Talk:Next Irish general election

Infobox
Do we need an infobox that takes up half the article? This is contrary to the point of infoboxes, as per MOS:INFOBOX. Why don't we leave it out for now, or use something more compact. Bondegezou (talk) 10:30, 3 March 2020 (UTC)
 * I agree. How about something like what is being used now in the Next United Kingdom general election? Then switch back to the current format when the election is called? Spleodrach (talk) 20:37, 3 March 2020 (UTC)
 * Yes, that's a lot neater. I'll amend to that format in the morning, if nobody beats me to it. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 23:22, 3 March 2020 (UTC)

Include or leave out I4C
has removed Independents 4 Change from the opinion poll table (and incorporated their general election result in with Others/Independents). I4C have not been specifically mentioned in any of the reports on polls since the election, but they had one TD returned in the 2020 election and they are a registered political party. Do we include them in the table, or not? What would the basis for excluding them be? Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 12:04, 12 April 2020 (UTC)
 * They are a registered political party with 1 TD, but if they are not mentioned in the polls, then why have a column which will not have any figures in it? So I would not inculde them, but no strong objection to them being included either. Spleodrach (talk) 12:43, 13 April 2020 (UTC)
 * Just to point out that their last TD has a new banner Right To Change since May 2020. I think that is that for I4C. Wikimucker (talk) 17:19, 16 December 2020 (UTC)

Irish Mail on Sunday and opinion polls
The Irish Mail on Sunday is not the UK Mail on Sunday, but may be considered to come under the same RFC that has deemed the UK Daily Mail to not be a reliable source. However, in Ireland, the Irish Mail on Sunday commissions opinion polls from the "Ireland Thinks" polling company. These have thus far been reported on in this article, with the inclusions cited to third-party sources (i.e., not the Mail). Should the Irish Mail on Sunday polls be included in this article; or not? (These polls had been included in the Opinion polling for the 2020 Irish general election article until also removed yesterday by . Thoughts? Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 18:10, 9 September 2020 (UTC)
 * The sources that were removed were the Journal quoting the "Irish Mail on Sunday" and by Filip van Laenen quoting a Mail on Sunday; presumably again the Irish one. The discussion quoted by for the removal needs further expansion itself, and is entirely UK based. But, and i quote, "The UK Daily Mail is not to be confused with other publications named Daily Mail". The UK Daily Mail. Arnkellow (talk) 20:38, 9 September 2020 (UTC)
 * And just to clarify, it is the same parent group, but a different editorial and journalistic teams. Also as the RFC states UK, I would hope that a casual bit of anti-Irish racism and lumping together didn't happen as per WP:AGF. Arnkellow (talk) 20:58, 9 September 2020 (UTC)


 * I am deeply unconvinced it counts as a different publication. The Irish Daily Mail and Irish Sun are covered by their own UK parents' deprecations, for example. I must say, though, that a claim that treating the IDM as the DM is racism as an excuse for using the Daily Mail as a source is a new stretch - David Gerard (talk) 22:38, 9 September 2020 (UTC)


 * Read.The.Above.Again. Arnkellow (talk) 15:01, 10 September 2020 (UTC)

Pinging, following most recent edit to article. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 12:47, 10 September 2020 (UTC)


 * Both the Irish Daily Mail/Mail on Sunday and Daily Mail UK are owned by the same parent company, however they have different editorial staff, although the problem seems to have been solved for the most part in 2017, and 2019. The RFC states that "The UK Daily Mail is not to be confused with other publications named Daily Mail." Furthermore the polls are usually reaffirmed by secondary sources, although if some are not, I will search for them and add them. B. M. L. Peters (talk) 00:25, 19 September 2020 (UTC)


 * Everything that lives on dailymail.co.uk is covered, as are all editions of the Mail on Sunday. That line in the WP:RSP listing refers to unlinked publications (e.g. Charleston Daily Mail, Daily Mail Nigeria, etc) - it does not exclude other editions of the UK Daily Mail, which these are. I know because I added that text. It's a querulous reading to claim it does exclude the Irish editions of what is the same paper. A talk page cannot form a WP:LOCALCONSENSUS against the broad general consensus of three broad general RFCs on deprecation. I've noted this discussion at WP:RSN, to get more eyes on the issue - David Gerard (talk) 20:04, 28 November 2020 (UTC)


 * The decision on WP:RSP listing is that the UK Daily Mail may not be used as a source. You, however, have removed secondary sources from extra.ie, thejournal.ie, and galwaydaily.com, which merely mention the results of polls conducted by Ireland Thinks and commissioned by the Irish Daily Mail. As far as I can see, the RSP does not extend to treating the Daily Mail as an Orwellian unperson. It, and its stories, can still be reported on by third party sources, as happens here. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 21:49, 28 November 2020 (UTC)


 * Ireland Thinks polls are reported by multiple secondary sources different than the Daily Mail (even polling aggregators abroad, such as this one), and the polls by themselves have not been shown as being unreliable just because of the source that happens to commission them. Thus, pretending to enforce WP:DAILYMAIL in such a way here seems rather aggressive and contrary to encyclopedical purposes. DAILYMAIL even states that it should not be used as a source "when other more reliable sources exist" (which is the case here). As a result, these opinion polls should not be removed, IMO.  Impru 20 talk 10:19, 29 November 2020 (UTC)
 * There is also the issue that the polls themselves have not been conducted by the Daily Mail, but by a polling company, of which the Irish Daily Mail just gets to be the commissioner. That content, however, is reported by other secondary reliable sources as well. Aside of the aforementioned concerns from other users on whether DAILYMAIL applies to non-UK media, I don't get to understand how DAILYMAIL can even be of application to justify the massive removal of all opinion polls whose ultimate source is not the DM, sincerely.  Impru 20 talk 10:44, 29 November 2020 (UTC)

"Lead"
I've reverted the addition of a "lead" column.
 * We already have shading to show which party is in the lead;
 * The importance of a "lead" between two parties is pretty much irrelevant outside of a two-party or possibly three-party system; Ireland hasn't had single-party government in 40 years.
 * If someone does want to know the difference, the maths really isn't hard, so the column adds nothing;
 * While WP:OTHERSTUFFEXISTS, what other articles do isn't relevant here; that said, there is consensus to leave out a "lead" column, on Irish general election & opinion poll articles, which has existed since 2016 - see here and here;
 * Consensus may well change, but until then, we should follow WP:BRD - you were bold, it was reverted, we now discuss. Regards, Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 22:45, 4 April 2021 (UTC)

Also, I'd advise checking on the talk page prior to introducing major changes to an article. As a point of courtesy, if nothing else. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 23:00, 4 April 2021 (UTC)


 * First off I want to apologise that I didn't check the talk page to discuss the changes I made after you reverted them, I should have and it wasn't acceptable that I reverted without discussing it first.
 * Ultimately, while I may disagree with the consensus regarding the lead column I am not really in the mood to try and change this. However, the other additions I made I do intend to reintroduce, such as using Template:Opdrts for dates (I do actually want to change this to the fieldwork dates rather than the current end dates which provide no real valuable data) the formatting changes (such as the move to {| class="wikitable sortable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;") and the seperation of The pollster and the commissioner.

Below is the changes I am proposing (apart from the date changes).JDuggan (talk) 18:29, 5 April 2021 (UTC)


 * No worries at all; I'd have to check timestamps but I think my talk page addition was after the revert, anyway. Can you outline what benefits the proposed changes will bring to the article? And how much additional effort will be required for those who currently maintain the table? I've no way of knowing, since I've never seen them contribute directly here, but I'm assuming  is manually adding data to whatever is generating their graph, rather than it being a bot or scraper, but it might be.  Will a change interfere with that?  Fieldwork dates aren't always available; some news reports include them, many only include the final date of polling ("Polling was conducted up to last Friday"), and sometimes we have to go digging on poll companies' websites.  I've no objection to the separation of pollster and commissioner, as long as we can still sort the table by pollster and date, as we can at present. If we lose that ability, I'd oppose. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 18:59, 5 April 2021 (UTC)

Ireland Thinks poll, July 2021
Can anyone find a source for this? Can't find any online, and the Ireland Thinks website seems a little out of date; they don't appear to publish the full poll from any of the Mail on Sunday results, at least for the last year. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 12:07, 25 July 2021 (UTC)

Nobody has come back on this and I still can't find a reference to it myself, so I'm going to delete (or, well, comment it out for now). Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 19:56, 7 August 2021 (UTC)

Including notable events in the poll
If we look at other similar articles such as 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election, Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election, we see that it seems to be pretty commonplace that notable political events such as the change of leadership in a party and by-elections are noted in the table. Back in July 2021 I tried adding the 2021 Dublin Bay South by-election to the table but it was revert on the basis that it had been already agreed notable events wouldn't be included. Firstly, can I ask on what page was that agreement made, and secondly, are we still committed to that idea? If the government goes all the way to 2025, the polling table is going to be quite large; I feel that the inclusion of events helps make the table more readable giving them a natural break and avoids them being a "wall of numbers". Secondly, I imagine just as with those other articles, the polling section will ultimately have to be split off to it's own page due to its size. Thoughts? CeltBrowne (talk) 17:14, 17 December 2022 (UTC)
 * I disagree. Adding notable events will lead to clutter. Keep it clean and simple as table of opinion polls. Spleodrach (talk) 18:59, 17 December 2022 (UTC)
 * I note the current consensus is not to include them. I hadn't seen this discussion before adding them. I'd agree with that adding a few select events adds context to the poll numbers. I don't think it negatively affects any of the tables on the linked pages, for example. We could agree on the very select events to be included, though I'm happy to push back any further discussion until closer to the date of the election. On the split, Opinion polling for the next Irish general election exists as a redirect with possibilities, I'd recommend holding off until the dissolution of this Dáil, at which point this page will shift to the campaign, and thereafter the result. Iveagh Gardens (talk) 14:00, 15 June 2023 (UTC)


 * I would prefer to keep it as a simple table of opinion polls. We are inviting synthesis by adding in events we deem to be significant; and entering such lines breaks the ability to sort meaningfully by anything but date. As a compromise, how about shading the relevant date and adding a footnote along the lines of "First poll after Bloggs became leader of Birthday Party"? Agree on not using the redirect until at least until an election is called. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 15:07, 15 June 2023 (UTC)
 * I agree with Bastun, as I'd said before it's best to keep as a simple table of polls. Adding events would invariably lead to bloat. Fine with the suggestion about footnotes. Spleodrach (talk) 15:59, 15 June 2023 (UTC)
 * Isn't there just as much synthesis in determining significance of events in a footnote as in a row of a table? I'd be reluctant to add footnotes, I think they can get even bloatier, and actually run the risk of drawing undue significance to a particular poll, particularly given polling companies use different methodologies.
 * I doubt using separate rows would get too bloated, if anything it breaks up in a way that's easier to read, I do find it helpful for analysis myself, and I certainly find it helpful when reading polling tables from other countries. But I won't press the case for now unless there's more interest in them. Iveagh Gardens (talk) 17:27, 15 June 2023 (UTC)
 * If in doubt then leave it out. No compelling argument has been made for the inclusion of events. Spleodrach (talk) 22:21, 15 June 2023 (UTC)
 * We are inviting synthesis by adding in events we deem to be significant
 * We can keep it strictly to only the following:
 * Changes in party Leadership
 * Other elections (By-elections, Locals, Europeans)
 * Debates
 * Which is more or less the format Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election and Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election keep to.
 * At bare minimum, I think the inclusion of other elections should be done. CeltBrowne (talk) 22:53, 15 June 2023 (UTC)
 * I had added the two appointments of Taoiseach (June 2020 and December 2022), I'd suggest they are as significant as changes in leadership. As to no compelling argument, those in favour have made two arguments: that they add context to numbers, including changes in numbers; and that it breaks up the wall of numbers in a way that makes it easier to read and find dates. For these reasons, I find it helpful when reading these for other countries. But it looks like we need to find more support for this one! Iveagh Gardens (talk) 05:18, 16 June 2023 (UTC)

UK polling articles allow change of leader, other elections (by-elections, local elections) and debates only. Most polling articles don’t allow anything. Look at Opinion polling for the 2023 Spanish general election, for example. The inclusion of broader events is editorialising. It violates WP:OR by implying these events make a difference to the polling. Bondegezou (talk) 06:08, 16 June 2023 (UTC)
 * I agree, once one event is included, it's a slippery slope to lots more. Again the only arguements that I hear in favour is "I like it!". Just because the British article has events, doesn't mean we have to follow them. As Bondegezou pointed out, the majority don't allow it, so lets follow that (and the Spanish) example instead. Spleodrach (talk) 10:33, 16 June 2023 (UTC)
 * For some. I don't see too much value myself in a table that's only date-ordered, because the different methodologies used by the various polling companies often results in a positive or negative bias to particular parties. There is therefore no real benefit in looking at, say, the polls for the last quarter, where a party might get results of 4, 5, 2, 5, 6, 3, 5, 7, 4 (because the 9 polls were done by 3 companies, whose differing methods are always 'average', 'high', and 'low' for a particular party.) Instead, I would usually sort results by polling company, where I can see a consistent trend over time - company A:4, 5, 5; company B: 5, 6, 7; company C: 2, 3, 4, using the same results as before. If we break the table to include commentary/events, that ability is removed. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 11:53, 16 June 2023 (UTC)

Business Post Feb '24 poll
, can you check the a) polling dates, and b) numbers polled on the latest Business Post poll? The reference is paywalled. It was read out on the Brendan O'Connor Show as something like 1,009 people polled, with polling dates finishing during the week, not yesterday. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 11:42, 25 February 2024 (UTC)


 * Sorry, my mistake about the polling date. It was 16 Feb-21 Feb. I also wasn't aware the Business Post even had a paywall, because of, well, browser extensions. Annoyingly, other websites have not reported on the poll yet and RED C hasn't even released their report yet. I'm just going off of the Business Post article. What do you suggest we do with this poll? Remove it until this month's report is released and a non-paywalled website reports it? Lough Swilly (talk) 12:15, 25 February 2024 (UTC)


 * No, I'd leave it; we don't have the number polled for others in the table. Just put in a question mark, until we have a source. Cheers, Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 12:19, 25 February 2024 (UTC)


 * Just to note, too, the data-sort-value for the date should be the last date of poll; and the data-sort-value name for the polling company/publisher should just increment by one from the prior poll by that publisher. That value is what lets you sort by publisher so you can see all the RedC polls or all the Ireland Thinks polls together. I've update the latest ones. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 10:21, 26 February 2024 (UTC)

Sunday Independent March 2024 poll
I've added up the poll numbers multiple times just to be sure - the numbers they report add up to 101%... I don't know if there's anything to do about it, I just though I should mention it in case someone thinks it's wrong. Lough Swilly (talk) 18:12, 2 March 2024 (UTC)

Majority of 87 or 88 seats?
As one seat is allocated to the Ceann Comhairle, the seats needed for a majority should be 87 right? Boardwalk.Koi (talk) 14:42, 20 March 2024 (UTC)


 * No, it's half the total seats, plus one, so 88 is correct. See, e.g., Government of the 33rd Dáil. Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 15:20, 20 March 2024 (UTC)
 * The 2020 Irish general election page states a majority of 80 seats was needed, while half plus one would be 81.
 * There will be 173 voting seats in the next Dáil, so a composition of 87-Government, 86-Opposition, and 1-Ceann Comhairle, should be possible right? Boardwalk.Koi (talk) 16:40, 20 March 2024 (UTC)


 * God, I'm remembering the runup to the last election and interminable debates such as this one :-) No objection at all to you changing it to 87, but if a certain editor reappears here, expect more "debate" :-) <span style="font-family:Verdana, sans-serif">Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 10:28, 22 March 2024 (UTC)
 * My reading of it is that 174 seats, the government (or parties) will need 88 seats to govern, as 1 seat will go to the Ceann Comhairle, leaving 87-Govt and 86-Opp, and 1-CC. However, as has happened in the past, the govt could entice an opposition TD into being the CC, so the Govt then only needs 87. Our nearest neighbour, have (seats / 2) + 1, see Next United Kingdom general election. Hope this helps! Spleodrach (talk) 10:45, 22 March 2024 (UTC)

Sunday Indo poll, 24th March
Can someone with access to the Sunday Independent add in the values for last date of polling, number polled, and percentages for S-PBP and Aontú, please, for the 24th March poll? I don't have a sub and it's paywalled. <span style="font-family:Verdana, sans-serif">Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 12:02, 24 March 2024 (UTC)


 * Done. Not sure what the sample size is. Boardwalk.Koi (talk) 13:49, 24 March 2024 (UTC)


 * Thanks! I'll have a look during the week to see if Ireland Thinks puts it up on their website. <span style="font-family:Verdana, sans-serif">Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 15:31, 24 March 2024 (UTC)
 * I should have access to the print version of the Sunday Independent when it's uploaded to the Irish Newspaper Archive. I'll keep an eye out for it. Boardwalk.Koi (talk) 17:28, 25 March 2024 (UTC)

Include Independent Ireland in Polls
Given the rise in popularity of Independent Ireland in the last European Union Elections, they should be shown in the polls and not lumped into Independents/Others. 144.62.245.225 (talk) 15:00, 18 June 2024 (UTC)
 * The problem is, unless I've missed something, there are pretty much zero polls out there that show Independent Ireland's polling figures. It's not a case of us not showing them, it's a case of the polls not showing them. ser! (chat to me - see my edits) 15:11, 18 June 2024 (UTC)
 * The newest RedC poll has separate numbers for Independent Ireland on 5 percent - do we include them or lump them in with ind/other and include a little note? Lough Swilly (talk) 20:08, 29 June 2024 (UTC)


 * Where? The "newest" poll (which I've just commented out) just has the headline, and no figures at all? I'm presuming there was an earlier version which as been taken down, or something? I've commented out the newest entry until there are actual figures published.


 * Regarding the question asked by the IP, what we've done in previous election articles is to not include a new party formed after the prior general election (2020, with Aontú not included); or, we have broken the table in two, including the new parties in an election year table, and leaving them out of prior-year tables (Renua and SocDems, in the 2016 election). This would seem more useful than including a column with over 100 "Party did not exist" notes. I would be tempted to revert the addition of the new column added by . Thoughts? <span style="font-family:Verdana, sans-serif">Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 21:57, 29 June 2024 (UTC)
 * I felt it best to include them, as they are a distinctive portion of the electorate at 5%, while unfortunate they were not more apparent in prior polls, it has form from the 2016 polling regarding pbp and 2020 polling for Renua which both had a large amount of empty boxes. For the purposes of displaying information I believe it is most effective to keep them seperate, especially if they are outpolling other present parties. If they remain absent from future polls it might make an argument to remove them, but surely for now it is best to leave them in? New guy editor (talk) 22:22, 29 June 2024 (UTC)

"Will be on 25 March 2025"?
The opening sentence of the article confidently declares that the next generation will be on 25 March 2025. Definitive future tense. No qualification or conditionality. Etched in stone. Definitely will happen. 25 March 2025. And this despite the fact that such a date (in the body) is given as a possible "latest" date (not actual/definitive date). And as recently as earlier this month it was speculated that there could have been an election called during 2024. (With similar "snap" elections called in the UK and France.) And where the same source suggests that, if the current govt runs its full term, the next election could be in "early 2025". While 25 March 2025 might fall within the range of "early 2025", I can find no news or other sources which give this precise date. On what basis (reliable/verifiable refs) are we confidently declaring a definitive date? (Not a range. Or an outlying "latest date". But an immovable/concrete/specific date?) Guliolopez (talk) 13:49, 30 June 2024 (UTC)
 * The opening sentence of the article appears to declare that it'll be held by 25 March 2025, rather than that it will be held on that specific date. This appears to be based on the date of the Dáil meeting, how long the gov's term can run for and when they need to call an election as a result under the Electoral Act. I don't think this is an OR case at all, just a routine calculation. But even from this angle, there's that Irish Times article saying it. And one from BreakingNews.ie. ser! (chat to me - see my edits) 13:58, 30 June 2024 (UTC)


 * Exactly. It's explained pretty well in the Next_Irish_general_election section, and I'm unclear why all of the 'cn' and 'OR?' tags have been added. How is it OR to state what an act of the Oireachtas states? There are no unsourced predictions - the next general election must happen by (not "on") 22 March. <span style="font-family:Verdana, sans-serif">Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 16:57, 30 June 2024 (UTC)
 * I've changed the opening wording to must be held no later than rather than will be held by. I hope this is clearer. Note: it never said on. I also removed the tag on current relating to Taoiseach Simon Harris. Not sure why it was there, Harris is the incumbent and I have re-worded the sentence. Spleodrach (talk) 18:46, 30 June 2024 (UTC)
 * Hi. RE:
 * "opening sentence [..] appears to declare that it'll be held by 25 March 2025, rather than that it will be held on that specific date". Mea culpa. With apologies. I clearly (and stupidly) misread that sentence. I don't know how I did that. But have seemingly created more than a little unnecessary noise here.
 * "changed the opening wording to must be held no later than rather than will be held by". Thanks. It possibly wasn't needed. Except perhaps for visually impaired/unobservant readers like me. But that is clearer.
 * "there's that Irish Times article saying it. And one from BreakingNews.ie". Thanks. I've added the breakingnews.ie one also.
 * "I'm unclear why all of the 'cn' and 'OR?' tags have been added. Because, apparently, I didn't read it properly. Before getting on my high horse. Apologies again.
 * (Slinks away sheepishly...) Guliolopez (talk) 15:13, 1 July 2024 (UTC)
 * Ha, no worries, we've all been there! :-) <span style="font-family:Verdana, sans-serif">Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 22:39, 1 July 2024 (UTC)

Including a Government Support Column in the Opinion Polls Table?
Would people be supportive of including a column on the opinion poll table for overall government support? (FF+FG+Green support) as is the case in several other european election pages New guy editor (talk) 17:06, 19 July 2024 (UTC)


 * No, because it would be WP:OR. In most polls, people are asked "If there was a general election tomorrow, what party would you give your first preference to?", or words to that effect. Interpreting that to mean "X, Y and Z people expressed support for these three parties so therefore 52% support the government" is textbook WP:SYNTHESIS and WP:OR. I know Ireland Thinks specifically asks "What would be your preferred coalition out of these options?" and lists several, but not every company does that and we have never reported on the results of such a question. <span style="font-family:Verdana, sans-serif">Bastun Ėġáḍβáś₮ŭŃ! 11:11, 20 July 2024 (UTC)