Talk:Chinese Century/Archives/2019

China Century—don’t count out the US in the 21st Century, from a 2010 IBD editorial:
The Chinese Century?

Posted 07/30/2010 07:12 PM ET

Growth: China claims it has just passed Japan as the world's No. 2 economy, and it's beating its chest loudly about the fact. But, as impressive as its new status may be, it still deserves a bit of perspective.

We've heard about this being the Chinese Century, with the U.S. soon to be consigned to the ash heap of once-great empires.

Now new projections from the World Bank, Goldman Sachs and others, as reported by CNBC, say China will pass the U.S. as the world's largest economy in just 15 years.

As China's government-run People's Daily Online wondered, "Is the U.S. ready to recognize China as a world power?"

Well, we already do. But the fact is, China has a long way to go to achieve U.S. economic status — and may never get there.

Sure, since China's market-based reforms began in 1978, its gross domestic product has grown at a torrid 9.5%-a-year average rate — at least according to the communist regime's dubious statistics.

But it's important to remember: China has 1.2 billion people. And even though its economy is large, it amounts to just $3,800 in per capita GDP. That compares with $47,700 in the U.S. Even if China grows 7% a year for the next 30 years, its average per-capita income will still be less than half that of America.

But even that growth is a stretch. Why? China is aging faster than almost any country on Earth, due in large part to its one-child policy in place since the 1970s. There's a saying in economics: You have to get rich before you get old. China's fast turning into the world's largest retirement home, and may not quite make it.

Today, China has six workers to support each retiree. By 2040, that ratio plummets to 2-to-1. Much of the money that's now saved for investment will be redirected to take care of the elderly.

Worse, its population is about to decline. By 2030, about the time the Chinese are supposed to be passing the Americans, China's population will start to shrink, recent estimates show. Hard to expand an economy when your population is getting smaller.

Nor is China a particularly efficient country.

As an unnamed Chinese official told Germany's Der Spiegel a few years back: "To produce goods worth $10,000, we need several times the resources used by Japan, almost six times the resources used by the U.S. and — a particular source of embarrassment — almost three times the resources used by India."

So, congratulations, China. Go ahead and brag. But you're in the big leagues, with big-league problems. And when it comes to living standards, don't expect to leapfrog the U.S. soon. Sgt.red.blue.red (talk) 19:12, 23 July 2018 (UTC)


 * GDP per capita is the index you want to use? That means the US is far away from being the world's largest economy - somewhere between 5th and 9th, then. Adjust GDP for PPP and the USA comes even lower - about 20th. A host of small, prosperous European nations easily outstrip America.
 * There's a reason why the American media - and most Americans - talk ONLY of US GROSS GDP. 'Chest-beating...' 81.155.74.89 (talk) 13:07, 5 August 2022 (UTC)