Talk:Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

Who Funds Polls?
Should this article identify who commissioned and paid for each poll? Sometimes this information is related to the results (Democratic-funded polls are statistically more likely to show favorable results for Democrats and Republican-funded polls more likely to show favorable reports for Republicans), as well as to which candidates get included in the polls and which candidates do not.

Candidate Missing
Why isn't Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver listed anywhere in this article? Are all the polls really failing to include him, or is the article missing the polls that do? Perhaps there should be an introductory paragraph talking about who's actually running, versus who gets included in the polls, and why (e.g. campaigns with lots of money paying for the polls). — Preceding unsigned comment added by StarchildSF (talk • contribs) 01:06, 22 July 2024 (UTC)


 * Here is one poll I found without too much trouble which has a question that does include Chase Oliver, along with fellow independent candidates RFK Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West:
 * https://law.marquette.edu/poll/
 * Can someone good with formatting changes add this to the article? Starchild (talk) 02:06, 22 July 2024 (UTC)

Broken Sources
Both external links are broken/lead to dead ends, can they be replaced?

2600:100B:B1C0:465D:1D5D:6243:622E:3864 (talk) 01:46, 10 May 2023 (UTC)
 * . --Spiffy sperry (talk) 15:46, 10 May 2023 (UTC)
 * @Spiffy sperry OK, thank you! 2600:100B:B1C0:4BEF:B429:489:EA9D:B13D (talk) 17:36, 11 May 2023 (UTC)

Polling with RFK Jr. and Asa Hutchison?
Out of the polling in the article, there still aren't any polls posted that polled respondants over RFK Jr. or Asa Hutchison, maybe Vivek and Elder but I'll have to double check.

If there are polls with these candidates out there already and can be added, can they?

If there's not, can they be added upon sight? 2600:100B:B1C0:4BEF:B429:489:EA9D:B13D (talk) 17:40, 11 May 2023 (UTC)

Need polling update
Please update the polling with new polling. Thank you. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 158.140.170.68 (talk) 16:47, 15 June 2023 (UTC)

ALSO - PLS CAN HEAD-TO-HEAD OF BIDEN vs. HALEY BE UPDATED? THERE'S PLENTY OF POLLS TO ADD BUT FOR SOME REASON ONLY BIDEN vs. TRUMP HAS BEEN UPDATED RECENTLY. THIS MAKES IT HARD FOR ANYONE TO VERIFY OR OTHERWISE, THE CLAIMS OF A CANDIDATE TO BE MORE LIKELY TO BEAT JOE BIDEN IN NOVEMBER AS THEY CAN'T COMPARE THE TWO FOR THE SAME POLLING PERIOD. THANK YOU!

LINK TO WHERE IT NEEDS UPDATING: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#Joe_Biden_vs._Nikki_Haley_2 — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2A00:23C7:C96:A701:E067:1374:84A3:D665 (talk) 08:07, 10 February 2024 (UTC)

Graph?
Would it be possible and make sense to make and add a graph visualizing poll results over time? Niokog (talk) 10:19, 29 November 2023 (UTC)
 * So if you go back to the 2020 pages, the graphs are all currently broken because of a bug: https://phabricator.wikimedia.org/T334940. Apparently there is a fix being worked on right now but there seems to be a stopgap measure on the republican primary page of occasionally updating an image. I imagine that once the situation gets clearer we will know how to progress with polls but my understanding is that temporarily graphs are in limbo right now. Przemysl15 (talk) 21:58, 29 November 2023 (UTC)
 * Would it make sense to make a time series figure that don't rely on any sensitive machinery? The article is quite useless without the figure IMHO. 82.147.226.185 (talk) 08:57, 7 March 2024 (UTC)
 * @Niokog as others have said, the inbuilt wiki graphs are broken. However, a lot of other election pages use static local regression graphs - do you think that would be good? Quinby  ( talk ) 09:04, 20 March 2024 (UTC)
 * @Quinnnnnby I think if the inbuilt graphs are broken, then a static local regression graph sounds like the next best thing, as it would complement the table just as well. If you can make one, go ahead. :) Niokog (talk) 09:57, 20 March 2024 (UTC)
 * How's this? 2024 United States presidential election (Trump-Biden) polling.svg Quinby  ( talk ) 11:33, 20 March 2024 (UTC)
 * It looks good. Perhaps it would be even better to add others/undecided as an additional line (e.g. gray). Niokog (talk) 10:39, 21 March 2024 (UTC)
 * @Niokog I considered it, but the problem is that undecided and other are merged, while in most countries they are not. I would be happy to put other on a line, but when some pollsters remove the undecideds and others dont, it throws off the graph and the lines. It would mean some pollsters could throw off the average and nothing would be standardised. Unless there's a way to separate out the others and undecideds, I don't see how it would be possible. Quinby  ( talk ) 10:54, 21 March 2024 (UTC)
 * Sounds great - and really glad to see a chart, it would be very useful for everyone.
 * I'd suggest you put this at the top - common in polling for other countries' elections - and put the polling aggregator sections below the main list of national polls. BarrySpinno (talk) 15:14, 31 March 2024 (UTC)
 * Hello. Which tool du you use to make such nice graphs? Valmontin (talk) 14:50, 17 April 2024 (UTC)
 * @Valmontin I use the program R Quinby  ( talk ) 18:54, 17 April 2024 (UTC)

Polling by Demographic
I was just thinking if they have polling based on Demographics we should add them to this page, just like they had polling based on Demographics in the 2016 election.Muaza Husni (talk) 10:31, 13 January 2024 (UTC) ???? Can somebody start posting those polling numbers on the page.Muaza Husni (talk) 08:01, 7 April 2024 (UTC)

Removed RealClearPolitics from 3 and 4 way races
RCP has not updated their 4-way race polls since November. Their 3-way race lists only one March poll, where The Hill has 20. In addition, the 2-way and 5-way charts (which are being updated) link to one another but not to the 3 and 4 way races. This implies RCP has abandoned maintenance on these pages and we should not be using them.  GreatCaesarsGhost   13:43, 1 April 2024 (UTC)

Rearranged sections
I rearranged the sections so they're in a nice cascading order:


 * Biden-Trump
 * Biden-Trump-Kennedy
 * Biden-Trump-Kennedy-West
 * Biden-Trump-Kennedy-West-Stein

The previous order made no sense whatsoever. Woko Sapien (talk) 17:15, 9 April 2024 (UTC)


 * I think the polls including all the candidates should be listed before those which give a false impression of the race by failing to include some of those who will be on voters' ballots. Starchild (talk) 02:09, 22 July 2024 (UTC)

Remove Harris v Trump
I'm not sure why we ever had one of the many hypothetical matchups listed among the actual contest. But Trump and Biden are now the presumptive nominees and Harris is not running.  GreatCaesarsGhost   20:22, 24 April 2024 (UTC)


 * I vote that we remove the Harris-Trump polling table. It's purely hypothetical at this point and the sources used don't appear to be actively updating those match-ups anymore.
 * While we're on the subject, is there any value to keeping the Biden-Trump-Kennedy-West table separate from the B-T-K-W-Stein table? It looks like Race to the WH uses the same numbers for both match-ups now under "National + 3rd Party" with Stein included in the line graph, but not the bar graph. Woko Sapien (talk) 16:18, 25 April 2024 (UTC)
 * I concur, with the obvious caveat that we can revisit this subject as aggregators change their behavior, or new aggregators emerge.   GreatCaesarsGhost   17:31, 25 April 2024 (UTC)
 * Makes sense to me! Woko Sapien (talk) 19:00, 25 April 2024 (UTC)

Electoral college polls?
Aren't there any hypothetical electoral college results based on opinion polls yet? I don't see where we have these covered in Wikipedia.

The overall percentages of support only have a loose statistical relation to the likely electoral college results. For example, if Californian support for Biden jumped up by 20% (and nothing else changed), then the US-wide support for Biden would jump up by about 2%, but the electoral college result would be unaffected. Boud (talk) 17:10, 1 June 2024 (UTC)


 * I think that 2024 United States presidential election is basically what you are describing. The bottom row of that table shows six hypothetical electoral college results.  --Spiffy sperry (talk) 00:47, 2 June 2024 (UTC)


 * Thanks, that's exactly what I was looking for. I clarified the wording to make it clearer and easier to find. Boud (talk) 19:27, 2 June 2024 (UTC)

Michelle Obama
Hello.

I found the following highly relevant information, and would greatly appreciate if it can be incorporated into the article in an appropriately structured manner. Thanks in advance for any help.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos public opinion poll among 892 registered voters released on July 2, 2024, Michelle Obama was the only listed Democrat option who would defeat Trump in a confrontation, with 50% of the votes for Obama versus 39% for Trump. 55% of the voters also had a favourable view of Obama versus 42% toward Trump.

David A (talk) 05:45, 5 July 2024 (UTC)