Talk:Demographic history of Palestine (region)

1922 census mention
So, I tried to put in info from the 1922 census of Palestine concerning migration from Transjordan and the Hejaz between 1914-1922]. I feel that this should be included, as it was mentioned in one of two official censuses done during the Mandate era, and really is no different from mentioning Bosniak migration in the 1870s or Egyptian migration in the first half of the 19th century. @Selfstudier, you reverted it because "Looks like cherrypicking, address issue in global terms". I'd like to have a discussion about this. What exactly are the problems with mentioning this? How is it in any way different from other mentions? Should we have rules over which cases of migration are mentioned here and which are not? As of now it seems like this was reverted for basically no real reason.--RM (Be my friend) 12:26, 12 September 2021 (UTC)
 * Compromise? I don't think so, just more cherrypicking and I tagged it for that.Selfstudier (talk) 13:19, 12 September 2021 (UTC)
 * I know it's been a while and I didn't really pay attention to this earlier (my fault) but can I get a second opinion if it's actually cherrypicking? I don't see a reason for that tag, this is simple census data pointing to an event that in my opinion deserves mention here. I don't think that tag being there is appropriate.--RM (Be my friend) 17:50, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * "The Ottoman authorities in 1914 placed the tribal population of Beersheba at 55,000...." The section title is "British Mandate period, 1919–1948". Cherrypicking aside, it shouldn't be in there at all but I didn't want to get into an edit war after Shrike restored it.Selfstudier (talk) 18:29, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * If that's the main problem then it should be moved somewhere. I'll try and see if I can find a better place to put it. Note however that some estimates will naturally span over more than just the Mandate era, making iron distinctions difficult. Insisting that it's unbalanced/biased simply for being there is something I don't get. And why exactly shouldn't it be there at all? It's a potentially significant figure that deserves some mention. I'll review this and see if there's a better place to put it but I don't think the tag should be there at all.--RM (Be my friend) 18:36, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Well, I don't know why so much interest in this particular datum, let's see what it looks like when you decided where to put it, presumably in the preceding section "Ottoman period, 1800–1918"? Selfstudier (talk) 18:41, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Done. Hope this is better.--RM (Be my friend) 18:44, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Looks OK from my POV. Is there a figure for the increase?Selfstudier (talk) 18:49, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Not sure, I'd have to go through the 1922 census to find this again and see, or maybe finding another source that gives figures for this period, but this was at least notable enough to warrant a mention in the census.--RM (Be my friend) 18:58, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * "Changes in rural areas: The population of the predominantly Arab Beersheba district dropped between 1922 and 1939 from 71,000 to 49,000 (the rate of natural increase should have resulted in a rise to 89,000)." https://lessons.myjli.com/survival/index.php/2017/03/26/land-ownership-in-palestine-1880-1948/ Selfstudier (talk) 19:04, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * That deals with the population between 1922 and 1939, as opposed to the original which deals with the situation from 1914 to 1922. That author seems to be implying that Arabs from the Beersheba district largely migrated elsewhere in Palestine to predominantly Jewish-populatied areas. That's the main thrust of his argument, that economic development driven by Jews propelled Arab immigration and internal migration into areas heavily populated by Jews. BTW How reliable do you consider Moshe Aumann and that source in general? Some of the statistics he cites could potentially be used in this article.--RM (Be my friend) 19:12, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * If it is right then the 55000 of 1914 went up to 71000 in 1922, that's what I was looking at, to get a figure for the increase. That it went down again after is perhaps of interest, idk. I don't have any reason atm to doubt mjl, it's a biased source but doesn't mean the figures are wrong, maybe we could cross verify some of the data elsewhere and form a judgement like that.Selfstudier (talk) 19:31, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * "At the time of the 1922 census of Palestine, Beersheba had a population of 2,012 Muslims, 235 Christians, 98 Jews and 11 Druze (total 2,356)." according to Beersheba which is a bit odd.Selfstudier (talk) 19:37, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Because said estimates refer to the Beersheba district, so the area around Beersheba as defined by the authorities, not just the town itself. The Bedouin didn't exactly have the habit of living in cities and towns after all.--RM (Be my friend) 19:40, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * What I meant is that both of the figures are supposedly sourced to SoP? Then there must be some explanation in that, no?Selfstudier (talk) 19:42, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * The estimate of 2,500 or so likely refers to the actual town by itself, the estimate of 71k is likely for the wider area around the town.--RM (Be my friend) 19:46, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Well, it needs to be clarified because anyone reading the two articles would get confused in the absence of an explanation. I will dig out the SoP 1922 and see what it says.Selfstudier (talk) 19:48, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Table V of CoP 1922 gives Muslim pop of 74,910 for 1922 (subdisrict of Beersheba). The figures at Beersheba article exclude the tribal areas.Selfstudier (talk) 19:58, 20 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Just what I thought. Did the British calculate the area of the subdistrict the same way as the Ottomans or were these different areas? I imagine they weren't too far apart. BTW regardless of this there is some interesting info in this article, it talks about estimates of immigration at between 60k and 100k and cites a UNRWA report from 1962 as claiming there was a significant influx of unrecorded Arab immigration during World War II. All of potential use in this article.--RM (Be my friend) 20:10, 20 November 2021 (UTC)

Moshe Aumann wrote a junky propaganda article of the Joan Peters genre. It certainly can't be used as a source. It also isn't clear why a UNRWA article from 1962 is reliable for events before it was founded, and in any case Aumann can't be trusted on context. Zerotalk 03:56, 21 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Care to explain why? Alaexis¿question? 06:21, 21 November 2021 (UTC)
 * A single paragraph claimed by Aumann to be in a rare document is repeatedly copied by others. Aumann doesn't say it is an official statement of UNRWA but only that it is in a work published by UNRWA. So we don't know who the author is. Moreover, given that it is unlikely that a single paragraph on immigration sits in the middle of an article on other things, we need to see what surrounds it in order to know if Aumann cherry-picked it (in conformity with the polemic nature of his article). It could be that if we can find "UNRWA Review, Information Paper No. 6" ourselves it may be useful, but until then we only have an indirect report in an unreliable source. Besides that, the section of this article on unrecorded immigration is already embarrassingly long and we should be looking at ways to cut it down rather that pushing extra stuff into it. Zerotalk 06:37, 21 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Well, we obviously should check the citation for accuracy. I don't think that UNRWA reports are "[un]reliable for events before it was founded." It's not based on any Wikipedia policy. Alaexis¿question? 07:21, 21 November 2021 (UTC)
 * As far as I can make out, there were 6 "information papers", the a) to f) in the Introduction section here and it's title here is given as "Problem of the rectification of the UNRWA ration rolls" (see also the refs in http://cidbimena.desastres.hn/pdf/eng/doc2483/doc2483-12b.pdf). So we can go from there to see what it is all about.Selfstudier (talk) 11:10, 21 November 2021 (UTC)
 * Good find. The 6 papers were also published together. Frustratingly, my library catalogue lists two copies that are both marked "missing". Zerotalk 11:50, 21 November 2021 (UTC)
 * It's not readily obvious how the paper supports Aumann statement "During World War II, the Arab population influx mounted apace, as is attested by the UNRWA Review, Information Paper No. 6 (September 1962)". The paper instead seems to be about the financial problems caused by "extra" refugees getting onto UNRWA rolls and the need for repeated "rectifications" of the count from 49 through 62. Page 70 of this has info about this.Selfstudier (talk) 12:26, 21 November 2021 (UTC)

Arab immigration section
As tagged, it is longer than it deserves already. It is especially inappropriate to add more from Fred Gottheil, who is an economist who published in an online magazine. He already has two paragraphs, which is more than enough. As I showed above on this page, his work cannot be trusted. It happens that the three items here exist but none of them adds anything, just more of the same. And there is missing context. The quote from Jarvis was just a comment in a speech he made; how does that have weight? And we can learn a little about Jarvis from his next words: "He [the Arab] was glad that a stronger hand was being taken in Palestine. The Arab appreciated the strong hand and did not mind if it were a little ruthless." Should we quote that too? Zerotalk 03:46, 30 January 2022 (UTC)

In replacing Tesler by Gottheil, Tesler's scepticism is thereby removed, dramatically changing the tone of the paragraph. Gottheil's work is that used by Joan Peters and has been criticised high and low via that association. Zerotalk 04:04, 30 January 2022 (UTC)

What about Pagans : Romans, Idumeans, Ammonites
Just the fact that king Herod of Israel was an Idumean would show that there was not just Jews in the Palestinian region in the 1st century BC. Patrick.N.L (talk) 09:57, 6 April 2022 (UTC)
 * Agreed. There is also the question of the meaning of the word Ioudaioi back then – are we giving a population for those whose religion was Judaism, or those who came from Judea? We need a good source to explain this. Onceinawhile (talk) 12:31, 6 April 2022 (UTC)
 * I may be missing something but where exactly is it written that only Jews lived "in the Palestinian region in the 1st century BC"? In other words, what exactly do you propose to add or change? Alaexis¿question? 17:58, 6 April 2022 (UTC)

1917 deportations
The article 1917 Jaffa deportation also says that a large part of the population of Gaza was deported around the same time. We must avoid the suggestion that the Ottoman wartime deportations were somehow racially motivated, when there is no evidence to support this.

asked why the website of the Central Zionist Archives may not be considered WP:RS. The WZO is a political advocacy organization, so we have to be cautious using it. The specific article does not provide any secondary citations, nor does it have a disclosed author, so we have no ability to check it. The fact that the article does not mention the contemporary Gazan deportations is evidence of why caution is important. Onceinawhile (talk) 02:31, 19 February 2023 (UTC)

Right, WZO is not a reliable source for us. Also, as Reenem pointed out, the majority of the deportees remained in Palestine. The temporary deportation to Egypt in 1914 might get a mention but it needs a proper source. Zerotalk 03:41, 19 February 2023 (UTC)

The 1914 deportation of the Jaffa Jews: 'a little footnote of war'? mentions two major deportations (Jaffa and Tel Aviv?) and some minor ones. The sources/numbers for this period are all over the place (https://www.palquest.org/en/highlight/294/demography-and-palestine-question-i for some others). Selfstudier (talk) 08:06, 19 February 2023 (UTC)


 * Excellent, thanks. This is a much better source. Though disappointing that Prof Glenda Abramson didn’t make an effort to contextualize it. Onceinawhile (talk) 10:49, 19 February 2023 (UTC)
 * Some context here:
 * Onceinawhile (talk) 10:58, 19 February 2023 (UTC)
 * Might have known he would be involved. Selfstudier (talk) 11:16, 19 February 2023 (UTC)
 * Onceinawhile (talk) 10:58, 19 February 2023 (UTC)
 * Might have known he would be involved. Selfstudier (talk) 11:16, 19 February 2023 (UTC)

Converts
, thanks for expanding the article. Could it be that a "not" is missing somewhere in the following statement? I'm not sure I understand it now: Alaexis¿question? 20:50, 17 October 2023 (UTC)

1931 census data error
The table showing census data from the 1931 census swaps the number of Christians (91,398) with those of Jews (174,610); someone should correct it. cf  — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2A01:14:8063:5C60:F9C4:9C9A:FDF:D476 (talk) 12:38, 31 October 2023 (UTC)
 * Fixed, thanks. Zerotalk 13:37, 31 October 2023 (UTC)
 * Looks like the two numbers for 1931 got swapped again. 98.240.172.3 (talk) 18:12, 11 June 2024 (UTC)
 * Hmm. I just refreshed and now it's fixed.  Either you are awesomely fast or there is an old cache somewhere. 98.240.172.3 (talk) 18:17, 11 June 2024 (UTC)

Misspelling
Somewhere in the article, 'Eastern' is written as "Eastrn". I'm unable to edit the page though, as I don't possess the 'extended confirmed user access level'. Schutsheer des Vaderlands (talk) 20:51, 13 November 2023 (UTC)
 * Fixed, thanks. Zerotalk 00:58, 14 November 2023 (UTC)

New table
Your efforts are appreciated but I am feeling quite uncomfortable with the new table, especially the insertion of commentary which is pretty much original research. Notably, the comment of a "genocide of Jews" in 2nd century AD to explain why the numbers begin to dwindle, but the sudden Jewish jump to 35% by 1947 is given no context (illegal Jewish immigration maybe?). The new table has overshadowed the lede and now the Wikipedia article looks like an infograph from a personal blog website, especially with these religious symbols, including Allah in Arabic calligraphy for the Muslim population. I would be with improving the long-standing simple table, but these changes are not constructive. Makeandtoss (talk) 10:55, 15 December 2023 (UTC)
 * ܫܠܵܡܵܐ, السلام, שלום and hi! Thank you for the clear feedback! I understand your points and your concerns!


 * This is helpful to help get to an end result, a table, not necessarily the main table at the top, but a table that solves a frustration I personally had trying to understand the demographic changes over time in a summary way.


 * My goal would be to get to a table that clearly shows:
 * the population numbers and proportions by religion/group
 * concise descriptions of key events with major demographic impact
 * such events should be covered somewhere in Wikipedia
 * each based on and citing objective research/sources, free of any particular narrative or implication of a narrative :For example,
 * I would avoid the loaded word illegal unless absolutely relevant to the question of: did that group's population go up or down, and by how much?
 * Genocide is a heavy word too, but could be included if that's what the original source explicitly calls out. In that particular case it is disputed whether it was a genocide or not, so probably I should add some additional language to indicate clearly that that is the conclusion of one respected researcher.


 * 1. I understand that the bullets may give an impression of being original research, but they are actually only reductions of text from either further down in this article or from the article Jewish diaspora. I also included the names of the original researchers, as some of the figures and observations differ. Again, these are the same main sources that this and the Diaspora article quote. No additional research added.


 * 2 your point about the explanations being incomplete is completely on point, and I was worried about this. I intend to add further explanations (for example, the jump by 1947) while still keeping the main goal of this being an easy to read table of the changes in both numbers and proportions.


 * 3 I understand (now that I read your point) that the icon for Islam might be unwelcome for some readers. I just chose the icon as existed in Wikipedia. I think, better not to have icons as they may have secondary associations.


 * 4 I agree the table is not good taking up the space where the lede should be, so let me create this as a separate article, Timeline of the demographics of Palestine (region), welcome others' input or contributions, and as it develops we can see if and where it could go in this article.


 * 5 Lede-wise, there isn't much of one to speak of. A lede should summarize the entire article in a paragraph or two. I will add this to my list and plan to propose something as well.

—Keizers (talk) 17:44, 15 December 2023 (UTC)


 * Again, while I appreciate this enthusiasm, but please bear in mind an important point: Wikipedia reflects what sources have written and show; however, it seems, from what you just wrote, that you are conducting a research, not just merely reporting what researchers have found. Adding percentages to the numbers (which could be incomplete or misleading) would be original research. Adding commentary to explain demographic changes (such as a purported genocide in 2nd century AD; but there could be other factors to explain this including conversions, mass expulsion or otherwise) would be also original research. Makeandtoss (talk) 18:45, 15 December 2023 (UTC)
 * I understand... but again I only ever consolidated information from statements that were already made in Wikipedia, cited their sources and even added the surname of the person that made that conclusion in parentheses. You are absolutely right the 2nd century genocide theory is one researcher's conclusion, that of Joan E. Taylor, and it is quoted both in citation #18 in this article and at Jewish diaspora. I believe it should therefore be mentioned, but indeed it needs to be labelled at Taylor's theory. and not definitive. No number before the Ottoman census was very reliable or exact.
 * I'm not convinced about combining the numbers with the chronology in one table. I understand the reasoning, and if done well this could be great, helping the reader see both the main events and their impact. However the way it was done it didn't show a clear story, there were too many cells and numbers. Let's start by writing a nice narrative lede, and then we can think about what kind of table or inforgraphic would work best. Alaexis¿question? 19:33, 15 December 2023 (UTC)
 * Infographs can be manipulated to stress one aspect or another, tables show abstract numbers; the former is original research and shouldn't be on WP to be honest. Makeandtoss (talk) 20:07, 16 December 2023 (UTC)

1.25 million figure does not match source
I agree that infographic is not appropriate and I don't even know what that really would look like on Wikipedia. All I am trying to achieve is a table with numbers and next to it a summary of the major demographic drivers, always being a summary of information provided in full elsewhere in the article or on other Wiki articles. I have continued to work on my previous table, adding such drivers, at the link I provided above.

Leaving that aside for a moment, I have found some factual errors in the table that is currently on the article (the original table). It seems that DePergola published his table in 2001, but then there was an update in 2003, which I found in JSTOR and I was able to access via the Wikipedia library. I have a full copy saved on my personal Google drive here and the table is publicly accessible here. In the 2001 version, which is cited as the source, the total population of Palestine in the 1st c. was stated as 2.5 million. The 1.25 million currently in the table, does not correspond to any figure in the source article. So at a minimum, that figure should be updated to the correct one. However in 2003, DellaPergola changed the figure to "1,000–2,500", i.e. between 1 million and 2.5 million people total in Palestine at that time. I hesitate to go in and make that edit now, since we are having discussions about the other table.

Let me just re-emphasize that I have no intention of doing "original research" but rather, reviewing and summarizing current Wikipedia content and the respective sources, and in this case, I did happen do come across an updated version of the source material. Anything that does fall into original research, such as calculating percentages, I am grateful to be made aware of. I also thought about your mentioning my inclusion of the bullet point about possible genocide, and I did realize that it should not be included. That word does not tell you anything specific about the driving factor of how a population group's numbers were reduced - whereas if that happened through battle, or slaughter of civilians, etc. then the change in the numbers is linked to a specific event which can help explain the changes. So I will remove that word which is of course also emotionally loaded. Keizers (talk) 15:32, 17 December 2023 (UTC)

Meta analysis and other issues
Do we have any sources that have a meta analysis of the demographic history of Palestine, which would for example briefly mention: the demographics prior to Jewish majority in first century AD (paganism?); the shift to Christianity by 3rd century; and the eventual shift to Islam by 12th century. So that we can summarize the body without falling into the trap of original research?

Notably missing from the lede, and probably also the body, is mention of Arab history. This article seems to be focused on religious demographics [set forth first by British colonial authorities relying on divide and conquer strategies, and later adopted by historians unfortunately], completely ignoring that majority of Christians were Arabs by ethnicity and culture, and also Jews even.

In addition, there is a huge undue emphasis on trivial late Arab and Muslim immigration in the modern section, which does not reflect proportionately with rest of article. Makeandtoss (talk) 11:32, 27 December 2023 (UTC)


 * Agreed. The pre- first century AD information is entirely missing from the table and as mentioned, missing from the lede.
 * It seems that mention of Yahwism, Canaanite religion, Samaritanism, and other Ancient Semitic religion would be warranted. VeraqueVeritas (talk) 04:20, 4 January 2024 (UTC)
 * The table is based on one such meta-analysis made by Della Pergola. You're right that the religion is just one possible breakdown, and others can be just as legitimate. If there are scholars that have done a break-down by ethnicity, we should incorporate their findings too. Alaexis¿question? 19:02, 4 January 2024 (UTC)
 * Does Della have commentary or just the table? Makeandtoss (talk) 11:10, 5 January 2024 (UTC)
 * Is this article is missing the Ghassanids? Wafflefrites (talk) 15:16, 17 January 2024 (UTC)

Recent changes
@Yezhi283825, thanks for adding valuable information to the article. I've noticed that you removed some information that was supported by sources without explaining it in edit summaries (here, the paragraph starting from "The country underwent great prosperity" and here the paragraph starting from "While many Jews departed to thriving centers"). Was there a good reason for removing it? If not, please restore it. Alaexis¿question? 21:33, 1 January 2024 (UTC)


 * @Alaexis: Going to be adding further information regarding the Persian, Byzantine and Islamic periods, will make sure to re-add these. Yezhi283825 (talk) 10:54, 2 January 2024 (UTC)
 * Thanks! Alaexis¿question? 12:17, 2 January 2024 (UTC)

Late Ottoman period
Regarding this edit, I apologise for saying the information was removed without explanation - there were so many edits lately that I missed the right one.

Al-Marashi's article is still available but I don't think it's a good source as it only mentions the Bosniak migration in passing. However Grossman also deals with the Bosniaks, so I'd propose something along these lines

''Palestine experienced a few waves of immigration of Muslims from the lands lost by the Ottoman Empire in the 19th century. Algerians, Circassians and Bosnians were mostly settled on vacant land and unlike the Egyptians they did not alter the geography of settlement significantly.'' (Grossman, p. 73). Alaexis¿question? 08:00, 7 January 2024 (UTC)
 * That's fine, feel free. Zerotalk 08:16, 7 January 2024 (UTC)

Islamization
Why are we saying Islamization for adoption of Islam but not Canaanization, paganization, Judization or Christianization? Makeandtoss (talk) 09:59, 12 January 2024 (UTC)


 * It does have the Crusades and reversal of Islam under the Crusader, Ayyubid and Mamluk periods section Wafflefrites (talk) 15:19, 17 January 2024 (UTC)

wrong name
Alexander Schölch, not Scholch 2A02:8109:B6A2:5500:0:0:0:588F (talk) 16:54, 28 February 2024 (UTC)