UTC)

Ana's track
Seems that Ana's track is a bit off, there should be a TD dot before it goes extratropical at the very end. CoolStuffYT
 * , When Ana became classified as a TD, it may have been during an intermediate advisory, in which case it wouldn't always show up on the track map, or basically known as a non-synoptic point (I believe). A similar case is Hurricane Lorenzo (2019), in which even though it made category five status, it was for only one intermediate advisory, and as such, the cat 5-colored dot doesn't show up. Here is a better explanation for Lorenzo's track map: Talk:Hurricane Lorenzo (2019)/Archive 1 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 14:46, 24 May 2021 (UTC)
 * Aren't the regular advisories offset from the synoptic points by 3 hours anyway? The advisory downgrading Ana to a TD was issued at 2100. BT has it as a storm at 1800 and a remnant low at 0000. TornadoLGS (talk) 17:37, 24 May 2021 (UTC)
 * oh Okay, that makes more sense. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 19:46, 24 May 2021 (UTC)

PTC3 Draft Publishing
Are we ready to publish the draft for PTC 3 yet? It already heavily impacted Mexico, we have 2 full paragraphs of preparations, and tropical storm-force winds are impacting Louisiana. I think it’s ready to publish.DachshundLover82 (talk) 16:50, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
 * It was. 🏳️‍🌈 Chicdat Bawk to me!  11:58, 19 June 2021 (UTC)

Protecting Elsa
Hello fellow editors of Wikipedia! There is an ongoing discussion on whether Tropical Storm Elsa should be protected once moved into the mainspace should be protected due to the specific reasons listed on the discussion. Your input is greatly appreciated, thanks!DachshundLover82 (talk) 19:16, 1 July 2021 (UTC)

Why do we get "45 (75)"??
45 times 1.6 = 72. 46.875 times 1.6 = 75. 45 times 1.666666666666666666666666 (a repeating decimal) is 75. Georgia guy (talk) 00:37, 3 July 2021 (UTC)
 * The NHC uses knots and converts them to mph, hence why we don't get storms that are 55 mph, 95 mph, etc. Converting from knots gets 40 kn, which can be rounded to 45 mph and 75 km/h.  Akber mamps  01:03, 3 July 2021 (UTC)

ATCF is not reliable source for Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific.
As National Hurricane Center doesn't control ATCF because it was created by United States Naval Research Laboratory and Joint Typhoon Warning Center which NHC can override ATCF, Please wait for official NHC advisory before adding to this article Thanks. ElenaCyclone (talk) 07:59, 22 May 2021 (UTC)

ACE
Hi guys, I just wanna make sure everyone knows how to calculate ACE correctly, Ana's is correct (that is my apologies, I miscounted). From 35kts (40 mph) and above, values are greater than 0 and divided by 10,000 will give you the value. For example, 35x35 (as you're squaring the wind speed value in knots) is 1,225. Divide that by 10,000 and you receive a value of 0.1225. If a storm is a tropical depression at any point in its life, those values are 0 and do not count towards the overall value for that storm (or in the end, the season value).

Furthermore, before we get into the brunt of the season and we have multiple storms with ACE, are we continuing to use our formula for ACE, or will we be going off what CSU has for their ACE? I believe last year we had a discussion where we decided to go off CSU's values and not Wiki's values anymore, but I could be wrong. It's important we solve this and come to a consensus before more ACE values are calculated. Gum balls  678   talk  14:01, 26 May 2021 (UTC)
 * For reference, here is the discussion that we had regarding the calculation of ace: Wikipedia talk:WikiProject Tropical cyclones/Archive 43. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 14:43, 26 May 2021 (UTC)
 * Thank you! I couldn't find earlier to link to it! Gum  balls  678   talk  16:08, 26 May 2021 (UTC)
 * No problem! 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 16:47, 26 May 2021 (UTC)

Since the linked discussion was closed with consensus to use official sources over our own calculations, I would propose including the following text in the article: "The ACE index for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, as calculated by Colorado State University using data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is 1.0 units (as of 21:00 UTC May 26)." In-text attribution would make it clear where we are getting the ACE values from. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 02:58, 27 May 2021 (UTC)
 * That works for me. It's clear, concise, and accurate.  Gum  balls  678   talk  10:44, 27 May 2021 (UTC)
 * I agree. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 16:36, 27 May 2021 (UTC)
 * This page has the ACE. 🐔 Chicdat Bawk to me!  11:05, 28 May 2021 (UTC)

Reviving discussion, since this doesn't appear to have been addressed. Perhaps changing the reference to this would be better as it shows the total ACE for the basin. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 13:10, 18 June 2021 (UTC)
 * Yes, that seems like a good idea. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 20:15, 20 June 2021 (UTC)
 * I'll go ahead and make the changes since no one else seems to want to comment. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 02:36, 23 June 2021 (UTC)
 * Thank you. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 19:45, 23 June 2021 (UTC)

Remove Bermuda from Ana's "Areas affected"
Ana stayed a considerable distance away from Bermuda and due to the storm's small size even at it's closest it may not have even had storms associated with it rain on the island. I believe this warrants removing Bermuda from areas affected, but I wanted to drop a message here because it has been up for so long. RaskBunzzz (talk) 11:15, 8 July 2021 (UTC)
 * Oppose Ana DID some damage in Bermuda. So it will stay. Bera niladri19  🌀🌀 11:41, 8 July 2021 (UTC)
 * Oppose per Beraniladri19. 🐔 Chicdat Bawk to me!  11:46, 8 July 2021 (UTC)
 * Oppose I was wrong. RaskBunzzz (talk) 15:36, 8 July 2021 (UTC)
 * The nom has withdrawn. Can someone please close this? 🐔 Chicdat Bawk to me!  16:12, 8 July 2021 (UTC)
 * , Only two participants has voted, let's wait for others before closing it Bera  niladri19  🌀🌀 16:20, 8 July 2021 (UTC)
 * But the nominator opposed it. "I was wrong" implies withdrawal. 🐔 Chicdat Bawk to me!  16:21, 8 July 2021 (UTC)
 * , But the table may turn by other users if they participate Bera  niladri19  🌀🌀 16:23, 8 July 2021 (UTC)

New CSU forecast, July 8, 2021
CSU predicts 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Named storm forecast includes the storms that have formed already (Ana-Elsa) Source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-07.pdf MoiraPrime (talk) 19:52, 8 July 2021 (UTC) Nevermind, adding the above gave me my 10th edit and I was able to add it myself. MoiraPrime (talk) 20:09, 8 July 2021 (UTC)

No demonstration
The current article text contains:

"However, subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the early formation of Tropical Storm Ana on May 22, making 2021 the seventh consecutive year that a storm formed before the official start of the season."

I hold that a single occurrence of a tropical storm which did not even last two days does not at all demonstrate that subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year. A demonstration of this claim would, however, be possible with enough reliable data of the kind indicated in the table Most intense Atlantic tropical cyclones by month  on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records, because these data span the entire calendar year.

Besides, 22 May is not even that far off from the 'traditional' Atlantic hurricane season onset date of 1 June, so it would hardly support, let alone prove, the claim.

So I propose the word demonstrate be used no more in relation to (single) occurrences that cannot demonstrate a particular claim.Redav (talk) 14:27, 7 July 2021 (UTC)


 * Hi there! I understand your argument, however, regardless of how long Ana lasted, because it formed on May 22, before the 'official' start of the season, it does demonstrate that tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any such point during the year. Pre-season activity ends at 0000 UTC on June 1. So, even if Ana formed at 2100 UTC on May 31, it would still add to the point of the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis at any point during the year. Gum  balls  678   talk  16:23, 11 July 2021 (UTC)

Satellite image for Tropical Storm Ana
I have noticed Ana's image has been changed a decent amount of times, and I'm hoping an image can be settled on considering a discussion hasn't been posted here.
 * Support for Image 2 Bera  niladri19  🌀🌀 02:28, 17 June 2021 (UTC)
 * Image 2 and this shouldn’t have really been written given previous stances in the edit summary per . --MarioProtIV (talk/contribs) 02:45, 17 June 2021 (UTC)
 * Image 2 per the above. HurricaneEdgar    07:15, 17 June 2021 (UTC)
 * https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/bal012021.dat If the two images above were at 11z and 15z on the 22nd, both images are at the same intensity. Cyclonetracker (talk) 14:39, 17 June 2021 (UTC)
 * Image One Much more representative of the storm, image quality seems better as well. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 04:52, 21 June 2021 (UTC)
 * I support Image 1. Ana's peak intensity was straight at formation, and by the time the second image was captured, Ana was 35kts. Maybe someone can upload an image of the storm on may 23. 2607:FEA8:121F:A440:1C01:58CC:E983:4B23 (talk) 14:21, 19 July 2021 (UTC)
 * Yes, that is also true as well. I am not the photo expert on storms, so someone else may have to do that. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 15:55, 19 July 2021 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 23 July 2021
In this sentence:

However, subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated most recently by the early formation of Tropical Storm Ana on May 22, making 2021 the seventh consecutive year that a storm formed before the official start of the season.

Please remove the clarify template and replace "possible at any time of the year" with "before June 1" because while an occurrence before June 1 doesn't demonstrate anything about "any time of the year" (e.g. it doesn't demonstarte anything about December 31), it does demonstrate that a storm can form before June 1. 64.203.186.71 (talk) 18:31, 23 July 2021 (UTC)


 * ❌ The sentence is meant to refer to the potential of tropical cyclogenesis both before June 1 and after November 30, not simply to formation before June 1. TornadoLGS (talk) 22:37, 23 July 2021 (UTC)

Fred
It may be an open wave for now but I think we should still put the TS watches and warnings, it's virtuallt just a PTC atp but idk about y'all if you plan to do that. CycloneEditor (talk) 09:00, 15 August 2021 (UTC)
 * For the past few seasons, I believe the practice is to keep the infobox hurricane current, current storm information, and watches and warnings up as long as the NHC is still issuing advisories. This applied to both post-tropical and potential tropical cyclones; Fred should be treated the same way especially now that tropical storm watches are back up. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 10:19, 15 August 2021 (UTC)

TS Fred watches and warnings
I recently noticed User:Cindercat put an extended list of watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service under the watches and warnings section of TS Fred. Should we include the extended list or only put what the NHC has on their advisories? Kayree kh (alt) (talk) 15:25, 16 August 2021 (UTC)


 * According to this watch from weather.gov, the watch is associated with Tropical Storm Fred ("Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Fred will begin to move..."). That's why I included the watch in the list. Cindercat 🐱 (Want to talk?) 16:10, 16 August 2021 (UTC)


 * Moved the flash flood watch under it's own 4-= heading "Additional watches and warnings" so it's separated from the watches and warnings in the advisories. Cindercat 🐱 (Want to talk?) 16:13, 16 August 2021 (UTC)

Grace and Fred should have an article
both of these storms had made landfall in specific places, for example Grace made landfall in Dominic Republic as a TD is and it currently over Haiti which a 7.2 magnitude earthquake happened not to long ago. And fred made landfall as a near hurricane so they should get an article. Nioni1234 (talk) 00:31, 17 August 2021 (UTC)
 * Can someone make an article for Fred? ♫ Hurricanehink ( talk ) 14:22, 17 August 2021 (UTC)
 * There is a draft for Fred at Draft:Tropical Storm Fred (2021). ~ 🌀 Hurricane Covid 🌀 17:17, 17 August 2021 (UTC)


 * Comment i create the draft of Grace, Grace need a article if anyone help the draft click here. Draft:Tropical Storm Grace (2021)  HurricaneEdgar    17:42, 17 August 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fred
Hi. I think there should be an article about Tropical Storm Fred. Can someone please make it? PandasAndShibaInus (talk) 21:18, 17 August 2021 (UTC)
 * See the section above. There is a draft in the works. TornadoLGS (talk) 21:20, 17 August 2021 (UTC)

Tropical cyclone Fred is now post-tropical. Is it active yet or not? I'm updating information for the Lusophone Wikipedia André L P Souza (talk) 17:42, 18 August 2021 (UTC)

is active as post-tropical, in season this is not a active because we base on Extropical or post-tropical to considering none active, if the storm made article still active since NHC issued a final warning the WPC continue update so we bases in WPC.

since the WPC continue issued now the current information keep, until WPC issued final warring.

WPC Public Advisory of Fred  HurricaneEdgar    18:06, 18 August 2021 (UTC)

Hurricane Grace
I created the pages "Hurricane Grace (2021)" on Lusophone Wikipédia and Wikidata. Strange this page hasn't been created yet. I have information about the storm and heavy rain record in Haiti. André L P Souza (talk) 19:37, 18 August 2021 (UTC)
 * See Draft:Hurricane Grace (2021). TornadoLGS (talk) 19:43, 18 August 2021 (UTC)