Talk:Backstop resources/workshop

Peak oil
When the model is expanded to include crude oil plus conventionals plus non-conventionals, global production is seen rising through 2030. Global production of all these liquid energy sources was 66.3 million barrels per day in 1990. This rose to 82.9 million barrels per day by 2004. By 2015, assuming oil in the $60-80 per barrel range, production will rise to 97.4 million barrels per day and 117.7 million barrels per day in 2030 in this "reference" case.

The shape of the Hubbert Curve is dependent on two variables that were assumed as constants in the original theory - demand and price. When prices rise the production of substitutes increases and the level of peak year global crude oil production falls and extends in time. The integral of the Hubbert curve which represents total cumulative production also rises over a certain range of higher prices.

Demand is price elastic over time and higher prices of crude oil and other substitutes leads to reduced demand. A graph of cumulative oil production with respect to a change in assumed prices is complex, with the effects of higher prices creating longer-term supply elasticity against elastic demand.

As a result if oil moves into the high price scenario above the reference case, production of all these resources declines to 88.4 million barrels per day in 2015 and 103.4 million barrels per day due to reduced demand. Demand is changed through conservation and improved efficiency of the use of energy inputs throughout the economy. U.S. consumption of oil declined significantly after the oil price shock of 1979. The U.S. consumed 14.7 million barrels per day of refinery inputs in 1978. This amount fell to a low of 11.7 million barrels per day in 1983. Pre-1979 levels were not surpassed until 1997.

Hydrogen
Hydrogen is not a source of energy. It is a way to store energy in a transportable form (high pressure compressed gas) as a substitute to transportable stored energy liquids such as gasoline. Hydrogen could be combusted but most technology is heading towards fuel cells where hydrogen recombines with atmospheric oxygen in a reaction that releases electric power. In effect, hydrogen is a substitute to batteries which store electric power.

An energy source is thus required to crack hydrogen from water, H2O, which is then captured and compressed. This energy source is electric power.

If this electric power is generated from coal, then in effect hydrogen fuel cells are a substitute to coal-to-liquids non-conventional petroleum which is a currently produced substitute to crude oil. Whether coal will be liquified to gasoline or burned to produced electric power that is used to crack water into hydrogen will be determined by the relative economics of each method over time and by political decisions which will alter market prices or declare a decision.

Nuclear fission
Since electric power generated by nuclear reaction is a substitute to coal-fired electric power generation, nuclear power becomes a source of energy which can be used to crack water into hydrogen as a substitute for coal as a substitute for crude oil.

Alternative energy
Since alternative renewable energy sources are a substitute to coal-fired electric power generation, alternative renewable energy such as solar and wind power becomes a source of energy which can be used to crack water into hydrogen as a substitute for coal as a substitute for crude oil.

Hydrogen through fusion as the ultimate backstop resource
Fusion power takes a percentage of the electric power it produces to crack hydrogen from water or from a variety of other sources on Earth. This hydrogen is then fused into helium. The amount of energy required to break the chemical bonds of hydrogen from oxygen in water is insignificant relative to the power released when hydrogen fuses into helium. The total potential energy of all hydrocarbon molecules on Earth is insignificant relative to the potential energy in hydrogen fusion.

Historical examples
The backstop resource theory's implications are seen in the EIA's 2007 International Energy Outlook clearly by examining projected production levels for a wide array of crude oil substitutes when the price of crude oil varies. Under the high price assumption, production of non-conventional liquid hydrocarbon substitutes for crude oil rises. For example, coal-to-liquids production rises to 3.9 million bbl/d in 2030, a 16% annual growth rate from 2004 through 2030. Canadian Tar Sand production rises to 4.4 million bbl in 2030.