Talk:Adaptive expectations

merge with wage/price spiral
No, I don't think this article on adaptive expectations should be merged with wage/price spiral. The two are different phenomena albeit subtly, and to merge them would diminish the subtlety and richness contained in each one individually.


 * I concur the above


 * I also agree - came across this article when I wanted to know about adaptive expectations in relation to Phillips Curve and monetary policy - am not interested in price/wage spiral!


 * True, I these are separate issues; they should be linked, but not merged.


 * As everyone has said above, no the two articles should not be merged. The topics are distinct enough to warrent seperate articles.


 * I agree. It's preferable to have the page seperately, especially if one links in from rational expectations and isn't particularly interested in wage/price spiral.


 * I also agree. 222.152.217.154 13:58, 3 June 2006 (UTC)


 * Don't merge, I came to here to analyse the differences between adaptive and rational expectations. Price/wage spiral has nothing to do with this so please keep it seperare.


 * Agreed, adaptive expectations is an economic assumtion.

I think the article focuses far too heavily on the wage price spiral, and should not mention it. The wage price spiral involves foresight since the whole point of it is that workers expect higher prices- producing demands for higher wages, which forces up prices. It is therefore a self forefilling prophecy, i.e foreward looking behaviour, whilst adaptive expectations describes how agents respond sluggishly to changes in the economy! If you apply basic AD-AS with only adaptive expectations a negative supply shock such as the oil shock mentioned will produce no spiral: higher inflation and lower output, and Just higher inflation in the long run which is constant and not progressively higher

limited in its scope
This entry is useful but limited in its scope to economics. It also ignores the early history of adaptive expectations. The concept has much grounding in psychology and goes back in economics at least to Irving Fisher. It should also be linked to developments in evolutionary biology, where behavior has an "as if" adaptive expectations.

Dr. Yetman's comment on this article
Dr. Yetman has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:

"I would suggest cutting the final paragraph. This is in my own field, but I've never heard of HRL. And the fact that Milton Friedman thought it was great in 1968 is weak justification for including it in an accessible source like wiki."

We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.

Dr. Yetman has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:


 * Reference : Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2014. "Decaying expectations: what inflation forecasts tell us about the anchoring of inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 464, Bank for International Settlements.

ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 18:34, 27 June 2016 (UTC)