Talk:Hurricane Willa/GAN Prep/New Info

Hurricane Willa was the fifth costliest Pacific hurricane on record, as well as the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the Mexican state of Sinaloa since Lane in 2006. The twenty-fifth tropical cyclone, twenty-second named storm, thirteenth hurricane, tenth major hurricane, and record-tying third Category 5 hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, Willa originated from a tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) first began monitoring for tropical cyclogenesis in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, on October 14. The system subsequently crossed over Central America into the East Pacific, without significant organization. The NHC continued to track the disturbance until it developed into a tropical depression on October 20, off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Later in the day, the system became a tropical storm as it began to rapidly intensify. On October 21, Willa became a Category 4 major hurricane, before strengthening further to Category 5 intensity on the next day. Afterward, a combination of an eyewall replacement cycle and increasing wind shear weakened the hurricane, and early on October 24, Willa made landfall as a marginal Category 3 hurricane, in Sinaloa of the northwestern Mexico. Following landfall, Willa rapidly weakened, dissipating later on the same day over northeastern Mexico.

Up to its landfall, Willa prompted the issuance of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for western Mexico. The hurricane killed six people, and caused $825 million (2018 USD) in damages, mostly around the area where it moved ashore.

Meteorological history
Willa's origins can be traced back to a tropical wave that departed from the west coast of Africa on October 2. Over the next few days, the wave produced intermittent bursts of deep convection near a well-defined mid-level circulation center; however, the convection was soon sheared away by strong vertical wind shear from the west and southwest as the system traveled westward at a speed between 15-20 kn. On October 14, the NHC began monitoring the wave for tropical development while it was located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. On the next day, the system became better organized southeast of the Yucatán Peninsula, and the storm encountered more favorable conditions as it neared land; a Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to survey the system for further development. However, organization was hindered as the system quickly made landfall in Belize on the next day. The tropical wave moved into the East Pacific early on October 17 and quickly organized; however, the system failed to coalesce into a tropical cyclone and became increasingly disorganized and elongated on the next day. A new low-pressure trough developed to the east of the original low early on October 19, which organized into Tropical Storm Vicente later that day. The original low to the west gradually organized while moving westward, and at 00:00 UTC on October 20, the system developed into a tropical depression while located approximately 265 mi (425 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Banding features began to develop south of the center and that the system had very cold cloud top temperatures of -85 to -91 C. The system then developed a tight inner core, strengthening into a tropical storm around 12:00 UTC, while located about 290 mi (465 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo.

Soon after its genesis, Willa began to rapidly intensify, with its low-level center becoming embedded beneath a central dense overcast. At the same time, Willa turned towards the northwest as it began traveling around the western edge of a mid-level ridge. Environmental conditions under the cyclone and aloft were favorable, with very low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and sea surface temperatures of 29 C. Willa strengthened into a hurricane around 06:00 UTC on October 21, as it developed an intermittent pinhole eye in the center of its convection as outflow became well-established. Willa reached Category 3 status by 18:00 UTC, with its eye becoming well-defined on both infrared and satellite imagery, making it the tenth major hurricane of the season. Willa peaked as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central pressure of 925 mbar at approximately 06:00 UTC on October 22, while located about 195 mi (315 km) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. In the preceding 48-hour time period, Willa's winds increased by 125 mph (205 km/h), bringing the storm from a tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane. Over the next few days, Willa recurved towards Mexico; the system turned to the north as it rounded the edge of the ridge and later to the northeast due to an approaching mid-to-upper-level trough.

Shortly after Willa reached peak intensity, microwave satellite imagery detected the presence of an outer eyewall, indicating that Willa was beginning to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. Willa also began to interact with the smaller Tropical Storm Vicente to the southeast at about this time. Despite a favorable environment, Willa began to weaken due to the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle, with the storm's eye becoming cloud-filled. Willa weakened to Category 3 on October 23 at 06:00 UTC, as southwesterly wind shear increased. The weakening trend abated as the eyewall replacement cycle ended. Willa's eye passed over Isla San Jaunito and Isla María Madre at approximately 17:45 UTC, with 15-minute sustained winds of 77 kn and gusts of 97 kn being reported at the Isla María Madre airport. The system made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Palmito del Verde, Sinaloa, at 01:20 UTC on October 24 (7:20 pm on October 23, local time), with 1-minute sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 968 mbar. Willa's eye soon faded away on satellite imagery. Following landfall, mountainous terrain and southwesterly wind shear took a toll on the storm's strength, and Willa rapidly weakened, degenerating into a tropical storm by 06:00 UTC. Six hours later, Willa dissipated over northeastern Mexico, with the mid- and upper-level circulations decoupling from the lower-level circulation. The remnants of Willa continued to travel northeastward, bringing rain to multiple states in the United States. Energy from the remnants contributed to the formation of a nor'easter in the eastern United States.

Preparations
The Government of Mexico issued a hurricane watch on October 21 at 15:00 UTC for the western coast of Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlán, and a tropical storm watch from Playa Perula to San Blas. A tropical storm watch was issued for Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya at 21:00 UTC. The hurricane watch and tropical storm watches were replaced with warnings at 03:00 UTC on October 22. All warnings were discontinued at 06:00 UTC on October 24, after Willa weakened to a tropical storm over Durango.

Various weather-related alerts were issued as Willa approached Mexico's Pacific coast. Red alerts, indicative of the maximum level of danger, were issued for portions of Nayarit and Sinaloa in Willa's direct path. In Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco and central Sinaloa, orange alerts were issued due to high danger. A majority of Chihuahua was under a yellow alert, meaning moderate danger, due to the threat of heavy rainfall. A green alert, signaling minimal danger, was issued for Baja California Sur as a precautionary measure due to waves along the coast. The Mexican Secretariat of the Navy activated the Prevention Phase of the Marine Plan in the Mexican states of Sonora, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán. Small vessels were restricted in the ports of Comondú, La Paz, and Los Cabos as well as in the Gulf of California and Sea of Cortez. Classes were canceled in the Sinaloan municipalities of Mazatlán, Rosario, San Ignacio, Elota, Escuinapa, Cosalá and Concordia. Schools were also closed along the northern and southern coasts of Jalisco. Thirty neighborhoods in the Mazatlán Municipality were evacuated due to the risk of flooding. Emergency authorities evicted over 4,250 people in costal cities from their homes and established 58 shelters before the storm hit. In Jalisco, 2,500 people were evacuated ahead of Willa and 23 temporary shelters were established. At least 6,000 people were evacuated from Escuinapa due to the proximity of Willa. Fonden, Mexico's natural disaster relief agency, allocated 90 tonnes of food for affected people in advance of Willa's landfall. The Mexican Navy set up a collection center for food and supplies in La Paz, Baja California Sur in the hours before the storm.

Vicente and Willa together forced the Norwegian Bliss cruise ship to divert to San Diego, California on October 23. Despite the threat that Willa posed, Petróleos Mexicanos announced that it intended to maintain normal operations in Jalisco, Nayarit, Colima, Sonora and Sinaloa. All economic activity and public transportation were suspended in Sinaloa as a precaution. Roads and businesses were closed in Nayarit, with officials requesting that citizens remain in their homes. In order to prevent damage to water pumping equipment during the storm, service was shut off on October 23 to 27 neighborhoods in Tepic, Nayarit.

Mexico
The eye of Hurricane Willa crossed over two of the offshore Islas Marías, producing wind gusts of 179 km/h (112 mph), and average sustained winds of 142 km/h (89 mph) for a 15 minute period; the latter value equated to 1 minute sustained winds of around 160 km/h (100 mph). On the Mexican mainland, storm chasers from iCyclone reported a minimum pressure of 968 mbar where Willa's eye moved ashore, suggesting a landfall intensity of 185 km/h (115 mph). Willa produced hurricane-force wind gusts in the immediate vicinity of where it moved ashore, as well as high waves and a significant storm surge. The storm also dropped heavy rainfall in six Mexican states – Colima, Durango, Jalisco, Michoacán, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. Willa dropped heavy rainfall in western Mexico, peaking at 15.39 in in San Andrés Milpillas in northern Nayarit. Cihuatlán in western Jalisco reported 13.17 in of rainfall.

The storm left 96,200 people without power in four states: Sinaloa, where it moved ashore, as well as Nayarit, Durango, and Michoacán.

Sinaloa
Hurricane Willa's landfall in Sinaloa left two municipalities isolated – Escuinapa and Rosario. High winds damaged homes and knocked down trees, which blocked roads. In Escuinapa, the storm damaged the general hospital, causing part of the roof and walls to collapse. Soldiers evacuated a total of 35 patients from the hospital. The city also experienced power outages and had no potable water. Damage in the city was estimated at MX$6 billion (US$306 million). The Trébol II community dam was damaged as a result of floodwaters from Willa. Willa severely damaged 72 schools in Escuinapa and 19 in Rosario. Power lines were knocked down along a road to Tecapan, causing the entire town to lose power. In El Rosario, the Baluarte River rapidly rose after at least 188 mm of rain fell, sweeping away stone extraction machinery and transportation trucks. The destruction of infrastructure left multiple communities in El Rosario without drinking water and at least 53 km of unusable roads. The river flood also damaged approximately 3,000 ha of crops in Rosario. In Mazatlan, rockslides and flooding of the Camarón lagoon occurred. Approximately 17,000 ha of crops were damaged in the municipalities of Ahome, El Fuerte, Sinaloa de Leyva, Angostura, Salvador Alvarado, Navolato, and Culiacán.

Nayarit
In the state of Nayarit, heavy rain from Willa led to severe flooding along the San Pedro River and the Acaponeta River that affected 180,000 people. Four people drowned along the San Pedro River – three in Huajicori, and one in San Vicente in Tuxpan. Across the state, about 100,000 people were made homeless by the hurricane. As both rivers crested more than 11 m above normal, the municipalities of Tecuala, Acaponeta, Tuxpan, San Blas, and Huajicori were evacuated, while a state of emergency was declared for 12 municipalities. A total of 12,000 people were forced into shelters. Total damage in the state was estimated to be at least MX$10 billion (US$510 million).

In Tuxpan, the overflow of the San Pedro River caused sewage leaks. Three out of four of the municipality's public schools suffered major flood damage; another 42 schools in the state of Nayarit experienced considerable damage. The municipal government lost two tons of food aid after the warehouse the food was stored in was flooded. Firefighters worked overnight to rescue people trapped on their roofs. Acaponeta was similarly severely impacted as record-breaking flooding occurred along the Acaponeta River, with a flood crest of 12.20 m and peak discharge of 17,000 m3/s recorded. Several vehicles were trapped by floodwaters along Mexican Federal Highway 68, particularly at the Acaponeta toll booth. Civil Protection and Mexican Navy personnel conducted at least 80 land and water rescues. Flooding also forced the closure of Mexican Federal Highway 15D between Acaponeta and La Guásima. Elsewhere in Nayarit, a hydro-agricultural system in the northern part of the state was damaged, resulting in MX$700 million (US$35.7 million) in losses.

Elsewhere
Willa brought heavy rains and flooding to parts of Michoacán. In the state's capital, Morelia, 40 neighborhoods were inundated and the Cointzio Dam reached 98% capacity. Three shelters were set up to house affected residents. Damage in Morelia was estimated at MX$35 million (US$1.79 million), In Atapaneo, Willa caused a train derailment that injured two people.

Heavy rains also fell in Durango, where at least five towns were flooded. Landslides in Pueblo Nuevo municipality damaged 35 homes across 10 rural communities. The Durango-Mazatlán highway was partially closed from October 23–24. Schools across the state were also canceled until October 25. Losses in Lerdo, Durango reached about MX$140 million (US$7.14 million). A total of 200 people were evacuated from the area surrounding the Santa Elena dam due to overflowing water.

Heavy rainfall killed two more people in Nogales, Sonora, where floods also swept away cars and entered homes and businesses.

Due to the unsettled weather produced by Willa and the nearby Tropical Storm Vicente, numerous oil tankers were unable to unload fuel at ports in Manzanillo and Tuxpan. Combined with the closure of a major pipeline that transports petroleum to Guadalajara, this caused a fuel shortage in Jalisco, with some 500 gas stations being affected. At least a dozen houses in Punta Pérula were flooded with up to 60 cm of water. Strong waves occurred off the coast of Puerto Vallarta; landslides and fallen trees were also reported there.

United States
On October 24, the remnants of Hurricane Willa brought heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to Texas and Louisiana. Rainfall reached 4.9 in at the Scholes International Airport at Galveston. The area had already been saturated from excessive rainfall within the past month. A Flash Flood Warning was issued for Galveston County, in southeastern Texas.

Aftermath
After Willa moved ashore in southwestern Mexico, Mexican officials in Nayarit sent 76 vehicles with medical supplies to reach the most affected residents in the northern part of the state. For one week, officials made Mexican Federal Highway 15D – a toll road – free of charge, and instead collected more than MX$1.1 million (US$57,000) in donations for the residents left homeless by the hurricane. The office of the Attorney General of the Republic sent 11 tonnes of food as well as four doctors and 500 kg of medicine to Sinaloa and Nayarit. Save the Children sent 800 hygiene kits to children in Nayarit. They also were operating 17 dining facilities for nearly 3,000 children, but were forced to close four located in Isla del Bosque, Escuinapa, and Teacapán due to power outages. The Government of Mexico City established a collection center for food, cleaning products, and hygiene products; this center was located in Mexico City's Pushkin Garden. The National System for Integral Family Development (DIF) sent 1,600 tons of aid, including pantries, galvanized sheet metal, and bottled water, to areas affected by Willa. The Mexican Red Cross sent 44,000 tonnes of supplies to Nayarit and Sinaloa; the aid delivered to Nayarit pantries consisted of 18,000 tonnes, including a thousand hygiene kits. Approximately 26,000 tonnes of goods were sent to Sinaloa pantries. Additionally, collection centers were opened in Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, and Guanajuato.

Mexican authorities sent 45,000 people to assist with relief efforts. Included in this group were soldiers, sailors, doctors, and nurses. Plan DN-III-E was activated in the states of Sinaloa, Durango, Nayarit, Colima, and Jalisco. About 11,000 soldiers were deployed in the municipalities of Mazatlan, Escuinapa, El Rosario, La Cruz de Elota, and Culiacán in Sinaloa to help with transporting civilians to four shelters. There, approximately 1,820 people were provided with 1,400 food rations. Soldiers also worked to repair window damage at the Teacapan Hospital as well as remove trees from roads. Around 590 soldiers were deployed in Durango. In Colima, 262 soldiers were deployed to monitor the level of the Marabasco River. One hundred and eighteen soldiers evacuated 154 people in the cities of Puerto Vallarta, Tomatlán, and Melaque in Jalisco. The Marine Plan was activated in Sinaloa and Nayarit, resulting in the dispatch of 1,800 soldiers, 163 vehicles, 8 aircraft, 15 surface units, 6 ships, and 3 mobile kitchens. Around 178 people were evacuated from Cristo Rey and El Rosario in Escuinapa. Soldiers distributed 500 food portions using a mobile kitchen in the Nayarit municipality of Tecuala.

Sinaloa Governor Quirino Ordaz Coppel declared a state of emergency for seven municipalities. Diego Maradona, then coach of the Dorados de Sinaloa, hosted a charity dinner on November 5 to provide financial support for individuals affected by Willa and Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. In Nayarit, the National Civil Protection Coordination designated the municipalities of Tecuala, Acaponeta, Huajicori, Rosamorada, Santiago Ixcuintla, Tuxpan, Del Nayar and Ruiz as disaster areas. In the Escuinapa Municipality in Sinaloa, it was reported that over 2,000 families were living under plastic rooves six months after the storm. Additionally, Mayor Emmet Soto Grave stated that there were many irregularities in the damage reported by the previous government. In total, 144 houses had been counted from October 23–28, while more than 2,000 were actually affected. After President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had federal officials visit the city, more inaccuracies regarding damage to roads, educational institutions, and areas of tourism were discovered. Around the same time, the National Water Commission reported that the Baluarte River had seen a major increase in chromium, mercury, and nickel concentrations a month after the storm. Throughout the region, mango orchards were severely damaged by wind gusts from Willa, resulting in a 50–75% decrease in production. This decrease equated to a loss of about 70,000 tonnes or 13,300 ha of mango. At least 1,200 farmers required loans due to significant losses. The mayor of Mazatlan sent 60 workers, two cranes, and three dump trucks to Escuinapa. Several months after the storm, the communities of Maloya and Buenavista in El Rosario were mostly without potable water.

Those affected by Willa in Nayarit said they felt "abandoned by the authorities" after only receiving help from disaster organizations for the month and a half following the storm. Schools in Tuxpan did not have classes during that time as the facilities were unusable. The community of Los Sandovales in the Acaponeta Municipality was destroyed, resulting in many of the families there becoming homeless. In Sinaloa, people used their own funds to rebuild their homes due to lack of resources from Fonden. The state delivered MX$2 million (US$100,651) worth of rotten mattresses to victims and allowed them access to pantries in exchange for support letters. However, support ranging between MX$1,800–10,000 (US$91–$503) was provided to small businesses. A Sinaloan state official said that it could take three years for Fonden to allocate funds for repairs. Fonden had authorized a total of MX$84.7 million (US$4.3 million) to cover damage resulting from Willa, however, no repair work had commenced in the months after the storm and the whereabouts of the funds were unknown. A few days after President López Obrador visited Sinaloa, Fonden allotted MX$510 million (US$23.9 million) for damage in Escuinapa and El Rosario.