Talk:A Treatise on Probability

re the General Theory
I removed the last paragraph. The "General Theory" did not "follow" the "Treatise of Probability"--they were 15 years apart! I'm not sure what the citation refers to... Also, although I personally agree that the "Treatise on Probability" was important in some of the findings of the "GT", this is not universally accepted, so is not NPOV without more extensive citations. Doprendek (talk) 02:42, 19 March 2011 (UTC)


 * I have addressed this in my edits. Djmarsay (talk) 21:14, 14 December 2023 (UTC)

"follow'
If it's unclear what "follow" means above (although I don't think it should)--it is in the sense "follow from", not a simplistic "follow after". Keynes never once mentions the Treatise on Probability in the General Theory, and does not use the terms employed in the Treatise on Probability when articulating the GT; as I mentioned above, I myself believe the TP was important in the formulation of the GT, *but that is far from uncontroversial* and is not appropriate for Wikipedia, unless fully treated as such, discussed, cited, etc. Doprendek (talk) 17:55, 29 July 2011 (UTC)


 * I would welcome a response to my alterations to the pages on TP and GT. Djmarsay (talk) 11:23, 1 December 2023 (UTC)

I have amended the entry on The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money to include the reference to TP, notably in terms of 'long-term expectation'. I have also sought, briefly, to bring out its significance for the formulation of the GT, but much more could be done. What I do think is that the interpretation of GT has largely ignored Keynes' concerns about the long-term, but it seems to me that this is largely where the significance of the GT now lies. Sometimes 'the long-term' can crash in upon us, as in financial crises, epidemics and maybe inequality and climate change.--Djmarsay (talk) 11:21, 1 December 2023 (UTC)

Objective
The article underplays the legacy. I am developing some additions here, with a view to updating the article. Why no relevance to wikiprojects on economics?

Resources
There are references up to 2015 in https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/125926/1/84573833X.pdf. There are more recent books by King and Kay.

Here is my starting list. I would welcome suggestions. i. Walley, P. (1991). Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. London: Chapman and Hall.

ii. Smith, C.A.B. (1961). Consistency in Statistical Inference and Decision. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological) 23(1): 1–37. http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2983842?uid=3738032&uid=2129&uid=2134 &uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21106750515543.

iii. Russell, B.A.W. (1948). Human Knowledge: Its Scope and Limits. London: George Allen & Unwin.

iv. Ramsey, F.P. (1926). Truth and Probability. In Ramsey 1931: Ch. VII. Ramsey, F.P. (1928). Further Considerations. In Ramsey 1931:Ch. VIII. Ramsey, F.P. (1929). Last Papers: Probability and Partial Belief. In Ramsey 1931: Ch.X, Part C. Ramsey, F.P. (1931). The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays. (Ed. Braithwaite, R.B.) London: Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner & Co., New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company. http://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/hayhetcha/ramsey1926.htm.

V. King, M., Aikman, D., Barrett, P., Kapadia, S., Proudman, J., Taylor, T., Weymarn, I., and Yates, T. (2011). Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Policy Making: Art or Science? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369(1956): 4798–4817. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/speeches/2010/spee ch432.pdf.

vi. Keynes, J.M. (1920). Economic Consequences of the Peace. London: Macmillan. http://www.gutenberg.org/files/15776/15776-h/15776-h.htm

viii. Good, I.J. (1977). Explicativity: A Mathematical Theory of Explanation with Statistical Applications. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences 354(1678): 303–330. http://www.jstor.org/stable/79232. Good, I.J. (1983). Good Thinking: the Foundations of Probability and its Applications. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.5749/j.ctttsn6g

ix. Gilboa, I., Samuelson, L., and Schmeidler, D. (2013). Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework. Journal of Economic Theory 148(2013): 1399–1432. http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d18/d1811.pdf

x. Frydman, R., Goldberg, M.D., and Mangee, N. (2015). Knightian Uncertainty and Stock�Price Movements: Why the REH Present Value Model Failed Empirically. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 9 (2015-24): 1—50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-24.

xi. Diaconis, P., Holmes, S., and Montgomery, R. (2007). Dynamical Bias in the Coin Toss. Siam Rev. 49(2): 211–235. http://statweb.stanford.edu/~susan/papers/headswithJ.pdf.

xii. Bray, M. (1982). Learning, Estimation, and the Stability of Rational Expectations. Journal of Economic Theory 26: 318–339. www.dklevine.com/archive/refs4205

xiii. Binmore, K. (2009). Rational Decisions. Oxford: Princeton University Press.

xiv. De Antoni, E. (2010). Minsky, Keynes, and Financial Instability. International Journal of Political Economy 39(2): 10–25. http://econpapers.repec.org/article/mesijpoec/v_3a39_3ay_3a2010_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a1 0-25.htm.

xv. King and Kay Radical Uncertainty

Further suggestions from djmarsay.wordpress.com:


 * Taleb e.g. Black Swans
 * wicked problems