Talk:Metaculus

Metaculus
Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.

Reward system
Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions. Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users. Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.

Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress. The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.

History
Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.

In June 2017, the Metaculus prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user's predictions. The Metaculus prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.

Acceptance Note
This appears to be marginally notable. Robert McClenon (talk) 21:47, 4 May 2019 (UTC)


 * I tried to collect sources where Metaculus was mentioned:
 * - Nature News: https://www.nature.com/articles/538308a
 * - Independent (UK): https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-super-forecasters-putin-troops-1475721
 * - Cited in academic research, e.g. "These features emulated typical forecasting platforms (for example, metaculus.com)." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01517-1
 * - National Defense Magazine https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/12/15/modernizing-defense-through-crowdsourcing
 * - Our World In Data Blog: https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines
 * - Coindesk: https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/04/forecasting-prediction-markets-and-the-age-of-better-information/
 * - Vox: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/4/5/18290870/forecasting-tetlock-prediction-markets-betting, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/8/21210193/coronavirus-forecasting-models-predictions
 * - Quartz: https://qz.com/2069284/facebook-is-shutting-down-its-experimental-app-forecast (useful for locating related topics/sites)
 * - HBR: https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is AncientWalrus (talk) 19:15, 14 May 2023 (UTC)
 * Missed this one https://time.com/5848271/superforecasters-covid-19/ AncientWalrus (talk) 19:17, 14 May 2023 (UTC)

Double Reference
The reference "Metaculus Track Record" seems to be repeated, but I can't edit this out. Maybe somebody who knows the markup better can do something about this.

Pranomostro (talk) 21:04, 13 May 2019 (UTC)

A Serious Man?
Wasn't that the book from the movie A Serious Man? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Longinus876 (talk • contribs) 01:24, 29 October 2019 (UTC)