Talk:Hockey stick graph (global temperature)

MWP
Although there was a Medieval Warm Period, the 3 top-right graphs do not show it in today's version. --Uncle Ed (talk) 23:16, 7 April 2013 (UTC)
 * The first graph doesn't show it because the reconstruction doesn't go back that far, the next three figures do show the MWP. Try reading the article. . . dave souza, talk 23:56, 7 April 2013 (UTC)

Missing images
Three of the images of climate graphs are currently missing though captions remain. Since the article is about a graph shape, missing images detract in a significant way. If the images are no longer available, text should be edited to remove the empty pictures.Rgdboer (talk) 23:06, 12 July 2013 (UTC)
 * Thanks for picking this up. I've replaced File:IPCC 2001 TAR Figure 2.20.png on commons, and substituted File:IPCC 2007 AR4 Figure 6.10 (b) (c).png for File:Records of Northern Hemisphere temperature variation during the last 1,300 years (NOAA, Jansen et al).png which appears to have gone missing for no apparent reason. File:Hockey stick chart ipcc large.jpg appeared to have been deleted in a move to commons, so will look at that again later. . dave souza, talk 06:35, 13 July 2013 (UTC)
 * Update: apparently the UN licence doesn't cover IPCC reports, so these files have been deleted from commons. Will reconsider how best to resolve this. . dave souza, talk 08:22, 15 July 2013 (UTC)

Proposed merge with List of large scale temperature reconstructions of the last 2,000 years
I proposed that we merge hockey stick graph with the article "List of...", and I was wondering if this proposal would meet with agreement or disagreement. Jinkinson (talk) 20:37, 6 September 2013 (UTC)


 * Bad idea: the list is linked from this article, from Temperature record of the past 1000 years, Michael E. Mann and Hockey stick controversy. In each it provides reference as to how many reconstructions there have been, and their significance, answering a common question. Some of the articles are already rather large, and it would not be sensible to merge this into all of them. dave souza, talk 21:17, 6 September 2013 (UTC)

But are we the cause?
The article points to an article listing Anthropogenic effects on the environment but nowhere are these specifically linked to the Hockey Stick. If this connection is made in a larger article, how does a reader coming in in the middle get back to the main argument? If the connection is purely by inference, where is this stated? Virgil H. Soule (talk) 17:19, 4 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Thanks for raising the point, I've linked Human impact on the environment at a couple of appropriate points in the text. The question of causes goes beyond this article, which deals with measuring the effects, so I've also linked Attribution of recent climate change. . . dave souza, talk 11:27, 11 July 2014 (UTC)

Tag about specialist writing
The following tag was added: Thing is, that's untrue. I did a lot of the writing in this, and I'm not a specialist: that may have contributed to any problems, but it's a genuine attempt to explain the complex issues involved. Perhaps worth asking for specialist input to improve the clarity? Certainly editing for clarification will be welcome, but a huge misconceived tag isn't a help: all it will do is deter non-experts from trying to read the article and get to grips with the topic. . . dave souza, talk 21:22, 21 August 2015 (UTC)

IPCC Figf 7.1(c) and Lamb discussion should be improved - 2 kinds of data
That's The caption is: "Red line: rescaled IPCC 1990 Figure 7.1(c), based on Lamb 1965 showing central England temperatures; compared to central England temperatures to 2007, as shown in Jones et al. 2009 (green dashed line).[15] Also shown, Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1998 40 year average used in IPCC TAR 2001 (blue), and Moberg et al. 2005 low frequency signal (black). IPCC 1990, Mann 1999 and Moberg 2005 data overlaid. (red) IPCC hand-digitised from IPCC 1990 figure 7.1c (note: it has been assumed that the tickmarks on the y axis are in units of °C and that the middle of the three represents zero). (blue) Mann from ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/jones2004/jonesmannrogfig5.txt en:National Climatic Data Center with en:National Centers for Environmental Information (black) Moberg from http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v433/n7026/suppinfo/nature03265.html en:Nature (journal) (green dashed line) Central England temperatures to 2007 overlaid from Jones et al. 2009 page 34 fig. 7. http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2009/2009_Jones_etal_2.pdf"

The main text says: "In 1965 Hubert Lamb, a pioneer of historical climatology, generalised from temperature records of central England by using historical, botanical and archeological evidence to popularise the idea of a Medieval Warm Period from around 900 to 1300"

See http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/01/26/medievaldeception-2015-inhofe-drags-senate-dark-ages (not RS, but has the links to relevant RS papers, and explanation in one place.) Jones et al (2009) Fig 7. shows that the Lamb curve before 1680ish was *estimated* for Central England, not from the Manley data, and "”The amount of extra warmth added during 1100–1350 was 0.3–0.4°C, or about 30% of the range in the black curve in Figure 7."

Anyway, it would be good to clarify the fact that the Lamb curve is actually 2 very different things, and that big MWP was estimated, and later shown to be too high by various studies. It is amusing that people criticize the hockey stick for showing both reconstruction and modern instrumental curve, while offering the Lamb curve, which does the same thing, but doesn't distinguish.JohnMashey (talk) 14:30, 11 October 2015 (UTC)

updated graphs available?
Aren't there any updated versions with data after the year 2000? For example, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/ has an updated graph for the recent century. (I am not sure about the copyright status.) Since 2000 the temperature has risen another ~ 0.2 degrees C or so, which would be a significant rise on the y-axis of the plots used in this article. --Nanite (talk) 11:04, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

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"Hockey Stick" was not invented by climate researchers
I'm not going to dive into the political morass of this article, but don't want to leave standing the assertion that the phrase was "coined" by climatologists. "hockey stick" as a description of a growth curve is an old term from finance, economics, and science, in particular in public affairs. the oldest use i've found so far is 1935, but there are multiple published uses of the term (as describing a particular type of growth curve) from the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, all predating the 1998 article in question. If you don't believe me, just do a simple Google Books search with a date limiter of being before 1998. This article is thus very poor from WikiPedia standards - it should have a generic description of what a HS graph is, with a separate reference to it's use in climatology. For now, I changed "coined" to "popularized", as i think it's fair to say that the use of the term by climatologists is what made the general (older) phrase broadly known. Psm (talk) 21:55, 13 August 2017 (UTC)


 * In short, you want the article to be about another subject: about every curve that is shaped like this. At the moment, the subject is the Hockey stick graph from climatology. So, other disciplines used the term earlier. That does not mean this article has to be the way you want it, it only means that the fact should be mentioned, and possibly new articles made and linked from here. --Hob Gadling (talk) 06:48, 14 August 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, a simple Google Books search isn't a reliable source. Please find a suitable source covering this point so that coverage can be added. . . dave souza, talk 17:55, 16 September 2017 (UTC)


 * Actually I think Psm has a point. I ran across the same thing yesterday and very nearly added a section to the article. There's no particular reason to restrict "HS" to climate, just because that's what we happen to be familiar with. The obvious thing to do is create a page for the more generic meaning, and add a std "HS redirects here; for blah see wibble" William M. Connolley (talk) 19:00, 16 September 2017 (UTC)
 * You wants it, you fix it! Taking PM's suggestion, hockey stick growth curve throws up some examples: A call from the 21st century back to ye olde daze of 1997, and, more excitingly, Black lace and hockey-stick growth curves! from 1996. But these are mere examples of usage, it would be better to have a source defining the topic. . dave souza, talk 19:36, 16 September 2017 (UTC)
 * I fixed it by moving, and making a new article at Hockey stick graph for the older and more general topic. Dicklyon (talk) 05:24, 17 August 2022 (UTC)

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External links modified (January 2018)
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"Torontonian businessman"
In a slow-motion edit war, has been repeatedly adding text describing Stephen McIntyre as a "Torontonian businessman" and "mathematician", which has been reverted each time, by four different editors, including myself. I've urged the editor to open a discussion, but the editor hasn't done this, and instead persists in adding the text back, reverting the reverts. In hopes of avoiding having an administrator initiate blocking, I've started this discussion for the editor.

, please just explain in this thread how your edit improves the article for the readers. (Please try to avoid mentioning anything about other editors, as that has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of the text you want to add; besides, you are unlikely to get any agreement from people you antagonize.) --A&#8239;D&#8239;Monroe&#8239;III(talk)  00:30, 14 February 2020 (UTC)

Lead is long
It should be shortened for readability. Snooganssnoogans (talk) 19:21, 22 July 2020 (UTC)

Bias
I find this article highly biased. What is the probability that all criticisms of the Hockey stick graph are wrong? In this article, 100% of the criticisms are wrong. This is extremely hard to believe. Bhiker (talk) 03:45, 17 September 2023 (UTC)


 * Case in point:
 * Mann and coauthors mistakenly stated that they used two tree-ring principal components for their MBH98 temperature reconstruction, when in fact they used six PCs. This error was reported in a somewhat recent (2021) README file in a MBH98 file repository on Pennsylvania State University's website.
 * I corrected the article but it was swiftly reverted back to its current incorrect state because apparently a README file can't be a reliable source. Blues6162 (talk) 18:58, 15 June 2024 (UTC)